JD.com, Inc (9618) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$318B (≈ $40.5B) · ISIN KYG8208B1014

What is JD.com, Inc really worth?

JC JD.com, Inc 9618 · HK

PriceHK$110.40

Fair ValueHK$92.66

Upside−16.1%

Quality59/100

A solid business, but trading 19% above our fair value of HK$92.66.

As of Sep 2, 2026, the fair value of JD.com, Inc is HK$92.66 per share against a price of HK$110.40, so the fair value sits 16% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

Watch JD.com, Inc for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card. Watch for free

Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +11.3 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 1.1% net margin

!Narrow moat 39/100

For context

·6.34% dividend yield

Evidence: High Range HK$76.83 – HK$117.69

Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 4 days ago

Fair value updated Sep 2, 2026, revised from HK$114.51 to HK$92.66 (−19.1%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −15.1% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$75.05 – HK$314.60 · fair‑value band HK$76.83 – HK$117.69 · the HK$110.40 price screens above the HK$92.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Analysis

JD.com, Inc (9618) currently trades at HK$110.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$92.66, implying the stock looks roughly 19.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$199.36 per share, and 9 of the 25 models we run sit above the HK$110.40 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$36.39, and 16 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, JD.com, Inc generated revenue of HK$1.3T at a net margin of 1.1%. Revenue grew 4.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$42.5B. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$76.83 (bear case) to HK$117.69 (bull case); at HK$110.40, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −55% fair-value upside, at −16%, 9618 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.7057 per share, which is 0.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

FCF DCF best evidence HK$58.11 HK$75.77 HK$133.49 78

Growth DCF HK$56.46 HK$81.85 HK$135.38 76

Residual Income HK$65.12 HK$70.91 HK$93.46 75

All 25 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF best evidence HK$58.11 HK$75.77 HK$133.49 78

Owner Earnings HK$111.34 HK$221.56 HK$463.27 70

5Y Revenue Exit HK$45.59 HK$56.56 HK$78.73 73

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$67.12 HK$101.18 HK$166.44 73

5Y P/E Exit HK$116.61 HK$239.07 HK$405.80 67

10Y Revenue Exit HK$48.63 HK$67.25 HK$81.30 67

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$65.00 HK$112.60 HK$203.28 65

10Y P/E Exit HK$101.48 HK$216.86 HK$427.88 59

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$43.67 HK$304.52 HK$427.34 60

Lynch FV HK$104.60 HK$149.43 HK$194.25 58

PEG = 1.0 HK$104.60 HK$149.43 HK$194.25 55

EPV HK$35.32 HK$36.39 HK$37.33 72

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM HK$33.52 HK$73.19 HK$123.14 63

DDM Multi-Stage HK$33.52 HK$59.95 HK$76.28 64

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$105.95 HK$141.27 HK$176.59 61

P/S Multiple HK$81.87 HK$109.16 HK$136.45 56

P/B Multiple HK$81.87 HK$109.16 HK$136.45 53

EV/EBIT HK$45.58 HK$51.01 HK$56.44 65

EV/EBITDA HK$69.61 HK$83.05 HK$96.49 66

EV/Revenue HK$40.27 HK$44.98 HK$49.69 53

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$37.80 HK$50.65 HK$75.60 52

Growth DCF

Growth DCF HK$56.46 HK$81.85 HK$135.38 76

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$65.12 HK$70.91 HK$93.46 75

ROIC Compounder HK$35.32 HK$36.39 HK$37.33 71

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$139.55 HK$199.36 HK$259.17 66

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$199.36) versus Economic Profit (HK$36.39). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).

Notify me when 9618 reaches fair value

Put 9618 on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.

Set up alert →

Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.

Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 21.8 as of Jul 19, 2026

P/S ratio 0.33 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) HK$8.03 price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.8

Dividend yield 6.3% payout 87.1%

Net margin 1.5% FY2025

Return on equity 6.0% TTM

More key figures

Profitability

Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9% avg 5y

Operating margin 1.2% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) HK$1.3T TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) +4.9% 3y avg +6.8%

EPS growth (YoY) −50.7%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow HK$4.8B FY2025

Net cash HK$42.5B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52

Profitability 48

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 57

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 17

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 57

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 88

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 77

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 46

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 32

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 100

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Full company description

JD.com, Inc. operates as a supply chain-based technology and service provider in the People's Republic of China and Europe. It operates through three segments: JD Retail, JD Logistics, and New Businesses. The company provides home appliances; mobile handsets and other digital products; computers, including desktop, laptop, and other various products, as well as printers and other office equipment; furniture and household goods; apparel; cosmetics and other personal care items; and pet products. It offers women's shoes, bags, watches, jewelry, and luxury goods; men's shoes, sports gear, and fitness equipment; automobiles and accessories; maternal and childcare products; toys and musical instruments; food, beverages, and fresh produce; gifts, flowers, and plants; and pharmaceutical and healthcare products, such as OCT pharmaceutical products, nutritional supplements, healthcare services, and other healthcare equipment. In addition, the company provides books, e-books, music, movies, and other media products; virtual goods consisting of online travel agency, attraction tickets, and prepaid phone cards and game cards; industrial products; and installation and maintenance services. Further, it offers online marketplace services for third-party merchants; marketing services; and omni-channel solutions to customers and offline retailers, as well as online healthcare services. Additionally, the company develops, owns, and manages its logistics facilities and other real estate properties to support third parties; and offers asset management services and integrated service platform; leasing of storage facilities and related management services, as well as engages in online retail business; technology-driven supply chain solutions; and logistics services. The company was formerly known as 360buy Jingdong Inc. and changed its name to JD.com, Inc. in January 2014. JD.com, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

JD.com, Inc reported revenue of 1.3T CNY in FY2025 versus 952B CNY in FY2021, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was 19.1B CNY in FY2025.

