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Novacon Technology Group Ltd (8635) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Novacon Technology Group Ltd HK$0.30, price HK$0.24, upside +21.9%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? Yes
Good quality? Yes
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Technology · HK · ISIN KYG6673A1031

NT Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Novacon Technology Group Ltd

8635 · HK

UndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.

✓Fair value HK$0.2975 · Undervalued (+21.9%)

!Quality 53/100

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +32.6 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 3.3% net margin (TTM)

!negative free cash flow

✓Ranks above peers (8/12)

!Narrow moat 32/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

!Weak on past: 28 out of 100

26 models, one by oneBear HK$0.1530 to bull HK$0.4675 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 53/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.0481 – HK$1.75 · fair‑value band HK$0.1530 – HK$0.4675 · the HK$0.2440 price screens below the HK$0.2975 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Elephant Holdings Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the development and provision of financial trading solutions. It operates through three segments: Financial trading solutions and other IT services, Bullion trading services, and AI-driven solutions. The company offers project-based, customised AI analytics and technology solutions to PRC-based customers. It also provides financial trading solutions that enable the trading of OTC-traded instruments, and exchange-traded instruments and fund management; trading systems, algo trading tools, and digital asset management platforms; other IT services; and trading platform equipped with advanced charting tools for trading gold and silver products. In addition, the company offers licensing and maintenance services; and initial set up and customization services, as well as sells computer software and hardware products. Further, it is involved in the development and supply of resource allocation, planning, scheduling, and management of software and services; provision of bullion trading services; properties investment; development of software and application; cryptocurrencies trading services; and development and implementation of artificial intelligence driven solutions. The company was formerly known as Novacon Technology Group Limited and changed its name to Elephant Holdings Group Limited in June 2025. Elephant Holdings Group Limited was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Tsim Sha Tsui, Hong Kong.

Stock analysis

Novacon Technology Group Ltd (8635) currently trades at HK$0.2440, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.2975, implying the stock looks roughly 18.0% undervalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$0.8400 per share, and 11 of the 17 models we run sit above the HK$0.2440 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.1400, and 6 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$0.1530 (bear) to HK$0.4675 (bull), the price of HK$0.2440 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Novacon Technology Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$175M in FY2026 versus HK$50.0M in FY2022, a compound +36.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$5.8M in FY2026, compounding −15.2%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap HK$139M (≈ $17.7M) · P/E ratio 29.0 · P/S ratio 0.96 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0100 · Net margin 3.3% · Return on equity 7.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.9% · Operating margin 8.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 86% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at 22%, 8635 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.1530 Fair Value HK$0.2975 Bull HK$0.4675

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

Residual Income HK$0.1700 HK$0.1700 HK$0.1800 74

EPV HK$0.1900 HK$0.2200 HK$0.2400 70

ROIC Compounder HK$0.1900 HK$0.2300 HK$0.2900 68

All 17 models by family

DCF Models

Owner Earnings HK$0.3900 HK$0.8400 HK$1.75 66

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$0.0800 HK$0.5700 HK$0.8000 61

Lynch FV HK$0.3000 HK$0.4200 HK$0.5500 59

PEG = 1.0 HK$0.3000 HK$0.4200 HK$0.5500 55

EPV HK$0.1900 HK$0.2200 HK$0.2400 70

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM HK$0.4700 HK$0.9400 HK$1.42 64

DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.4700 HK$0.8100 HK$0.9900 65

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$0.2500 HK$0.3400 HK$0.4200 63

P/S Multiple HK$0.1500 HK$0.2100 HK$0.2600 58

P/B Multiple HK$0.1500 HK$0.2100 HK$0.2600 55

EV/EBIT HK$0.3900 HK$0.5100 HK$0.6400 63

EV/EBITDA HK$0.5000 HK$0.6600 HK$0.8100 64

EV/Revenue HK$0.2100 HK$0.2900 HK$0.3700 51

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$0.1100 HK$0.1400 HK$0.2100 51

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$0.1700 HK$0.1700 HK$0.1800 74

ROIC Compounder HK$0.1900 HK$0.2300 HK$0.2900 68

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.4300 HK$0.6100 HK$0.7900 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 12

Profitability 39

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 100

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 0

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 84

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 91

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 26

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 10

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 1

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 19

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 58/100

The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Revenue growth 1 year

+875.5%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+49.3%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+32.6%

Start year 2021 (pandemic)

Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+16.5%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.

