Alibaba Group Holding Limited (89988) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Discretionary · HK · Market cap HK$2.4T
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 26, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 26, 2026, revised from HK$61.74 to HK$48.38 (−21.6%) since Aug 23, 2026. Share price +2.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and trading another 101% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$60.47). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
38‑month range HK$57.49 – HK$167.82 · fair‑value band HK$36.28 – HK$60.47 · the HK$97.45 price screens above the HK$48.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 26, 2026.
Analysis
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (89988) currently trades at HK$97.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$48.38, implying the stock looks roughly 50.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Discretionary sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Alibaba Group Holding Limited generated revenue of HK$1.0T at a net margin of 10.1%. Revenue grew 2.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.2%. Net debt stands at HK$86.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 26, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$36.28 (bear case) to HK$60.47 (bull case); at HK$97.45, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Discretionary peers we cover trades at -56% fair-value upside, at -50%, 89988 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$76.15) versus Economic Profit (HK$11.98). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China and internationally.
Full company description
Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through the Alibaba China E-Commerce Group, Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group, Cloud Intelligence Group, and All Others segments. The Alibaba China E-commerce Group segment operates Taobao and Tmall, which are digital retail platforms; Taobao Instant Commerce, a local services and on-demand delivery platform; 1688.com, a domestic wholesale marketplace; and Xianyu, a consumer-to-consumer community and marketplace for idle goods. Its Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group segment includes AliExpress, a global e-commerce platform; Trendyol, an e-commerce platform in Turkey; Lazada, an e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia; Daraz, an e-commerce platform in South Asia, primarily in Pakistan and Bangladesh; and Alibaba.com, an integrated international online wholesale marketplace. The Cloud Intelligence Group segment offers a suite of cloud services based on infrastructure-as-a-service, platform-as-a-service, and model-as-a-service. Its All Others segment comprises Amap, a provider of mobile digital maps, navigation, and real-time traffic information in China; Cainiao, which provides logistics solutions; Youku, an online long-form video platform in China; Freshippo, a retail platform for groceries and fresh goods; and Alibaba Health, a pharmaceutical and healthcare services platform. Alibaba Group Holding Limited was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Hangzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Alibaba Group Holding Limited reported revenue of HK$990B in FY2026 versus HK$853B in FY2022, a compound +3.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$100B in FY2026, compounding +12.8%/yr from FY2022.
89988 screens 50% overvalued. Compare with Amazon.com, Inc →
Peer Group
Internet Retail · 105 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 26, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon.com, Inc AMZN | $260.11 | $127.67 | -51% |
| PDD Holdings PDD | $89.04 | $224.27 | +152% |
| MercadoLibre, Inc MELI | $1,828 | $798.98 | -56% |
| DoorDash, Inc DASH | $216.35 | $38.64 | -82% |
| Sea Limited SE | $128.11 | $52.70 | -59% |
| JD.com, Inc 89618 | ¥95.45 | ¥73.98 | -22% |
| eBay Inc EBAY | $104.13 | $60.13 | -42% |
| Coupang, Inc CPNG | $16.32 | $2.79 | -83% |
| Delivery Hero SE DHER | €37.04 | €12.71 | -66% |
| Wayfair Inc W | $102.94 | $11.46 | -89% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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