Paragon Union Bhd (9407) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Paragon Union Bhd stock MYR 0.49, price MYR 1.12, that is 56.3% below the price, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1.12 MYR – 4.95 MYR · fair‑value band 0.3700 MYR – 0.6200 MYR · the 1.12 MYR price screens above the 0.4900 MYR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Paragon Union Berhad, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacturing and trading of car and commercial carpets, and automotive components, recycling and related activities. The company operates through three segments: Automotive, Commercial, and Recycling.
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The company offers commercial carpets, such as woven axminster, machine and hand tufted, wilton, and mosque carpets, as well as carpet tiles and rugs for use in 5 star hotels, commercial buildings, offices, mosques, and government projects.
It also provides automotive products, carpet mats, insulators/silencers, trim parts, and carpet floors.
In addition, the company is involved in the development of properties; provides management services; and trading of recycled metal and related materials, such as aluminum ingots and pallets, carbon block and powder, and other products.
It operates in Malaysia, Australia, China, Combodia, Hong Kong, Mozambique, Thailand, Pakistan, and internationally. Paragon Union Berhad was incorporated in 1994 and is based in Cheras, Malaysia.
Stock analysis
Paragon Union Bhd (9407) currently trades at 1.12 MYR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.4900 MYR, 56% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 0.6950 MYR per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the 1.12 MYR price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 0.2950 MYR, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 0.3700 MYR (bear) to 0.6200 MYR (bull), the price of 1.12 MYR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Paragon Union Bhd reported revenue of 127M MYR in FY2025 versus 40.4M MYR in FY2021, a compound +33.0%/yr. Reported net income was 2.3M MYR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 113M MYR (≈ $27.9M) Micro · P/E ratio 56.0 · P/S ratio 0.89 · EPS (TTM) 0.0200 MYR · Net margin 1.8% · Return on equity 5.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.9% (5-year average) · Operating margin −1.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 77% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −56%, 9407 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear0.3700 MYRFair Value 0.4900 MYRBull0.6200 MYR
Price 1.12 MYR · Downside -56.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.0172 MYR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+102.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.6% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in MYR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in MYR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−12.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−12.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−12.4% vs −4.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−14% → 9%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.4%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Malaysia: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 655 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside−56.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.1% · Below median
Return on assets1.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)1.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)−1.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)14.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)56.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.93× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)0.89× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)9.4× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA6.9× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)74· sector 34
PAST (return on equity)20· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 39
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Paragon Union Bhd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9407
Frequently asked questions
Is Paragon Union Bhd (9407) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 0.4900 MYR versus a price of 1.12 MYR, about 56% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9407?
Our model-based fair value for Paragon Union Bhd is 0.4900 MYR (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1.12 MYR.
What is the quality score of 9407?
Paragon Union Bhd has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Paragon Union Bhd (9407)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 0.4900 MYR (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 0.3700 MYR, optimistic scenario 0.6200 MYR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Paragon Union Bhd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 0.4900 MYR, about 56% lower versus a price of 1.12 MYR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 0.3700 MYR, optimistic scenario 0.6200 MYR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Paragon Union Bhd (9407)?
Paragon Union Bhd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 127M MYR (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Paragon Union Bhd (9407)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Paragon Union Bhd would have to grow free cash flow by -3.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +26.3 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9407 use?
Our models discount Paragon Union Bhd at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.20, country premium for Malaysia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Paragon Union Bhd that is -3.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Paragon Union Bhd (9407) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Paragon Union Bhd grew +26.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -3.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Paragon Union Bhd (9407) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Paragon Union Bhd (-3.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Paragon Union Bhd (9407)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.60 %: that much free cash flow Paragon Union Bhd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Paragon Union Bhd (9407)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Paragon Union Bhd it is 0.4900 MYR per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of 1.12 MYR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Paragon Union Bhd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, 9407 trades above its calculated fair value: price 1.12 MYR, fair value 0.4900 MYR, a gap of about −56% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9407?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1.12 MYR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (0.4900 MYR). For Paragon Union Bhd the two are 0.6300 MYR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Paragon Union Bhd worth?
The market values Paragon Union Bhd at about 113M MYR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is 1.12 MYR; our models calculate a fair value of 0.4900 MYR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9407?
Our models span a range for Paragon Union Bhd: cautious scenario 0.3700 MYR, base 0.4900 MYR, optimistic 0.6200 MYR per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price 1.12 MYR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9407?
Paragon Union Bhd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 56.0 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 0.4900 MYR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 6.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Paragon Union Bhd (9407)?
Balance-sheet figures for Paragon Union Bhd (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 5.1%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9407 from its 52-week high?
Paragon Union Bhd trades at 1.12 MYR, about 77% below its 52-week high of 4.95 MYR and at the low of 1.12 MYR (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 0.4900 MYR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Paragon Union Bhd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Paragon Union Bhd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price 1.12 MYR, calculated fair value 0.4900 MYR (−56%), Quality Score 51/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9407 calculated?
We run Paragon Union Bhd through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 0.4900 MYR builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Paragon Union Bhd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Paragon Union Bhd (9407)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 1.12 MYR. Our model-based fair value is 0.4900 MYR, about 56% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Paragon Union Bhd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (0.6200 MYR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Paragon Union Bhd
How large is the market capitalisation of Paragon Union Bhd (9407)?
The market capitalisation of Paragon Union Bhd is 113M MYR (≈ $27.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Paragon Union Bhd (9407)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Paragon Union Bhd is 0.89 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Paragon Union Bhd (9407)?
Earnings per share at Paragon Union Bhd are 0.0200 MYR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 56.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Paragon Union Bhd (9407)?
The net margin of Paragon Union Bhd is 1.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Paragon Union Bhd (9407)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Paragon Union Bhd is 5.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Paragon Union Bhd (9407)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Paragon Union Bhd is −2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Paragon Union Bhd (9407)?
The operating margin of Paragon Union Bhd is −1.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Paragon Union Bhd (9407)?
Revenue at Paragon Union Bhd is growing +14.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Paragon Union Bhd (9407) carry?
The net debt of Paragon Union Bhd is 1.6M MYR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 3, 2026