MINISO Group Holding Limited (9896) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of MINISO Group Holding Limited HK$5.71, price HK$17.61, upside -67.6%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
51‑month range HK$7.91 – HK$53.47 · fair‑value band HK$4.26 – HK$8.53 · the HK$17.61 price screens above the HK$5.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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MINISO Group Holding Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail and wholesale of design-led lifestyle and pop toy products in Mainland China, the rest of Asia, North and Latin America, Europe, and internationally.
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MINISO Group Holding Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail and wholesale of design-led lifestyle and pop toy products in Mainland China, the rest of Asia, North and Latin America, Europe, and internationally. The company offers products in various categories, including home decor products, small electronics, textiles, accessories, beauty tools, toys, cosmetics, personal care products, snacks, fragrances and perfumes, and stationeries and gifts under the MINISO brand; and blind boxes, toy bricks, model figures, model kits, collectible dolls, Ichiban Kuji, and other popular toys under the TOP TOY brand. It also engages in brand licensing activity; and online sale of lifestyle products. MINISO Group Holding Limited was founded in 2013 and is based in Guangzhou, China.
Stock analysis
MINISO Group Holding Limited (9896) currently trades at HK$17.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$5.71, 67.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: HK$4.26 (bear) to HK$8.53 (bull), the price of HK$17.61 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
MINISO Group Holding Limited reported revenue of 35.5B CNY in FY2026 versus 10.1B CNY in FY2022, a compound +36.9%/yr. Reported net income was −2.7B CNY in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap HK$28.1B (≈ $3.6B) · P/E ratio 12.2 · P/S ratio 1.24 · EPS (TTM) HK$1.75 · Net margin −7.6% · Return on equity 18.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.4% · Operating margin 26.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 60% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at −68%, 9896 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$4.26Fair Value HK$5.71Bull HK$8.53
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+108.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+45.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
8.7% (2022) → −8.5% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (82 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare MINISO Group Holding Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 211 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+56.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets9.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)9.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)26.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth28.5% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)19.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.51× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MINISO Group Holding Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9896
Frequently asked questions
Is MINISO Group Holding Limited (9896) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$5.71 versus a price of HK$17.61, about −68% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9896?
Our model-based fair value for MINISO Group Holding Limited is HK$5.71 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$17.61.
What is the quality score of 9896?
MINISO Group Holding Limited has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MINISO Group Holding Limited (9896)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$5.71 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$4.26, optimistic scenario HK$8.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MINISO Group Holding Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$5.71, about −68% upside versus a price of HK$17.61 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$4.26, optimistic scenario HK$8.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MINISO Group Holding Limited (9896)?
MINISO Group Holding Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 22.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of MINISO Group Holding Limited (9896)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MINISO Group Holding Limited it is HK$5.71 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$17.61. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MINISO Group Holding Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 9896 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$17.61, fair value HK$5.71, a gap of about −68% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9896?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$17.61); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$5.71). For MINISO Group Holding Limited the two are HK$11.90 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MINISO Group Holding Limited worth?
The market values MINISO Group Holding Limited at about HK$28.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$17.61; our models calculate a fair value of HK$5.71 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9896?
Our models span a range for MINISO Group Holding Limited: cautious scenario HK$4.26, base HK$5.71, optimistic HK$8.53 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$17.61). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9896?
MINISO Group Holding Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$5.71 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.3, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 5.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of MINISO Group Holding Limited (9896)?
Balance-sheet figures for MINISO Group Holding Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 18.8%, debt of 0.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9896 from its 52-week high?
MINISO Group Holding Limited trades at HK$17.61, about 60% below its 52-week high of HK$43.68 and 4% above the low of HK$16.96 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$5.71 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MINISO Group Holding Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MINISO Group Holding Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$17.61, calculated fair value HK$5.71 (−68%), Quality Score 50/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9896 calculated?
We run MINISO Group Holding Limited through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$5.71, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. MINISO Group Holding Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MINISO Group Holding Limited (9896)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$17.61. Our model-based fair value is HK$5.71, about −68% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MINISO Group Holding Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$8.53). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (HK$4.26 to HK$8.53) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of MINISO Group Holding Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of MINISO Group Holding Limited (9896)?
The market capitalisation of MINISO Group Holding Limited is HK$28.1B (≈ $3.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MINISO Group Holding Limited (9896)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MINISO Group Holding Limited is 1.24 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MINISO Group Holding Limited (9896)?
Earnings per share at MINISO Group Holding Limited are HK$1.75 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of MINISO Group Holding Limited (9896)?
The net margin of MINISO Group Holding Limited is −7.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MINISO Group Holding Limited (9896)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MINISO Group Holding Limited is 18.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MINISO Group Holding Limited (9896)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MINISO Group Holding Limited is 10.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MINISO Group Holding Limited (9896)?
The operating margin of MINISO Group Holding Limited is 26.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MINISO Group Holding Limited (9896)?
Revenue at MINISO Group Holding Limited is growing +28.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +45.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MINISO Group Holding Limited (9896)?
Earnings per share at MINISO Group Holding Limited are growing +200% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does MINISO Group Holding Limited (9896) generate?
The free cash flow of MINISO Group Holding Limited is −1.4B CNY (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does MINISO Group Holding Limited (9896) carry?
The net debt of MINISO Group Holding Limited is 349M CNY (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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