JD.com Inc. (89618) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Discretionary · HK · Market cap 356B CNY

A solid business, but screening 25% overvalued on our models.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥92.47). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (3 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

38‑month range ¥69.22 – ¥157.86 · fair‑value band ¥54.26 – ¥92.47 · the ¥98.60 price screens above the ¥73.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.

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Analysis

JD.com Inc. (89618) currently trades at ¥98.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥73.98, implying the stock looks roughly 25.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Discretionary sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, JD.com Inc. generated revenue of 1.3T CNY at a net margin of 1.1%. Revenue grew 4.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 42.5B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥54.26 (bear case) to ¥92.47 (bull case); at ¥98.60, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Discretionary peers we cover trades at -41% fair-value upside, at -25%, 89618 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥164.41) versus Economic Profit (¥30.01). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

JD.com, Inc. operates as a supply chain-based technology and service provider in the People's Republic of China and Europe. It operates through three segments: JD Retail, JD Logistics, and New Businesses.

Full company description

JD.com, Inc. operates as a supply chain-based technology and service provider in the People's Republic of China and Europe. It operates through three segments: JD Retail, JD Logistics, and New Businesses. The company provides home appliances; mobile handsets and other digital products; computers, including desktop, laptop, and other various products, as well as printers and other office equipment; furniture and household goods; apparel; cosmetics and other personal care items; and pet products. It offers women's shoes, bags, watches, jewelry, and luxury goods; men's shoes, sports gear, and fitness equipment; automobiles and accessories; maternal and childcare products; toys and musical instruments; food, beverages, and fresh produce; gifts, flowers, and plants; and pharmaceutical and healthcare products, such as OCT pharmaceutical products, nutritional supplements, healthcare services, and other healthcare equipment. In addition, the company provides books, e-books, music, movies, and other media products; virtual goods consisting of online travel agency, attraction tickets, and prepaid phone cards and game cards; industrial products; and installation and maintenance services. Further, it offers online marketplace services for third-party merchants; marketing services; and omni-channel solutions to customers and offline retailers, as well as online healthcare services. Additionally, the company develops, owns, and manages its logistics facilities and other real estate properties to support third parties; and offers asset management services and integrated service platform; leasing of storage facilities and related management services, as well as engages in online retail business; technology-driven supply chain solutions; and logistics services. The company was formerly known as 360buy Jingdong Inc. and changed its name to JD.com, Inc. in January 2014. JD.com, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

JD.com Inc. reported revenue of ¥1.3T in FY2025 versus ¥952B in FY2021, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥19.1B in FY2025.

89618 screens 25% overvalued. Compare with Amazon.com, Inc →

Peer Group

Internet Retail · 107 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.