Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd (9516) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd stock SAR 23.34, price SAR 29.00, upside -19.5%, quality 69 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value 30%+ above price?No
Quality 50+?Yes
In an uptrend?No
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
53‑month range 21.34 SAR – 76.46 SAR · fair‑value band 17.31 SAR – 30.34 SAR · the 29.00 SAR price screens above the 23.34 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 29, 2026.
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Natural Gas Distribution Company distributes natural gas through pipelines in Saudi Arabia. It also operates, maintains, and repairs pipes and gas pipelines, as well as engages in the wholesale of gaseous fuels.
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The company serves factories located in the second industrial city in Riyadh with dry gas. Natural Gas Distribution Company was founded in 2000 and is based in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd (9516) currently trades at 29.00 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 23.34 SAR, 19.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 25.81 SAR per share, and 6 of the 26 models we run sit above the 29.00 SAR price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 8.05 SAR, and 20 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 17.31 SAR (bear) to 30.34 SAR (bull), the price of 29.00 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd reported revenue of 149M SAR in FY2025 versus 89.6M SAR in FY2021, a compound +13.6%/yr. Reported net income was 7.6M SAR in FY2025, compounding +28.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 145M SAR (≈ $38.6M) Micro · P/E ratio 9.7 · P/S ratio 0.97 · EPS (TTM) 2.98 SAR · Net margin 9.7% · Return on equity 23.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.7% · Operating margin 10.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at −20%, 9516 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear17.31 SARFair Value 23.34 SARBull30.34 SAR
Price 29.00 SAR · Upside -19.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (2.47 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.83/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+35.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ −3.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 3%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.3%/yr over ~6Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 104% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.6% a year for the price.
Compare Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 109 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−19.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.4% · Above median
Return on assets7.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)5.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)3.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)32.5% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9516
Frequently asked questions
Is Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd (9516) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 23.34 SAR versus a price of 29.00 SAR, about −20% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9516?
Our model-based fair value for Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd is 23.34 SAR (as of Oct 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 29.00 SAR.
What is the quality score of 9516?
Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd (9516)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 23.34 SAR (as of Oct 29, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 17.31 SAR, optimistic scenario 30.34 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 23.34 SAR, about −20% upside versus a price of 29.00 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 17.31 SAR, optimistic scenario 30.34 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd (9516)?
Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 154M SAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd (9516)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +1.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.8 % per year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9516 use?
Our models discount Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.20, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd that is +1.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd (9516) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd grew +10.8 % a year. The price currently implies +1.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd (9516) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd (+1.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd (9516)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.96 %: that much free cash flow Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd (9516)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd it is 23.34 SAR per share (as of Oct 29, 2026), against a price of 29.00 SAR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 29, 2026, 9516 trades above its calculated fair value: price 29.00 SAR, fair value 23.34 SAR, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9516?
No. The price is what the market pays today (29.00 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (23.34 SAR). For Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd the two are 5.66 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd worth?
The market values Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd at about 145M SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 29, 2026). Per share that is 29.00 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 23.34 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9516?
Our models span a range for Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd: cautious scenario 17.31 SAR, base 23.34 SAR, optimistic 30.34 SAR per share (as of Oct 29, 2026, price 29.00 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9516?
Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.7 (as of Oct 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 23.34 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.3, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 14.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd (9516)?
Balance-sheet figures for Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd (as of Oct 29, 2026): return on equity 12.4%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9516 from its 52-week high?
Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd trades at 29.00 SAR, about 18% below its 52-week high of 35.38 SAR and 36% above the low of 21.34 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 23.34 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Atmos Energy Corporation, NiSource Inc, Uniper SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 29, 2026: price 29.00 SAR, calculated fair value 23.34 SAR (−20%), Quality Score 69/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9516 calculated?
We run Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 23.34 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd (9516)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was 29.00 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 23.34 SAR, about −20% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd (9516)?
The market capitalisation of Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd is 145M SAR (≈ $38.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd (9516)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd is 0.97 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd (9516)?
Earnings per share at Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd are 2.98 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd (9516)?
The net margin of Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd is 9.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd (9516)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd is 23.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd (9516)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd is 3.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd (9516)?
The operating margin of Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd is 10.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd (9516)?
Revenue at Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd is growing +6.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd (9516)?
Earnings per share at Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd are growing +325% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd (9516) hold?
Natural Gas Distribution Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 3.0M SAR net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Oct 29, 2026