Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt (9979) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt HK$4.60, price HK$1.84, upside +150.0%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$1.68 – HK$6.39 · fair‑value band HK$2.97 – HK$6.23 · the HK$1.84 price screens below the HK$4.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
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Greentown Management Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, provides project management services in the People's Republic of China The company offers property development management services for project owners and government. It also provides construction design and consulting services, as well as other services.
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Greentown Management Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, provides project management services in the People's Republic of China The company offers property development management services for project owners and government. It also provides construction design and consulting services, as well as other services. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China. Greentown Management Holdings Company Limited is a subsidiary of Greentown China Holdings Limited.
Stock analysis
Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt (9979) currently trades at HK$1.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$4.60, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$5.90 per share, and 15 of the 16 models we run sit above the HK$1.84 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.44, and 1 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$2.97 (bear) to HK$6.23 (bull), the price of HK$1.84 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt reported revenue of 3.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound +8.6%/yr. Reported net income was 419M CNY in FY2025, compounding −7.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$3.6B (≈ $462M) · P/E ratio 7.1 · P/S ratio 0.95 · Dividend yield 9.1% · Net margin 13.4% · Return on equity 10.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.9% · Operating margin 24.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 150%, 9979 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$2.97Fair Value HK$4.60Bull HK$6.23
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.83/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+5.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.26% → 21%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −11.3% a year for the price and −1.3% for the forecasts.
Compare Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 539 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+150.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)13.5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)24.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)9.1% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9979
Frequently asked questions
Is Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt (9979) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$4.60 versus a price of HK$1.84, about +150% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 9979?
Our model-based fair value for Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt is HK$4.60 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.84.
What is the quality score of 9979?
Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt (9979)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$4.60 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$2.97, optimistic scenario HK$6.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$4.60, about +150% upside versus a price of HK$1.84 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$2.97, optimistic scenario HK$6.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt (9979)?
Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
Does Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt pay a dividend?
Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.13% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt (9979)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt would have to grow free cash flow by -9.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.5 % per year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9979 use?
Our models discount Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt at 11.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.77, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt that is -9.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt (9979) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt grew +11.5 % a year. The price currently implies -9.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt (9979) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt (-9.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt (9979)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.66 %: that much free cash flow Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt (9979)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt it is HK$4.60 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of HK$1.84. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, 9979 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$1.84, fair value HK$4.60, a gap of about +150% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9979?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.84); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$4.60). For Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt the two are HK$2.76 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt worth?
The market values Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt at about HK$3.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.84; our models calculate a fair value of HK$4.60 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9979?
Our models span a range for Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt: cautious scenario HK$2.97, base HK$4.60, optimistic HK$6.23 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price HK$1.84). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9979?
Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.1 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$4.60 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 2.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt (9979)?
Balance-sheet figures for Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 10.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9979 from its 52-week high?
Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt trades at HK$1.84, about 46% below its 52-week high of HK$3.38 and 10% above the low of HK$1.68 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$4.60 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value CBRE Group, KE Holdings, Swire Properties Limited, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price HK$1.84, calculated fair value HK$4.60 (+150%), Quality Score 62/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9979 calculated?
We run Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$4.60, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt currently trades 60 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt (9979)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$1.84. Our model-based fair value is HK$4.60, about +150% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$2.97). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$2.97 to HK$6.23) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt
How large is the market capitalisation of Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt (9979)?
The market capitalisation of Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt is HK$3.6B (≈ $462M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt (9979)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt is 0.95 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt (9979)?
The dividend yield of Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt is 9.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt (9979)?
The net margin of Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt is 13.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt (9979)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt is 10.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt (9979)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt is 12.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt (9979)?
The operating margin of Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt is 24.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt (9979)?
Revenue at Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt is growing +6.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt (9979)?
Earnings per share at Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt are growing +6.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt (9979) hold?
Greentown Management Holdings Co Lt holds more cash than debt, 1.5B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Oct 1, 2026