NetEase Inc (9999) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what NetEase Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$77.52 – HK$241.56 · fair‑value band HK$269.22 – HK$575.45 · the HK$183.60 price screens below the HK$442.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
NetEase, Inc. engages in online games, music streaming, online intelligent learning services, and internet content services businesses in China and internationally. The company operates through Games and Related Value-Added Services; Youdao; NetEase Cloud Music; and Innovative Businesses and Others segments.
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NetEase, Inc. engages in online games, music streaming, online intelligent learning services, and internet content services businesses in China and internationally. The company operates through Games and Related Value-Added Services; Youdao; NetEase Cloud Music; and Innovative Businesses and Others segments. It develops and operates mobile and PC games; and offers games licensed from other developers. The company also provides live streaming service, and other related or ancillary value-added services related to games, such as the sale of game-themed merchandise. In addition, it offers digital content services with interactive learning features, including Youdao Lingshi and Youdao Literature; STEAM courses consisting computer coding courses and other STEAM courses; and adult courses, such as China University massive open online course. Further, the company provides Youdao Dictionary, an online language tool; Confucius, a large language model for the education sector; Hi Echo, an AI-driven virtual English-speaking tutor; Mr. P AI Tutor, a conversation-based tool; Youdao Desktop Translation, a desktop dictionary tool; U-Dictionary, an online dictionary and translation app; iRecord, an audio transcription tool; LectMate, an interpretation software for study-abroad lecture scenarios; iArch, an AI home design software; Baby Genius, an AI baby generator; and One Translate Translator, a translation tool for travelers. It also offers online marketing services consisting of performance-based advertising services, and global marketing and promotion services through banners, text links, videos, logos, buttons, and rich media. Additionally, the company develops and offers smart devices, including Youdao Dictionary Pen, Youdao Listening Pod, and Youdao Smart Learning Pad. NetEase, Inc. was formerly known as NetEase.com, Inc. and changed its name to NetEase, Inc. in March 2012. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
NetEase Inc (9999) currently trades at HK$183.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$442.65, implying the stock looks roughly 58.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$441.28 per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$183.60 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$72.37, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$269.22 (bear) to HK$575.45 (bull), the price of HK$183.60 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
NetEase Inc reported revenue of 113B CNY in FY2025 versus 87.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was 33.8B CNY in FY2025, compounding +19.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$672B (≈ $85.6B) · P/E ratio 15.4 · P/S ratio 4.61 · EPS (TTM) HK$11.59 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 30.0% · Return on equity 22.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 28% fair-value upside, at 141%, 9999 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$269.22Fair Value HK$442.65Bull HK$575.45
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$4.98 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.88/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+18.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16% vs 18%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 32%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronic Gaming & Multimedia · 145 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NetEase Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9999
Frequently asked questions
Is NetEase Inc (9999) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$442.65 versus a price of HK$183.60, about +141% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 9999?
Our model-based fair value for NetEase Inc is HK$442.65 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$183.60.
What is the quality score of 9999?
NetEase Inc has a Quality Score of 78/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NetEase Inc (9999)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$442.65 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$269.22, optimistic scenario HK$575.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NetEase Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$442.65, about +141% upside versus a price of HK$183.60 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$269.22, optimistic scenario HK$575.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NetEase Inc (9999)?
NetEase Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$114B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does NetEase Inc pay a dividend?
NetEase Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.58% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into NetEase Inc (9999)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NetEase Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -6.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.9 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9999 use?
Our models discount NetEase Inc at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.80, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NetEase Inc that is -6.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NetEase Inc (9999) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NetEase Inc grew +8.9 % a year. The price currently implies -6.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NetEase Inc (9999) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NetEase Inc (-6.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NetEase Inc (9999)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.16 %: that much free cash flow NetEase Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NetEase Inc (9999)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NetEase Inc it is HK$442.65 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of HK$183.60. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NetEase Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 9999 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$183.60, fair value HK$442.65, a gap of about +141% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9999?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$183.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$442.65). For NetEase Inc the two are HK$259.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NetEase Inc worth?
The market values NetEase Inc at about HK$672B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is HK$183.60; our models calculate a fair value of HK$442.65 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9999?
Our models span a range for NetEase Inc: cautious scenario HK$269.22, base HK$442.65, optimistic HK$575.45 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price HK$183.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9999?
NetEase Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.4 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$442.65 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 4.2, P/S 5.9, EV/EBITDA 15.4.
What is the PEG ratio of 9999?
The PEG ratio of NetEase Inc is 1.40 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 13, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of NetEase Inc (9999)?
Balance-sheet figures for NetEase Inc (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 22.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 78/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9999 from its 52-week high?
NetEase Inc trades at HK$183.60, about 24% below its 52-week high of HK$243.13 and 9% above the low of HK$167.82 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$442.65 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NetEase Inc?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Konami Group, Electronic Arts Inc, Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc, Roblox Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NetEase Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price HK$183.60, calculated fair value HK$442.65 (+141%), Quality Score 78/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9999 calculated?
We run NetEase Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$442.65, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. NetEase Inc currently trades 141 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NetEase Inc (9999)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was HK$183.60. Our model-based fair value is HK$442.65, about +141% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NetEase Inc right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (78/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$269.22). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range (HK$269.22 to HK$575.45) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of NetEase Inc (9999) come from?
Earnings per share at NetEase Inc grew +17.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +18.2 %, EBIT margin −1.7 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of NetEase Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of NetEase Inc (9999)?
The market capitalisation of NetEase Inc is HK$672B (≈ $85.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NetEase Inc (9999)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NetEase Inc is 4.61 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NetEase Inc (9999)?
Earnings per share at NetEase Inc are HK$11.59 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NetEase Inc (9999)?
The dividend yield of NetEase Inc is 2.6% (payout 40.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NetEase Inc (9999)?
The net margin of NetEase Inc is 30.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NetEase Inc (9999)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NetEase Inc is 22.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NetEase Inc (9999)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NetEase Inc is 13.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NetEase Inc (9999)?
The operating margin of NetEase Inc is 41.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NetEase Inc (9999)?
Revenue at NetEase Inc is growing +6.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NetEase Inc (9999)?
Earnings per share at NetEase Inc are growing +3.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does NetEase Inc (9999) hold?
NetEase Inc holds more cash than debt, HK$45.1B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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