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Alibaba Group Holding Limited (89988) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Alibaba Group Holding Limited stock HK$95.30, price HK$82.65, upside +15.3%, quality 44 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Based in China

AG Alibaba Group Holding Limited logo Some data Oct 11, 2026

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

89988 · HK

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

The stock costs 13% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value HK$95.30 · Undervalued (+15.3%)
Low debt
Quality 44/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +7.4 %/yr in HKD)
Thin margins · 7.0% net margin (TTM)
8.8% dividend yield · Payout strained
Mixed vs. peers (7/12)
Some data
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 41/100 · thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$167.82 HK$57.49 Fair Value HK$95.30 Jun 2023 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

40‑month range HK$57.49 – HK$167.82 · fair‑value band HK$71.47 – HK$119.12 · the HK$82.65 price screens below the HK$95.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 11, 2026.

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Company profile

Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China and internationally.

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It operates through the Alibaba China E-Commerce Group, Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group, Cloud Intelligence Group, and All Others segments.

The Alibaba China E-commerce Group segment operates Taobao and Tmall, which are digital retail platforms; Taobao Instant Commerce, a local services and on-demand delivery platform; 1688.com, a domestic wholesale marketplace; and Xianyu, a consumer-to-consumer community and marketplace for idle goods.

Its Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group segment includes AliExpress, a global e-commerce platform; Trendyol, an e-commerce platform in Turkey; Lazada, an e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia; Daraz, an e-commerce platform in South Asia, primarily in Pakistan and Bangladesh; and Alibaba.com, an integrated international online wholesale marketplace.

The Cloud Intelligence Group segment offers a suite of cloud services based on infrastructure-as-a-service, platform-as-a-service, and model-as-a-service.

Its All Others segment comprises Amap, a provider of mobile digital maps, navigation, and real-time traffic information in China; Cainiao, which provides logistics solutions; Youku, an online long-form video platform in China; Freshippo, a retail platform for groceries and fresh goods; and Alibaba Health, a pharmaceutical and healthcare services platform.

Alibaba Group Holding Limited was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Hangzhou, China.

Stock analysis

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (89988) currently trades at HK$82.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$95.30, implying the stock looks roughly 13.3% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$64.58 per share, and 2 of the 16 models we run sit above the HK$82.65 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$10.69, and 14 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: HK$71.47 (bear) to HK$119.12 (bull), the price of HK$82.65 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Alibaba Group Holding Limited reported revenue of HK$990B in FY2026 versus HK$853B in FY2022, a compound +3.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$100B in FY2026, compounding +12.8%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap HK$2.4T (≈ $305B) Mega · P/S ratio 2.29 · EPS (TTM) HK$3.72 · Dividend yield 8.8% · Net margin 10.1% · Return on equity 6.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.7% · Operating margin 7.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 15%, 89988 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$71.47 Fair Value HK$95.30 Bull HK$119.12
Price HK$82.65 · Upside +15.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income HK$32.62 HK$36.33 HK$47.65 76
EPV HK$8.83 HK$10.69 HK$12.36 74
ROIC Compounder HK$8.83 HK$10.69 HK$12.36 72
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$23.53 HK$103.26 HK$141.31 64
Lynch FV HK$26.67 HK$38.10 HK$49.53 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$26.67 HK$38.10 HK$49.53 57
EPV HK$8.83 HK$10.69 HK$12.36 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$11.24 HK$25.61 HK$45.58 65
DDM Multi-Stage HK$11.24 HK$20.45 HK$26.51 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$57.09 HK$76.12 HK$95.15 63
P/S Multiple HK$30.77 HK$41.03 HK$51.29 58
P/B Multiple HK$82.45 HK$109.93 HK$137.41 55
EV/EBIT HK$23.09 HK$31.78 HK$40.47 66
EV/EBITDA HK$27.93 HK$38.23 HK$48.54 67
EV/Revenue HK$14.59 HK$22.12 HK$29.66 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$13.74 HK$18.41 HK$27.48 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$32.62 HK$36.33 HK$47.65 76
ROIC Compounder HK$8.83 HK$10.69 HK$12.36 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$45.21 HK$64.58 HK$83.96 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 40
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 24
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 13
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 69
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 72
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 69
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 10
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 3
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 50
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 37/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−5.3% vs 9.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 6%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 98 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +15.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 6.4% · Above median
Return on assets 5.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 7.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 7.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 8.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 8.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.20× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.26× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 2.29× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 24.4× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)54 · sector 50
FUTURE (revenue growth)43 · sector 57
PAST (return on equity)25 · sector 21
HEALTH (low debt)90 · sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 42