−14.6%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year−14.6%

Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−14.6% vs −9.2%, slowing

Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 6%

Start year 2021 (pandemic)

⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 9.0%/yr over ~7Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 696 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures

Overall it ranks above its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 53 · Below median

Fair Value upside +21.9% · Above median

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 7.1% · Above median

Return on assets 3.5% · Above median

Net margin (TTM) 3.3% · Below median

Operating margin (TTM) 8.1% · Above median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 15.4% · Above median

Dividend yield (TTM) 18.5% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 29.0× · Pricier than median

P/B 1.37× · Cheaper than median

P/S (TTM) 0.80× · Cheapest 25%

EV/EBITDA 16.6× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)63 · sector 27

FUTURE (revenue growth)77 · sector 39

PAST (return on equity)28 · sector 16

HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 97

DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 30

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Novacon Technology Group Ltd · Fair Value
HK$0.2975 +18%Fair Value
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<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8635" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Novacon Technology Group Ltd · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">HK$0.2975</b> <span style="color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;font-size:14px">+18%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Novacon Technology Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8635

Frequently asked questions

Is Novacon Technology Group Ltd (8635) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.2975 versus a price of HK$0.2440, about +22% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of 8635?

Our model-based fair value for Novacon Technology Group Ltd is HK$0.2975 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.2440.

What is the quality score of 8635?

Novacon Technology Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Novacon Technology Group Ltd (8635)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.2975 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.1530, optimistic scenario HK$0.4675. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Novacon Technology Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$0.2975, about +22% upside versus a price of HK$0.2440 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.1530, optimistic scenario HK$0.4675. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Novacon Technology Group Ltd (8635)?

Novacon Technology Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$175M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of Novacon Technology Group Ltd (8635)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Novacon Technology Group Ltd it is HK$0.2975 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.2440. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Novacon Technology Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 27, 2026, 8635 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.2440, fair value HK$0.2975, a gap of about +22% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of 8635?

No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.2440); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.2975). For Novacon Technology Group Ltd the two are HK$0.0535 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Novacon Technology Group Ltd worth?

The market values Novacon Technology Group Ltd at about HK$139M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.2440; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.2975 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8635?

Our models span a range for Novacon Technology Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.1530, base HK$0.2975, optimistic HK$0.4675 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.2440). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of 8635?

Novacon Technology Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.0 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.2975 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 16.6.

How solid is the balance sheet of Novacon Technology Group Ltd (8635)?

Balance-sheet figures for Novacon Technology Group Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 7.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is 8635 from its 52-week high?

Novacon Technology Group Ltd trades at HK$0.2440, about 86% below its 52-week high of HK$1.75 and 8% above the low of HK$0.2260 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.2975 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Novacon Technology Group Ltd?

From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Novacon Technology Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.2440, calculated fair value HK$0.2975 (+22%), Quality Score 53/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of 8635 calculated?

We run Novacon Technology Group Ltd through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.2975, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Novacon Technology Group Ltd currently trades 18 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Novacon Technology Group Ltd (8635)?

The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.2440. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.2975, about +22% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Novacon Technology Group Ltd right now?

The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.1530 to HK$0.4675). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Novacon Technology Group Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Novacon Technology Group Ltd (8635)?

The market capitalisation of Novacon Technology Group Ltd is HK$139M (≈ $17.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Novacon Technology Group Ltd (8635)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Novacon Technology Group Ltd is 0.96 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Novacon Technology Group Ltd (8635)?

Earnings per share at Novacon Technology Group Ltd are HK$−0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the net margin of Novacon Technology Group Ltd (8635)?

The net margin of Novacon Technology Group Ltd is 3.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Novacon Technology Group Ltd (8635)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Novacon Technology Group Ltd is 7.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Novacon Technology Group Ltd (8635)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Novacon Technology Group Ltd is −4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Novacon Technology Group Ltd (8635)?

The operating margin of Novacon Technology Group Ltd is 8.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Novacon Technology Group Ltd (8635)?

Revenue at Novacon Technology Group Ltd is growing +15.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +49.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Novacon Technology Group Ltd (8635)?

Earnings per share at Novacon Technology Group Ltd are growing −44.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does Novacon Technology Group Ltd (8635) generate?

The free cash flow of Novacon Technology Group Ltd is −HK$38.0M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net cash does Novacon Technology Group Ltd (8635) hold?

Novacon Technology Group Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$6.5M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.

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