ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U (9A4U) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U S$2.31, price S$2.05, upside +12.7%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1.84 SGD – 3.59 SGD · fair‑value band 1.19 SGD – 3.39 SGD · the 2.05 SGD price screens below the 2.31 SGD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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ESR-REIT is a leading New Economy and future-ready Asia Pacific S-REIT. Listed on the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited since 25 July 2006, ESR-REIT invests in quality income-producing industrial properties in key gateway markets.
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ESR-REIT is a leading New Economy and future-ready Asia Pacific S-REIT. Listed on the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited since 25 July 2006, ESR-REIT invests in quality income-producing industrial properties in key gateway markets. As at 31 December 2025, ESR-REIT holds interests in a diversified portfolio of logistics properties, high-specifications industrial properties, business parks and general industrial properties with total assets of approximately 5.9 billion US dollar. Its portfolio comprises 70 properties (excluding 48 Pandan Road held through a joint venture) located across the developed markets of Singapore (50 assets), Australia (18 assets) and Japan (2 assets), with a total gross floor area of approximately 2.4 million sqm, as well as investments in three property funds in Australia. ESR-REIT is also a constituent of the FTSE EPRA Nareit Global Real Estate Index. ESR-REIT is managed by ESR-REIT Management (S) Limited and sponsored by ESR. The Manager is owned by ESR (99.0%) and Shanghai Summit Pte. Ltd. (1.0%), respectively. ESR-REIT was establised on March 31, 2006 and incorporated in Singapore.
Stock analysis
ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U (9A4U) currently trades at 2.05 SGD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2.31 SGD, implying the stock looks roughly 11.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 2.09 SGD per share, and 5 of the 13 models we run sit above the 2.05 SGD price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 0.6700 SGD, and 8 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 1.19 SGD (bear) to 3.39 SGD (bull), the price of 2.05 SGD sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U reported revenue of 446M SGD in FY2025 versus 343M SGD in FY2022, a compound +9.1%/yr. Reported net income was 31.7M SGD in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 1.6B SGD (≈ $1.3B) · P/E ratio 52.0 · P/S ratio 3.69 · EPS (TTM) 0.0394 SGD · Dividend yield 10.8% · Net margin 7.1% · Return on equity 2.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 27% fair-value upside, at 13%, 9A4U screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 1.19 SGDFair Value 2.31 SGDBull 3.39 SGD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
63.5% (2022) → 67.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Singapore: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.1% a year for the price and −2.1% for the forecasts.
Compare ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Industrial · 53 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside+11.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2.6% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets5.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)16.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)67.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0.1% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)10.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.63× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Industrial median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9A4U
Frequently asked questions
Is ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U (9A4U) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 2.31 SGD versus a price of 2.05 SGD, about +13% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 9A4U?
Our model-based fair value for ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U is 2.31 SGD (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 2.05 SGD.
What is the quality score of 9A4U?
ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U (9A4U)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 2.31 SGD (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1.19 SGD, optimistic scenario 3.39 SGD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 2.31 SGD, about +13% upside versus a price of 2.05 SGD (undervalued). Cautious scenario 1.19 SGD, optimistic scenario 3.39 SGD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U (9A4U)?
ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 449M SGD (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U pay a dividend?
ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U currently shows a dividend yield of about 10.83% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U (9A4U)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U would have to grow free cash flow by +5.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +9.1 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9A4U use?
Our models discount ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.60, country premium for Singapore. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U that is +5.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U (9A4U) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U grew +9.1 % a year. The price currently implies +5.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U (9A4U) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U (+5.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U (9A4U)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.06 %: that much free cash flow ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U (9A4U)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U it is 2.31 SGD per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 2.05 SGD. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 9A4U trades below its calculated fair value: price 2.05 SGD, fair value 2.31 SGD, a gap of about +13% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9A4U?
No. The price is what the market pays today (2.05 SGD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (2.31 SGD). For ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U the two are 0.2600 SGD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U worth?
The market values ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U at about 1.6B SGD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 2.05 SGD; our models calculate a fair value of 2.31 SGD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9A4U?
Our models span a range for ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U: cautious scenario 1.19 SGD, base 2.31 SGD, optimistic 3.39 SGD per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 2.05 SGD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9A4U?
ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 52.0 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 2.31 SGD is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 11.6 (reported 52.0). Other multiples: PEG 0.0, P/B 0.7, P/S 6.3.
What is the PEG ratio of 9A4U?
The PEG ratio of ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U is 0.03 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U (9A4U)?
Balance-sheet figures for ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 2.6%, debt of 0.63 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9A4U from its 52-week high?
ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U trades at 2.05 SGD, about 27% below its 52-week high of 2.79 SGD and at the low of 2.05 SGD (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 2.31 SGD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Public Storage, a member of the S&P 500,, Prologis, Inc, Extra Space Storage Inc, EastGroup Properties, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 2.05 SGD, calculated fair value 2.31 SGD (+13%), Quality Score 60/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9A4U calculated?
We run ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 2.31 SGD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U currently trades 11 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U (9A4U)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 2.05 SGD. Our model-based fair value is 2.31 SGD, about +13% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U right now?
The model range is unusually wide (1.19 SGD to 3.39 SGD). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U
How large is the market capitalisation of ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U (9A4U)?
The market capitalisation of ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U is 1.6B SGD (≈ $1.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U (9A4U)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U is 3.69 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U (9A4U)?
Earnings per share at ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U are 0.0394 SGD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 52.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U (9A4U)?
The dividend yield of ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U is 10.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U (9A4U)?
The net margin of ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U is 7.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U (9A4U)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U is 2.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U (9A4U)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U is 4.4% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U (9A4U)?
The operating margin of ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U is 67.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U (9A4U)?
Revenue at ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U is growing +0.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U (9A4U)?
Earnings per share at ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U are growing +75.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U (9A4U) carry?
The net debt of ESR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST U is 2.2B SGD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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