First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc (FR) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $8.5B
First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc
FR · US
Fair value as of: Jul 26, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Share price −1.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 66% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($22.93). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $37.60 – $68.86 · fair‑value band $17.19 – $22.93 · the $63.63 price screens above the $21.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
Analysis
First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc (FR) currently trades at $63.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.48, implying the stock looks roughly 66.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc generated revenue of $745M at a net margin of 46.0%. Revenue grew 10.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.8%. Net debt stands at $2.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $17.19 (bear case) to $22.93 (bull case); at $63.63, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -41% fair-value upside, at -66%, FR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($31.73) versus Growth DCF ($9.36). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. is a leading U.S.-only owner, operator, developer and acquirer of logistics properties. Through our fully integrated operating and investing platform, we provide high quality facilities and industry-leading customer service to multinational corporations and regional firms that are essential for their supply chains.
Full company description
First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. is a leading U.S.-only owner, operator, developer and acquirer of logistics properties. Through our fully integrated operating and investing platform, we provide high quality facilities and industry-leading customer service to multinational corporations and regional firms that are essential for their supply chains. In total, we own and have under development approximately 71.6 million square feet of industrial space concentrated in 15 target MSAs as of March 31, 2026. First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. was established on August 10, 1993 and is based in Chicago, United States.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc reported revenue of $727M in FY2025 versus $476M in FY2021, a compound +11.2%/yr. Reported net income was $247M in FY2025, compounding −2.2%/yr from FY2021.
FR screens 66% overvalued. Compare with Prologis, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- First Industrial Realty Trust Inc (FR) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Leasing ...
- First Industrial lifts 2026 NAREIT FFO outlook to $3.08-$3.16 as it starts a $77M Philadelphia development
- First Industrial Realty Trust (FR) Beats Q2 FFO Estimates
- First Industrial Realty Trust Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
Peer Group
REIT - Industrial · 63 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Industrial median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Industrial stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 26, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prologis, Inc PLD | $143.42 | $61.28 | -57% |
| Public Storage, a member of the S&P 500, PSA | $322.48 | $172.80 | -46% |
| Extra Space Storage Inc EXR | $147.71 | $78.38 | -47% |
| EastGroup Properties, Inc EGP | $213.10 | $81.41 | -62% |
| Lineage, Inc LINE | $41.42 | $47.91 | +16% |
| CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (CLAR) A17U | 2.51 SGD | 2.00 SGD | -20% |
| CubeSmart CUBE | $42.09 | $25.06 | -40% |
| Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc REXR | $39.00 | $21.35 | -45% |
| STAG Industrial, Inc STAG | $41.11 | $24.31 | -41% |
| FIBRA Prologis FIBRAPL14 | 76.48 MXN | 46.89 MXN | -39% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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