Guming Holdings (1364) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$49.6B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price +15.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 24% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (HK$13.49 to HK$49.82). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (18 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
18‑month range HK$8.72 – HK$30.29 · fair‑value band HK$13.49 – HK$49.82 · the HK$23.60 price screens above the HK$17.85 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Guming Holdings (1364) currently trades at HK$23.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$17.85, implying the stock looks roughly 24.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Guming Holdings generated revenue of HK$12.9B at a net margin of 24.1%. Revenue grew 54.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 78.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$4.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$13.49 (bear case) to HK$49.82 (bull case); at HK$23.60, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -51% fair-value upside, at -24%, 1364 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$58.29) versus Asset-Based (HK$1.67). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Guming Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates as a freshly made beverage company in the People's Republic of China. The company operates a franchised tea store retail network under the Good me brand. Its stores offer fruit tea beverages, milk tea beverages, coffee beverages, and other products.
Full company description
Guming Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates as a freshly made beverage company in the People's Republic of China. The company operates a franchised tea store retail network under the Good me brand. Its stores offer fruit tea beverages, milk tea beverages, coffee beverages, and other products. The company also trades in ingredients and other related beverage products and equipment. In addition, it is involved in warehousing and logistics management; research and development; development of information technology activities; provision of supply chain services; and sale of goods and equipment. Guming Holdings Limited was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guming Holdings reported revenue of HK$12.6B in FY2025 versus HK$4.4B in FY2021, a compound +30.2%/yr. Reported net income was HK$3.0B in FY2025, compounding +250.2%/yr from FY2021.
1364 screens 24% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →
Peer Group
Restaurants · 226 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $108.49 | $35.83 | -67% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $32.00 | $17.92 | -44% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $150.34 | $58.17 | -61% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.50 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $218.90 | $173.68 | -21% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $47.90 | $54.27 | +13% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $214.28 | $104.89 | -51% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $51.02 | $12.80 | -75% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $353.72 | $227.31 | -36% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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