Sunray Engineering Group Ltd (8616) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Sunray Engineering Group Ltd HK$0.13, price HK$0.10, upside +29.7%, quality 72 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0260 – HK$0.1650 · fair‑value band HK$0.1198 – HK$0.1297 · the HK$0.1000 price screens below the HK$0.1297 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Sunray Engineering Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the provision of building protection works, and supply of building protection products in Hong Kong, Macau, and Mainland China.
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Sunray Engineering Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the provision of building protection works, and supply of building protection products in Hong Kong, Macau, and Mainland China. The company provides selection and use of building protection products for protection against water, thermal, acoustic, and fire; and identifies, sources, promotes, and distributes suitable building protection products. It also offers waterproofing, tiling, flooring, and other products for residential and commercial buildings, and community facilities, such as sports centres, theatre, hospitals, power station and other facilities. The company was founded in 1988 and is based in Kowloon, Hong Kong. Sunray Engineering Group Limited operates as a subsidiary of Ultra Success Industries Limited.
Stock analysis
Sunray Engineering Group Ltd (8616) currently trades at HK$0.1000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1297, implying the stock looks roughly 22.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$0.3000 per share, and 17 of the 22 models we run sit above the HK$0.1000 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.0500, and 5 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.1198 (bear) to HK$0.1297 (bull), the price of HK$0.1000 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Sunray Engineering Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$177M in FY2026 versus HK$200M in FY2022, a compound −2.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$4.2M in FY2026, compounding −21.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap HK$100M (≈ $12.7M) · P/S ratio 0.55 · Net margin 2.4% · Return on equity 2.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.4% · Operating margin 3.8% · Revenue (TTM) HK$177M · Revenue growth (YoY) +7.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 156% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at 30%, 8616 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.1198Fair Value HK$0.1297Bull HK$0.1297
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−19.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−19.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 4%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.4%/yr over ~6Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Sunray Engineering Group Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 802 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+29.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2.4% · Below median
Return on assets1.7% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)2.4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)3.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7.6% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sunray Engineering Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8616
Frequently asked questions
Is Sunray Engineering Group Ltd (8616) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1297 versus a price of HK$0.1000, about +30% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 8616?
Our model-based fair value for Sunray Engineering Group Ltd is HK$0.1297 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.1000.
What is the quality score of 8616?
Sunray Engineering Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sunray Engineering Group Ltd (8616)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.1297 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.1198, optimistic scenario HK$0.1297. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sunray Engineering Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.1297, about +30% upside versus a price of HK$0.1000 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.1198, optimistic scenario HK$0.1297. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sunray Engineering Group Ltd (8616)?
Sunray Engineering Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$177M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sunray Engineering Group Ltd (8616)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sunray Engineering Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.2 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 8616 use?
Our models discount Sunray Engineering Group Ltd at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.13, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sunray Engineering Group Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sunray Engineering Group Ltd (8616) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sunray Engineering Group Ltd grew -0.2 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sunray Engineering Group Ltd (8616) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sunray Engineering Group Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sunray Engineering Group Ltd (8616)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 29.55 %: that much free cash flow Sunray Engineering Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sunray Engineering Group Ltd (8616)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sunray Engineering Group Ltd it is HK$0.1297 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.1000. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sunray Engineering Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 8616 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.1000, fair value HK$0.1297, a gap of about +30% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8616?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.1000); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.1297). For Sunray Engineering Group Ltd the two are HK$0.0297 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sunray Engineering Group Ltd worth?
The market values Sunray Engineering Group Ltd at about HK$100M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.1000; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.1297 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8616?
Our models span a range for Sunray Engineering Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.1198, base HK$0.1297, optimistic HK$0.1297 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.1000). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sunray Engineering Group Ltd (8616)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sunray Engineering Group Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 2.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8616 from its 52-week high?
Sunray Engineering Group Ltd trades at HK$0.1000, about 5% below its 52-week high of HK$0.1050 and 156% above the low of HK$0.0390 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.1297 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sunray Engineering Group Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sunray Engineering Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.1000, calculated fair value HK$0.1297 (+30%), Quality Score 72/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8616 calculated?
We run Sunray Engineering Group Ltd through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.1297, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Sunray Engineering Group Ltd currently trades 23 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sunray Engineering Group Ltd (8616)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.1000. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.1297, about +30% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sunray Engineering Group Ltd right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (72/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.1198). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The models converge in a tight band (HK$0.1198 to HK$0.1297), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Sunray Engineering Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Sunray Engineering Group Ltd (8616)?
The market capitalisation of Sunray Engineering Group Ltd is HK$100M (≈ $12.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sunray Engineering Group Ltd (8616)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sunray Engineering Group Ltd is 0.55 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Sunray Engineering Group Ltd (8616)?
The net margin of Sunray Engineering Group Ltd is 2.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sunray Engineering Group Ltd (8616)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sunray Engineering Group Ltd is 2.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sunray Engineering Group Ltd (8616)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sunray Engineering Group Ltd is 2.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sunray Engineering Group Ltd (8616)?
The operating margin of Sunray Engineering Group Ltd is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sunray Engineering Group Ltd (8616)?
Revenue at Sunray Engineering Group Ltd is growing +7.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sunray Engineering Group Ltd (8616)?
Earnings per share at Sunray Engineering Group Ltd are growing −21.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Sunray Engineering Group Ltd (8616) hold?
Sunray Engineering Group Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$56.4M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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