Prologis Inc (PLD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Prologis Inc stock $64.21, price $129, that is 50.1% below the price, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Our calculation puts a fair price 50% below what the stock costs today.
Highly profitable · 43.1% net margin (TTM)
Generates free cash flow
3.3% dividend yield · Sustainable
Wide moat68/100
Upbeat coverage
Broad data
Quality 55/100
Expensive Growth(revenue 5y +14.6 %/yr in USD)
Moderate debt
Insiders sold $8.0M (6M)
Fair value $64.21 · Strongly overvalued (−50.1%)
Trails peers(2/15)
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Power grid restrictions clouding Texas data center campus🚩Power grid regulations constrain data center growth🚩Higher borrowing costs raise development hurdles
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $85.44 – $150.68 · fair‑value band $38.73 – $93.78 · the $128.55 price screens above the $64.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Prologis, Inc. is a self-administered and self-managed REIT and is the sole general partner of Prologis, L.P. through which it holds substantially all of its assets.
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We operate Prologis, Inc. and Prologis, L.P. as one enterprise and, therefore, our discussion and analysis refer to Prologis, Inc. and its consolidated subsidiaries, including Prologis, L.P. We invest in real estate through wholly owned subsidiaries and other entities through which we co-invest with partners and investors (co-investment ventures).
We have a significant ownership interest in the co-investment ventures, which are either consolidated or unconsolidated based on our level of control of the entity.
Prologis, Inc. began operating as a fully integrated real estate company in 1997 and elected to be taxed as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended (Internal Revenue Code or IRC). We believe the current organization and method of operation enable Prologis, Inc. to maintain its status as a REIT. Prologis, L.P. was also formed in 1997.
We operate, manage and measure the operating performance of our properties on an owned and managed (O&M) basis. Our O&M portfolio includes our consolidated properties as well as properties owned by our unconsolidated co investment ventures, which we manage.
We make operating decisions based on our total O&M portfolio as we manage the properties without regard to their ownership. Prologis, Inc. was incorporated in 1983 and is based in San Francisco, United States.
Stock analysis
Prologis Inc (PLD) currently trades at $128.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $64.21, 50% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $92.46 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the $128.55 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $37.09, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $38.73 (bear) to $93.78 (bull), the price of $128.55 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Prologis Inc reported revenue of $8.8B in FY2025 versus $4.8B in FY2021, a compound +16.6%/yr. Reported net income was $3.4B in FY2025, compounding +3.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $123B Large · P/E ratio 27.9 · P/S ratio 12.4 · EPS (TTM) $4.50 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 43.1% · Return on equity 7.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −50%, PLD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$38.73Fair Value $64.21Bull$93.78
Price $128.55 · Downside -50.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2378 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $8.0M and none bought.
SaleHamid MoghadamDirector50,000 shares at $149.91$7.5MJul 16, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleTimothy D ArndtChief Financial Officer3,597 shares at $150.00$539,550Jun 15, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleSarah A SlusserDirector10 shares at $127.57$1,276Jan 28, 2026
SaleCristina Gabriela BitaDirector621 shares at $127.60$79,240Dec 1, 202510b5-1 plan
Plus 2 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.9% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+11.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.8% vs 8.1%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.48% → 40%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.9% a year for the price and +4.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (43 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Moderate organization capital from scale forms the main strength, while thin evidence on innovation, human capital and insider activity marks the central limitation for this REIT.
Main risk: Regulatory pauses or restrictions on new data center permits due to grid capacity could delay projects and limit expansion in the data center pipeline.
Bull case: By securing alternative power sources and leveraging its land bank and utility relationships, Prologis could accelerate data center deliveries and capture higher yields despite regulatory pressures.
Bear case: Persistent grid constraints and elevated financing costs might stall the data center pipeline and reduce overall development activity, eroding growth from the new avenue.