Growth Quality 62/100

The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

HK$1.3T

Latest YoY

+10.0%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+6.8%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+11.3%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (14Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+34.0%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

−2.2% · in HKD

Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.

Earnings growth per share−8.5%

Dividend yield6.3%

Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1.7% (2020) → 0.3% (2025) · falling

Worst earnings drop107% (2021) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in HKD

Revenue +7.6%/yr

FY21 952B CNY

FY22 1.0T CNY

FY23 1.1T CNY

FY24 1.2T CNY

FY25 1.3T CNY

Net income

FY21 −3.6B CNY

FY22 10.4B CNY

FY23 24.2B CNY

FY24 41.4B CNY

FY25 19.1B CNY

9618 screens 19% overvalued. Compare with Amazon.com, Inc →

Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators

DCF Calculator Graham Number Peter Lynch Formula DDM Calculator Fama-French Model Intrinsic Value

Share or link this analysis

𝕏 Post WhatsApp LinkedIn Reddit

For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

JD.com, Inc · Fair Value
HK$92.66 −19%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9618.HK" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">JD.com, Inc · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">HK$92.66</b> <span style="color:#e0816f;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−19%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:#7BB290;font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "JD.com, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9618.HK

Peer Group

Internet Retail · 103 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 59 · Above median

Fair Value upside −16% · Below median

Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Above median

Return on assets 0% · Below median

Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median

Operating margin (TTM) 1% · Below median

Revenue growth 5% · Below median

Dividend yield (TTM) 6.3% · Top 25%

Debt / equity 0.28× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 21.8× · Pricier than median

P/B 1.41× · Cheaper than median

P/S (TTM) 0.24× · Cheaper than median

P/FCF 8.4× · Pricier than median

EV/EBITDA 32.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers

PEG 0.76× · Cheaper than median

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Amazon.com, Inc AMZN	$258.51	$127.67	−51%
Alibaba Group 89988	HK$97.45	HK$48.38	−50%
PDD Holdings PDD	$85.69	$225.48	+163%
MercadoLibre, Inc MELI	$1,966	$798.98	−59%
DoorDash, Inc DASH	$222.00	$38.64	−83%
Sea Limited SE	$118.32	$52.70	−55%
eBay Inc EBAY	$105.62	$60.13	−43%
Coupang, Inc CPNG	$16.32	$2.79	−83%
Delivery Hero SE DHER	€36.47	€12.71	−65%
Wayfair Inc W	$99.27	$11.46	−88%

Compare JD.com, Inc with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

First stock

Second stock

Free, no sign-up

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Consumer Cyclical stocks →

All undervalued stocks Technology Financial Services Healthcare Consumer Cyclical Consumer Defensive Communication Services Industrials Energy Basic Materials Real Estate Utilities Deeply Undervalued Stocks Undervalued Blue-Chip Stocks Undervalued Small-Cap Stocks Undervalued Dividend Stocks

Try a ready-made strategy

Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.

🥇 Backtested Best 🏆 Big Names ⭐ Top Rated 💎 Quality on Sale 🚀 Profitable Growth 🧊 Quality Compounders 💵 Dividend Stars 📈 Strong Momentum 📉 Fallen Angels ⚖️ Deeply Undervalued 🔍 Small-Cap Gems 🏰 Moat at a Fair Price 💼 Insider Buying 🎩 Buffett-Style Quality 📚 Peter Lynch GARP 🧮 Greenblatt Magic Formula 🛡️ Graham Defensive

Discover tools

Stock screener Filter by region, size and sector Compare tool Two stocks side by side Extrinsic Value Calculator (Options) Splits an option premium into intrinsic and extrinsic (time) value. Peter Lynch Fair Value Formula & Calculator Apply Peter Lynch's fair value formula in seconds: fair P/E ≈ earnings growth (+ dividend) - free, with formula and example.

Frequently asked questions

Is JD.com, Inc (9618) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$92.66 versus a price of HK$110.40, about −16% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of 9618?

Our model-based fair value for JD.com, Inc is HK$92.66 (as of Sep 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$110.40.

What is the quality score of 9618?

JD.com, Inc has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for JD.com, Inc (9618)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$92.66 (as of Sep 2, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$76.83, optimistic scenario HK$117.69. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the JD.com, Inc stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$92.66, about −16% upside versus a price of HK$110.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$76.83, optimistic scenario HK$117.69. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of JD.com, Inc (9618)?

JD.com, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.3T (latest available figure, as of Sep 2, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 9618?

The net profit margin of JD.com, Inc is about 1.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does JD.com, Inc pay a dividend?

JD.com, Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.34% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 2, 2026).

Free · no account needed

Watch JD.com, Inc in the live analysis

One click puts JD.com, Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.

Watch for free →

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.