Guming Holdings Ltd (1364) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Guming Holdings Ltd HK$26.84, price HK$22.78, upside +17.8%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
20‑month range HK$8.72 – HK$30.29 · fair‑value band HK$17.76 – HK$45.20 · the HK$22.78 price screens below the HK$26.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Guming Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates as a freshly made beverage company in the People's Republic of China. The company operates a franchised tea store retail network under the Good me brand. Its stores offer fruit tea beverages, milk tea beverages, coffee beverages, and other products.
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Guming Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates as a freshly made beverage company in the People's Republic of China. The company operates a franchised tea store retail network under the Good me brand. Its stores offer fruit tea beverages, milk tea beverages, coffee beverages, and other products. The company also trades in ingredients and other related beverage products and equipment. In addition, it is involved in warehousing and logistics management; research and development; development of information technology activities; provision of supply chain services; and sale of goods and equipment. Guming Holdings Limited was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Guming Holdings Ltd (1364) currently trades at HK$22.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$26.84, implying the stock looks roughly 15.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$68.19 per share, and 15 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$22.78 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$12.86, and 9 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$17.76 (bear) to HK$45.20 (bull), the price of HK$22.78 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Guming Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 12.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 4.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound +30.2%/yr. Reported net income was 3.0B CNY in FY2025, compounding +250.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap HK$53.6B (≈ $6.8B) · P/E ratio 16.9 · P/S ratio 4.07 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.4600 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 24.1% · Return on equity 78.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 32.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 18%, 1364 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$17.76Fair Value HK$26.84Bull HK$45.20
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0083 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+43.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.3%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: rate outside our plausibility band
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+17.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.3% a year for the price and +15.2% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 214 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+17.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)78.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets16.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)24.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)24.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth54.3% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
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Is Guming Holdings Ltd (1364) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$26.84 versus a price of HK$22.78, about +18% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1364?
Our model-based fair value for Guming Holdings Ltd is HK$26.84 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$22.78.
What is the quality score of 1364?
Guming Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guming Holdings Ltd (1364)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$26.84 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$17.76, optimistic scenario HK$45.20. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guming Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$26.84, about +18% upside versus a price of HK$22.78 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$17.76, optimistic scenario HK$45.20. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guming Holdings Ltd (1364)?
Guming Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 12.9B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Guming Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Guming Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.97% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Guming Holdings Ltd (1364)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Guming Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +9.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +30.2 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1364 use?
Our models discount Guming Holdings Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Guming Holdings Ltd that is +9.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Guming Holdings Ltd (1364) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Guming Holdings Ltd grew +30.2 % a year. The price currently implies +9.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Guming Holdings Ltd (1364) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Guming Holdings Ltd (+9.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Guming Holdings Ltd (1364)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.85 %: that much free cash flow Guming Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Guming Holdings Ltd (1364)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guming Holdings Ltd it is HK$26.84 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$22.78. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guming Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1364 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$22.78, fair value HK$26.84, a gap of about +18% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1364?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$22.78); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$26.84). For Guming Holdings Ltd the two are HK$4.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guming Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Guming Holdings Ltd at about HK$53.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$22.78; our models calculate a fair value of HK$26.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1364?
Our models span a range for Guming Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$17.76, base HK$26.84, optimistic HK$45.20 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$22.78). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1364?
Guming Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.9 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$26.84 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 7.9, P/S 3.5, EV/EBITDA 11.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guming Holdings Ltd (1364)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guming Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 78.3%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1364 from its 52-week high?
Guming Holdings Ltd trades at HK$22.78, about 25% below its 52-week high of HK$30.29 and 16% above the low of HK$19.71 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$26.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guming Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guming Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$22.78, calculated fair value HK$26.84 (+18%), Quality Score 67/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1364 calculated?
We run Guming Holdings Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$26.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Guming Holdings Ltd currently trades 15 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guming Holdings Ltd (1364)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$22.78. Our model-based fair value is HK$26.84, about +18% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guming Holdings Ltd right now?
A fairly wide model range (HK$17.76 to HK$45.20) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Guming Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Guming Holdings Ltd (1364)?
The market capitalisation of Guming Holdings Ltd is HK$53.6B (≈ $6.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guming Holdings Ltd (1364)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guming Holdings Ltd is 4.07 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guming Holdings Ltd (1364)?
Earnings per share at Guming Holdings Ltd are HK$0.4600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guming Holdings Ltd (1364)?
The dividend yield of Guming Holdings Ltd is 2.0% (payout 97.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guming Holdings Ltd (1364)?
The net margin of Guming Holdings Ltd is 24.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guming Holdings Ltd (1364)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guming Holdings Ltd is 78.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guming Holdings Ltd (1364)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guming Holdings Ltd is 32.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guming Holdings Ltd (1364)?
The operating margin of Guming Holdings Ltd is 24.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guming Holdings Ltd (1364)?
Revenue at Guming Holdings Ltd is growing +54.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +31.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guming Holdings Ltd (1364)?
Earnings per share at Guming Holdings Ltd are growing +58.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Guming Holdings Ltd (1364) hold?
Guming Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, 4.3B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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