Prologis is teaming up with Gaming and Leisure Properties to redevelop a former casino site in Joliet into an industrial park with more than 3.8 million square feet of warehouses developed over five years. The deal positions the company as developer and managing member in a key logistics corridor. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will these projects deliver enough growth to close the gap or highlight stretched expectations?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Industrial · 51 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Below median
Fair Value upside−50.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.7% · Above median
Return on assets3.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)43.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)43.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.66× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Industrial median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)27.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.31× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)12.45× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow24.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA23.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG109.95× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 7
FUTURE (revenue growth)51· sector 15
PAST (return on equity)31· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)67· sector 77
DIVIDEND (yield)66· sector 100
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Prologis Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PLD
Frequently asked questions
Is Prologis Inc (PLD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $64.21 versus a price of $128.55, about 50% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PLD?
Our model-based fair value for Prologis Inc is $64.21 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $128.55.
What is the quality score of PLD?
Prologis Inc has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Prologis Inc (PLD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $64.21 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $38.73, optimistic scenario $93.78. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Prologis Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $64.21, about 50% lower versus a price of $128.55 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $38.73, optimistic scenario $93.78. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Prologis Inc (PLD)?
Prologis Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $9.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Prologis Inc pay a dividend?
Prologis Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 3.28% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Prologis Inc (PLD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Prologis Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +18.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.6 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PLD use?
Our models discount Prologis Inc at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.32, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Prologis Inc that is +18.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Prologis Inc (PLD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Prologis Inc grew +14.6 % a year. The price currently implies +18.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Prologis Inc (PLD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Prologis Inc (+18.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Prologis Inc (PLD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.07 %: that much free cash flow Prologis Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Prologis Inc (PLD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Prologis Inc it is $64.21 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $128.55. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Prologis Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, PLD trades above its calculated fair value: price $128.55, fair value $64.21, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PLD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($128.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($64.21). For Prologis Inc the two are $64.34 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Prologis Inc worth?
The market values Prologis Inc at about $123B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $128.55; our models calculate a fair value of $64.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PLD?
Our models span a range for Prologis Inc: cautious scenario $38.73, base $64.21, optimistic $93.78 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $128.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PLD?
Prologis Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.9 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $64.21 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), earnings ex one-offs: 37.2. Other multiples: PEG 110.0, P/B 2.3, P/S 12.4, EV/EBITDA 23.0.
What is the PEG ratio of PLD?
The PEG ratio of Prologis Inc is 109.95 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Prologis Inc (PLD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Prologis Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 7.7%, debt of 0.66 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PLD from its 52-week high?
Prologis Inc trades at $128.55, about 14% below its 52-week high of $148.88 and 8% above the low of $118.67 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $64.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Prologis Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Public Storage, Extra Space Storage Inc, EastGroup Properties, Inc, CubeSmart, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Prologis Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $128.55, calculated fair value $64.21 (−50%), Quality Score 55/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PLD calculated?
We run Prologis Inc through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $64.21, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Prologis Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Prologis Inc (PLD)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $128.55. Our model-based fair value is $64.21, about 50% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Prologis Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($93.78). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($38.73 to $93.78) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Prologis Inc (PLD) come from?
Earnings per share at Prologis Inc grew +8.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.8 %, EBIT margin +9.2 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −8.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Prologis Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Prologis Inc (PLD)?
The market capitalisation of Prologis Inc is $123B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Prologis Inc (PLD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Prologis Inc is 12.4 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Prologis Inc (PLD)?
Earnings per share at Prologis Inc are $4.50 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Prologis Inc (PLD)?
The dividend yield of Prologis Inc is 3.3% (payout 93.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Prologis Inc (PLD)?
The net margin of Prologis Inc is 43.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Prologis Inc (PLD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Prologis Inc is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Prologis Inc (PLD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Prologis Inc is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Prologis Inc (PLD)?
The operating margin of Prologis Inc is 43.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Prologis Inc (PLD)?
Revenue at Prologis Inc is growing +10.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Prologis Inc (PLD)?
Earnings per share at Prologis Inc are growing +3.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Prologis Inc (PLD) carry?
The net debt of Prologis Inc is $33.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026