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Sea Limited SE $77.94 $129.32 +66% vs 89988
Prosus N.V PRX €34.58 €51.76 +50% vs 89988
MercadoLibre, Inc MELI $1,855 $2,040 +10% vs 89988
DoorDash, Inc DASH $184.45 $202.90 +10% vs 89988
Allegro.eu S.A ALE 58.86 PLN 64.75 PLN +10% vs 89988
eBay Inc EBAY $122.90 $127.64 +4% vs 89988
Amazon.com, Inc AMZN $262.63 $140.40 −47% vs 89988
Coupang, Inc CPNG $13.87 $4.97 −64% vs 89988
Delivery Hero SE DHER €37.60 €12.59 −67% vs 89988
Wayfair Inc W $113.31 $34.72 −69% vs 89988

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alibaba Group Holding Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/89988

Frequently asked questions

Is Alibaba Group Holding Limited (89988) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$95.30 versus a price of HK$82.65, about +15% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 89988?
Our model-based fair value for Alibaba Group Holding Limited is HK$95.30 (as of Oct 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$82.65.
What is the quality score of 89988?
Alibaba Group Holding Limited has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alibaba Group Holding Limited (89988)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$95.30 (as of Oct 11, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$71.47, optimistic scenario HK$119.12. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alibaba Group Holding Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$95.30, about +15% upside versus a price of HK$82.65 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$71.47, optimistic scenario HK$119.12. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (89988)?
Alibaba Group Holding Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.0T (latest available figure, as of Oct 11, 2026).
Does Alibaba Group Holding Limited pay a dividend?
Alibaba Group Holding Limited currently shows a dividend yield of 8.76% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 11, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (89988)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alibaba Group Holding Limited it is HK$95.30 per share (as of Oct 11, 2026), against a price of HK$82.65. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alibaba Group Holding Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 11, 2026, 89988 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$82.65, fair value HK$95.30, a gap of about +15% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 89988?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$82.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$95.30). For Alibaba Group Holding Limited the two are HK$12.65 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alibaba Group Holding Limited worth?
The market values Alibaba Group Holding Limited at about HK$2.4T (market capitalisation, as of Oct 11, 2026). Per share that is HK$82.65; our models calculate a fair value of HK$95.30 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 89988?
Our models span a range for Alibaba Group Holding Limited: cautious scenario HK$71.47, base HK$95.30, optimistic HK$119.12 per share (as of Oct 11, 2026, price HK$82.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (89988)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alibaba Group Holding Limited (as of Oct 11, 2026): return on equity 6.4%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 89988 from its 52-week high?
Alibaba Group Holding Limited trades at HK$82.65, about 48% below its 52-week high of HK$157.61 and 7% above the low of HK$77.40 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$95.30 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alibaba Group Holding Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, MercadoLibre, Inc, Prosus N.V, DoorDash, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alibaba Group Holding Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 11, 2026: price HK$82.65, calculated fair value HK$95.30 (+15%), Quality Score 44/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 89988 calculated?
We run Alibaba Group Holding Limited through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$95.30, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Alibaba Group Holding Limited currently trades 13 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (89988)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was HK$82.65. Our model-based fair value is HK$95.30, about +15% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alibaba Group Holding Limited right now?
The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Key figures of Alibaba Group Holding Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (89988)?
The market capitalisation of Alibaba Group Holding Limited is HK$2.4T (≈ $305B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (89988)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alibaba Group Holding Limited is 2.29 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (89988)?
Earnings per share at Alibaba Group Holding Limited are HK$3.72. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (89988)?
The dividend yield of Alibaba Group Holding Limited is 8.8% (payout 195%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (89988)?
The net margin of Alibaba Group Holding Limited is 10.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (89988)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alibaba Group Holding Limited is 6.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (89988)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alibaba Group Holding Limited is 5.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (89988)?
The operating margin of Alibaba Group Holding Limited is 7.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alibaba Group Holding Limited (89988)?
Revenue at Alibaba Group Holding Limited is growing +8.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alibaba Group Holding Limited (89988)?
Earnings per share at Alibaba Group Holding Limited are growing −79.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Alibaba Group Holding Limited (89988) generate?
The free cash flow of Alibaba Group Holding Limited is −HK$49.0B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Alibaba Group Holding Limited (89988) carry?
The net debt of Alibaba Group Holding Limited is HK$86.3B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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