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Yum China Holdings (9987) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Yum China Holdings HK$390, price HK$317, upside +23.0%, quality 73 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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YC
Some data
Sep 23, 2026
Yum China Holdings
9987 · HKUndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.
✓Fair value HK$390.30 · Undervalued (+23.0%)
✓Quality 73/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +7.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 7.8% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
✓0.3% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 53/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$219.20 – HK$498.68 · fair‑value band HK$265.83 – HK$579.00 · the HK$317.40 price screens below the HK$390.30 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Company profile
Yum China Holdings, Inc. owns, operates, and franchises restaurants in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through two KFC, Pizza Hut, and All Other segments. It operates restaurants under the KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, Lavazza, Little Sheep, and Huang Ji Huang concepts. The company also offers online food delivery services.
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Yum China Holdings, Inc. owns, operates, and franchises restaurants in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through two KFC, Pizza Hut, and All Other segments. It operates restaurants under the KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, Lavazza, Little Sheep, and Huang Ji Huang concepts. The company also offers online food delivery services. Yum China Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Yum China Holdings (9987) currently trades at HK$317.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$390.30, implying the stock looks roughly 18.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$390.47 per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$317.40 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$81.88, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: HK$265.83 (bear) to HK$579.00 (bull), the price of HK$317.40 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Yum China Holdings reported revenue of $11.8B in FY2025 versus $9.9B in FY2021, a compound +4.6%/yr. Reported net income was $929M in FY2025, compounding −1.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$118B (≈ $15.0B) · P/E ratio 15.9 · P/S ratio 1.25 · EPS (TTM) HK$2.61 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 7.9% · Return on equity 16.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 23%, 9987 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$265.83
Fair Value HK$390.30
Bull HK$579.00
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$1.21 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
HK$220.70
HK$323.95
HK$475.74
78
Growth DCF
HK$225.71
HK$319.52
HK$450.44
76
Residual Income
HK$135.26
HK$168.97
HK$248.86
75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
HK$220.70
HK$323.95
HK$475.74
78
Owner Earnings
HK$200.03
HK$293.07
HK$429.87
73
5Y Revenue Exit
HK$222.94
HK$342.66
HK$492.46
70
5Y EBITDA Exit
HK$307.93
HK$497.29
HK$713.65
72
5Y P/E Exit
HK$283.69
HK$453.20
HK$626.31
68
10Y Revenue Exit
HK$213.52
HK$321.37
HK$459.89
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
HK$273.74
HK$427.16
HK$624.46
65
10Y P/E Exit
HK$258.46
HK$396.99
HK$559.48
61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
HK$143.52
HK$385.90
HK$505.18
65
Lynch FV
HK$75.35
HK$107.64
HK$139.93
61
PEG = 1.0
HK$75.35
HK$107.64
HK$139.93
57
EPV
HK$247.12
HK$286.39
HK$320.75
70
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
HK$73.63
HK$153.10
HK$242.88
66
DDM Multi-Stage
HK$73.63
HK$114.57
HK$158.19
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
HK$348.24
HK$464.32
HK$580.40
63
P/S Multiple
HK$241.21
HK$321.61
HK$402.02
58
P/B Multiple
HK$269.09
HK$358.79
HK$448.49
55
EV/EBIT
HK$458.66
HK$607.72
HK$756.78
63
EV/EBITDA
HK$402.44
HK$532.75
HK$663.06
64
EV/Revenue
HK$236.62
HK$333.11
HK$429.59
51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
HK$61.10
HK$81.88
HK$122.20
51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
HK$225.71
HK$319.52
HK$450.44
76
Rev-Margin DCF
HK$222.94
HK$343.74
HK$477.35
70
Economic Profit
Residual Income
HK$135.26
HK$168.97
HK$248.86
75
ROIC Compounder
HK$260.21
HK$320.11
HK$386.66
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
HK$273.33
HK$390.47
HK$507.61
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
73/100
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Profitability
56
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
57
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
78
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
86
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
33
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
15
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
75/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.5% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+6.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.1% vs 8.6%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 12%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.4% a year for the price and +3.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+7.9%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+5.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+5.3%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.4%
Watch 9987, get fair value alerts →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- Should Value Investors Buy Yum China (YUMC) Stock?
