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Pizu Group Holdings Limited (9893) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$6.3B

PG Pizu Group Holdings Limited 9893 · HK
PriceHK$1.65
Fair ValueHK$1.10
Upside-33.3%
Quality47/100
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Strengths

✓Solidly profitable · 13.3% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Trades 33% ABOVE our fair value of HK$1.10
!Weak Growth
!Trails peers (5/14)
!Moderate moat 56/100
Weak Growth
Solidly profitable · 13.3% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
1.40% dividend yield
Trails peers (5/14)
Moderate moat 56/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$0.7200 – HK$1.55 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 8 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$1.29 to HK$1.10 (−14.7%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price −3.5% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 33% overvalued on our models.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$1.55). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$0.7200 to HK$1.55) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$2.12 HK$0.3022 Fair Value HK$1.10 Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.3022 – HK$2.12 · fair‑value band HK$0.7200 – HK$1.55 · the HK$1.65 price screens above the HK$1.10 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Pizu Group Holdings Limited (9893) currently trades at HK$1.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.10, implying the stock looks roughly 33.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Pizu Group Holdings Limited generated revenue of HK$1.5B at a net margin of 13.3%. Revenue declined 5.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.5%. Net debt stands at HK$676M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.7200 (bear case) to HK$1.55 (bull case); at HK$1.65, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 295% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -67% fair-value upside, at -33%, 9893 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$0.5200 HK$0.9800 HK$1.72 80
Residual Income HK$0.3600 HK$0.4900 HK$1.65 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.5700 HK$1.02 HK$1.97 74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.5600 HK$0.8500 HK$1.76 38
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.5200 HK$0.9000 HK$1.70 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.8600 HK$1.59 HK$3.02 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$0.6900 HK$1.57 HK$2.77 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.5200 HK$1.15 HK$1.56 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.7800 HK$1.86 HK$3.80 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$0.6600 HK$1.52 HK$2.94 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.3800 HK$2.63 HK$3.70 54
Lynch FV HK$1.36 HK$1.94 HK$2.53 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$1.36 HK$1.94 HK$2.53 46
EPV HK$0.6100 HK$0.7100 HK$0.7900 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.0800 HK$0.1600 HK$0.2400 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.0800 HK$0.1300 HK$0.1600 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.7100 HK$0.9400 HK$1.18 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.4700 HK$0.6300 HK$0.7800 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.7100 HK$0.9400 HK$1.18 55
EV/EBIT HK$1.00 HK$1.33 HK$1.65 53
EV/EBITDA HK$0.9500 HK$1.26 HK$1.57 54
EV/Revenue HK$0.4500 HK$0.6400 HK$0.8300 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.1700 HK$0.2300 HK$0.3500 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.5200 HK$0.9800 HK$1.72 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.5700 HK$1.02 HK$1.97 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.3600 HK$0.4900 HK$1.65 76
ROIC Compounder HK$0.8300 HK$1.28 HK$1.55 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.67 HK$2.39 HK$3.11 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$2.39) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.1300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$1.5B
Revenue growth (YoY) -5.7%
Net margin 13.3%
Return on equity 15.5%
Free cash flow HK$121M FY2025
P/E ratio 29.7 as of Jul 3, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 17.3%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0500
Dividend yield 1.4%
EPS growth (YoY) +21.7%
Net debt HK$676M FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55

Profitability 37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 35
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 61
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 50
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 19
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 31
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 53
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 85
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 79
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Pizu Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures, trades, and sales of civil explosives in the People's Republic of China and Tajikistan. It operates through Mining Operation and Explosives Trading and Blasting Services segments. The company is involved in the provision of blasting services, as well as sales of mineral concentrates.

Full company description

Pizu Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures, trades, and sales of civil explosives in the People's Republic of China and Tajikistan. It operates through Mining Operation and Explosives Trading and Blasting Services segments. The company is involved in the provision of blasting services, as well as sales of mineral concentrates. It also engages in the exploration and provision of technical services; mining and processing of pyrite, iron ore, copper and molybdenum; mining and sale of nonferrous metal products; and provision of mining, and subcontracting services. The company was formerly known as China Electric Power Technology Holdings Limited and changed its name to Pizu Group Holdings Limited in May 2012. Pizu Group Holdings Limited was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Sheung Wan, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Pizu Group Holdings Limited reported revenue of HK$1.5B in FY2026 versus HK$1.6B in FY2022, a compound −2.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$198M in FY2026, compounding +14.5%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
HK$1.5B
Latest YoY
−12.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−2.7%
Avg. growth/yr (22Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+23.2%
Revenue −2.4%/yr
FY22 HK$1.6B
FY23 HK$1.5B
FY24 HK$1.4B
FY25 HK$1.7B
FY26 HK$1.5B
Net income +14.5%/yr
FY22 HK$115M
FY23 HK$88.0M
FY24 HK$131M
FY25 HK$164M
FY26 HK$198M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026) +15.8 % p.a.
Revenue per share −9.4 pp

of which total revenue −4.4 pp · buybacks/dilution −5.0 pp

EBIT margin +25.0 pp
Tax rate −0.9 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +1.1 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

9893 screens 33% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →

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Pizu Group Holdings Limited · Fair Value
HK$1.10 −33%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Pizu Group Holdings Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9893

Peer Group

Specialty Chemicals · 679 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 47 · Below median
Fair Value upside −33% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 17% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.5% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.57× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 29.7× · Pricier than median
P/B 5.16× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 4.12× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 6.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 13.0× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE0 · sector 19
PAST62 · sector 23
HEALTH72 · sector 95
DIVIDEND30 · sector 30

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Frequently asked questions

Is Pizu Group Holdings Limited (9893) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.10 versus a price of HK$1.65, about −33% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9893?
Our model-based fair value for Pizu Group Holdings Limited is HK$1.10 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.65.
What is the quality score of 9893?
Pizu Group Holdings Limited has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Pizu Group Holdings Limited (9893)?
Pizu Group Holdings Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.5B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 9893?
The net profit margin of Pizu Group Holdings Limited is about 13.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 13.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Pizu Group Holdings Limited pay a dividend?
Pizu Group Holdings Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.40% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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