Merida Industry Co Ltd (9914) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Merida Industry Co Ltd TWD 76.22, price TWD 66.70, upside +14.3%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Merida Industry Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells bicycles and components in Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Europe. The company offers mountain bikes, road bikes, fitness bikes, gravel bikes, trekking bikes, and e-bikes, as well as bikes for youth and kids.
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Merida Industry Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells bicycles and components in Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Europe. The company offers mountain bikes, road bikes, fitness bikes, gravel bikes, trekking bikes, and e-bikes, as well as bikes for youth and kids. It also provides handlebars, stems, grips and bartapes, seatposts and clamps, saddles, pedals, protection and EQ parts, and spare parts; backpacks, bags, brackets, lights, bells, pumps, bottles and cages, tools, and locks; and apparel comprising jerseys, shorts, jackets and vests, helmets, shoes, gloves, socks and shoe covers, and sunglasses. In addition, the company offers women apparel. The company was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Changhua, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Merida Industry Co Ltd (9914) currently trades at 66.70 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 76.22 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 12.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 113.19 TWD per share, and 19 of the 26 models we run sit above the 66.70 TWD price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 23.68 TWD, and 7 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 52.67 TWD (bear) to 99.09 TWD (bull), the price of 66.70 TWD sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Merida Industry Co Ltd reported revenue of 26.8B TWD in FY2025 versus 29.4B TWD in FY2021, a compound −2.3%/yr. Reported net income was 1.2B TWD in FY2025, compounding −28.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 23.7B TWD (≈ $744M) · P/E ratio 16.7 · P/S ratio 0.75 · EPS (TTM) 4.00 TWD · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin 4.5% · Return on equity 5.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 46% fair-value upside, at 14%, 9914 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 52.67 TWDFair Value 76.22 TWDBull 99.09 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.8778 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.5% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−17.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−21.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−22% vs −9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.3% a year for the price and +2.3% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 188 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+15% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−30% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Merida Industry Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9914
Frequently asked questions
Is Merida Industry Co Ltd (9914) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 76.22 TWD versus a price of 66.70 TWD, about +14% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 9914?
Our model-based fair value for Merida Industry Co Ltd is 76.22 TWD (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 66.70 TWD.
What is the quality score of 9914?
Merida Industry Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Merida Industry Co Ltd (9914)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 76.22 TWD (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 52.67 TWD, optimistic scenario 99.09 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Merida Industry Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 76.22 TWD, about +14% upside versus a price of 66.70 TWD (undervalued). Cautious scenario 52.67 TWD, optimistic scenario 99.09 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Merida Industry Co Ltd (9914)?
Merida Industry Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 24.5B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Merida Industry Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Merida Industry Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.20% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Merida Industry Co Ltd (9914)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Merida Industry Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -5.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9914 use?
Our models discount Merida Industry Co Ltd at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.52, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Merida Industry Co Ltd that is -5.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Merida Industry Co Ltd (9914) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Merida Industry Co Ltd grew -0.2 % a year. The price currently implies -5.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Merida Industry Co Ltd (9914) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Merida Industry Co Ltd (-5.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Merida Industry Co Ltd (9914)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.59 %: that much free cash flow Merida Industry Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Merida Industry Co Ltd (9914)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Merida Industry Co Ltd it is 76.22 TWD per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of 66.70 TWD. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Merida Industry Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 9914 trades below its calculated fair value: price 66.70 TWD, fair value 76.22 TWD, a gap of about +14% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9914?
No. The price is what the market pays today (66.70 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (76.22 TWD). For Merida Industry Co Ltd the two are 9.52 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Merida Industry Co Ltd worth?
The market values Merida Industry Co Ltd at about 23.7B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is 66.70 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 76.22 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9914?
Our models span a range for Merida Industry Co Ltd: cautious scenario 52.67 TWD, base 76.22 TWD, optimistic 99.09 TWD per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price 66.70 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9914?
Merida Industry Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.7 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 76.22 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 5.4, P/B 1.2, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 13.2.
What is the PEG ratio of 9914?
The PEG ratio of Merida Industry Co Ltd is 5.39 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Merida Industry Co Ltd (9914)?
Balance-sheet figures for Merida Industry Co Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 5.2%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9914 from its 52-week high?
Merida Industry Co Ltd trades at 66.70 TWD, about 39% below its 52-week high of 108.50 TWD and 20% above the low of 55.70 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 76.22 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Merida Industry Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Pop Mart International Group, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, Life Time Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Merida Industry Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price 66.70 TWD, calculated fair value 76.22 TWD (+14%), Quality Score 63/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9914 calculated?
We run Merida Industry Co Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 76.22 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Merida Industry Co Ltd currently trades 14 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Merida Industry Co Ltd (9914)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 66.70 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 76.22 TWD, about +14% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Merida Industry Co Ltd right now?
A fairly wide model range (52.67 TWD to 99.09 TWD) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Merida Industry Co Ltd (9914) come from?
Earnings per share at Merida Industry Co Ltd grew −7.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.4 %, EBIT margin +0.4 %, tax rate −1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Merida Industry Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Merida Industry Co Ltd (9914)?
The market capitalisation of Merida Industry Co Ltd is 23.7B TWD (≈ $744M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Merida Industry Co Ltd (9914)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Merida Industry Co Ltd is 0.75 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Merida Industry Co Ltd (9914)?
Earnings per share at Merida Industry Co Ltd are 4.00 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Merida Industry Co Ltd (9914)?
The dividend yield of Merida Industry Co Ltd is 4.2% (payout 70.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Merida Industry Co Ltd (9914)?
The net margin of Merida Industry Co Ltd is 4.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Merida Industry Co Ltd (9914)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Merida Industry Co Ltd is 5.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Merida Industry Co Ltd (9914)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Merida Industry Co Ltd is 10.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Merida Industry Co Ltd (9914)?
The operating margin of Merida Industry Co Ltd is 5.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Merida Industry Co Ltd (9914)?
Revenue at Merida Industry Co Ltd is growing −29.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Merida Industry Co Ltd (9914)?
Earnings per share at Merida Industry Co Ltd are growing −22.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Merida Industry Co Ltd (9914) carry?
The net debt of Merida Industry Co Ltd is 3.6B TWD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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