- Yum China Stock Slides 22% in 6 Months: Should Investors Buy the Dip?
- The Bull Case For Yum China Holdings (YUMC) Could Change Following Analyst Upgrades Amid Oversold Signals
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Context: sector, industry, market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCD | $233.60 | $162.81 | −30% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $93.96 | $35.83 | −62% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $32.32 | $35.55 | +10% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $138.28 | $76.78 | −44% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | $71.48 | $73.34 | +3% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $199.75 | $175.20 | −12% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $158.45 | $128.55 | −19% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $301.81 | $233.22 | −23% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $37.89 | $10.27 | −73% |
| Guming Holdings 1364 | HK$21.64 | HK$31.58 | +46% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Yum China Holdings (9987) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$390.30 versus a price of HK$317.40, about +23% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 9987?
Our model-based fair value for Yum China Holdings is HK$390.30 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$317.40.
What is the quality score of 9987?
Yum China Holdings has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Yum China Holdings (9987)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$390.30 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$265.83, optimistic scenario HK$579.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Yum China Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$390.30, about +23% upside versus a price of HK$317.40 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$265.83, optimistic scenario HK$579.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Yum China Holdings (9987)?
Yum China Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $12.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Yum China Holdings pay a dividend?
Yum China Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.32% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Yum China Holdings (9987)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Yum China Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by +2.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9987 use?
Our models discount Yum China Holdings at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.09, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Yum China Holdings that is +2.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Yum China Holdings (9987) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Yum China Holdings grew +7.4 % a year. The price currently implies +2.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Yum China Holdings (9987) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Yum China Holdings (+2.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Yum China Holdings (9987)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.60 %: that much free cash flow Yum China Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Yum China Holdings (9987)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Yum China Holdings it is HK$390.30 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of HK$317.40. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Yum China Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 9987 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$317.40, fair value HK$390.30, a gap of about +23% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9987?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$317.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$390.30). For Yum China Holdings the two are HK$72.90 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Yum China Holdings worth?
The market values Yum China Holdings at about HK$118B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is HK$317.40; our models calculate a fair value of HK$390.30 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9987?
Our models span a range for Yum China Holdings: cautious scenario HK$265.83, base HK$390.30, optimistic HK$579.00 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price HK$317.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 9987 from its 52-week high?
Yum China Holdings trades at HK$317.40, about 29% below its 52-week high of HK$444.62 and at the low of HK$316.20 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$390.30 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Yum China Holdings?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Yum China Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price HK$317.40, calculated fair value HK$390.30 (+23%), Quality Score 73/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9987 calculated?
We run Yum China Holdings through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$390.30, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Yum China Holdings currently trades 19 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Yum China Holdings (9987)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$317.40. Our model-based fair value is HK$390.30, about +23% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Yum China Holdings right now?
A fairly wide model range (HK$265.83 to HK$579.00) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Yum China Holdings (9987) come from?
Earnings per share at Yum China Holdings grew +8.9 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.6 %, EBIT margin +3.0 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Yum China Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Yum China Holdings (9987)?
The market capitalisation of Yum China Holdings is HK$118B (≈ $15.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Yum China Holdings (9987)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Yum China Holdings is 15.9 (as of Jul 3, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Yum China Holdings (9987)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Yum China Holdings is 1.25 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Yum China Holdings (9987)?
Earnings per share at Yum China Holdings are HK$2.61 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Yum China Holdings (9987)?
The dividend yield of Yum China Holdings is 0.3% (payout 38.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Yum China Holdings (9987)?
The net margin of Yum China Holdings is 7.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Yum China Holdings (9987)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Yum China Holdings is 16.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Yum China Holdings (9987)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Yum China Holdings is 9.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Yum China Holdings (9987)?
The operating margin of Yum China Holdings is 13.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Yum China Holdings (9987)?
Revenue at Yum China Holdings is growing +9.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Yum China Holdings (9987)?
Earnings per share at Yum China Holdings are growing +13.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Yum China Holdings (9987) carry?
The net debt of Yum China Holdings is $1.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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