Ideal Bike (8933) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · TW · Market cap 1.5B TWD
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 12 days ago
Share price −3.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and trading another 280% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (1.48 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (0.7800 TWD to 1.48 TWD) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 4.25 TWD – 24.95 TWD · fair‑value band 0.7800 TWD – 1.48 TWD · the 4.48 TWD price screens above the 1.18 TWD fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Ideal Bike (8933) currently trades at 4.48 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1.18 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 73.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Ideal Bike generated revenue of 1.9B TWD at a net margin of -24.8%. Revenue declined 34.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -25.3%. Net debt stands at 1.1B TWD. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 0.7800 TWD (bear case) to 1.48 TWD (bull case); at 4.48 TWD, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at -74%, 8933 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (3.47 TWD) versus Dividend Discount (0.7600 TWD). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Ideal Bike Corporation manufactures and sells bicycles and related parts in China, Europe, Asia, America, and internationally. It also engages in the manufacture, machining, assembly, and domestic sale of bicycles, indoor and outdoor sports vehicles, children's bicycles, mini scooters and their accessories and parts.
Full company description
Ideal Bike Corporation manufactures and sells bicycles and related parts in China, Europe, Asia, America, and internationally. It also engages in the manufacture, machining, assembly, and domestic sale of bicycles, indoor and outdoor sports vehicles, children's bicycles, mini scooters and their accessories and parts. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Taichung, Taiwan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ideal Bike reported revenue of 2.2B TWD in FY2025 versus 4.6B TWD in FY2021, a compound −16.9%/yr. Reported net income was −453M TWD in FY2025.
8933 screens 74% overvalued. Compare with ANTA Sports Products Limited →
Peer Group
Leisure · 194 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANTA Sports Products Limited 2020 | HK$72.80 | HK$119.82 | +65% |
| Pop Mart International Group 9992 | HK$151.00 | HK$227.30 | +51% |
| Amer Sports, Inc AS | $33.03 | $16.16 | -51% |
| Hasbro, Inc HAS | $94.89 | $81.97 | -14% |
| Life Time Group LTH | $45.40 | $15.61 | -66% |
| Acushnet Holdings GOLF | $89.10 | $36.89 | -59% |
| Ninebot Limited 689009 | ¥44.94 | ¥39.73 | -12% |
| Li Ning Company 2331 | HK$14.25 | HK$29.50 | +107% |
| Mattel, Inc MAT | $14.65 | $18.93 | +29% |
| Planet Fitness, Inc PLNT | $48.26 | $52.62 | +9% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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