STAG Industrial, Inc (STAG) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $7.6B
STAG Industrial, Inc
STAG · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price −3.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 35% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($30.39). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($15.45 to $30.39) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $23.20 – $42.04 · fair‑value band $15.45 – $30.39 · the $37.30 price screens above the $24.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
STAG Industrial, Inc (STAG) currently trades at $37.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $24.31, implying the stock looks roughly 34.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, STAG Industrial, Inc generated revenue of $864M at a net margin of 28.3%. Revenue grew 9.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.9%. Net debt stands at $3.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $15.45 (bear case) to $30.39 (bull case); at $37.30, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -35%, STAG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($35.89) versus Asset-Based ($12.60). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
STAG Industrial, Inc. is a real estate investment trust focused on the acquisition, development, ownership, and operation of industrial properties throughout the United States. As of December 31, 2025, the Company's portfolio consists of 601 buildings in 41 states with approximately 120.0 million rentable square feet. STAG Industrial, Inc.
Full company description
STAG Industrial, Inc. is a real estate investment trust focused on the acquisition, development, ownership, and operation of industrial properties throughout the United States. As of December 31, 2025, the Company's portfolio consists of 601 buildings in 41 states with approximately 120.0 million rentable square feet. STAG Industrial, Inc. was incorporated in 2010 and is based in Boston, United States.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
STAG Industrial, Inc reported revenue of $845M in FY2025 versus $562M in FY2021, a compound +10.7%/yr. Reported net income was $273M in FY2025, compounding +9.2%/yr from FY2021.
STAG screens 35% overvalued. Compare with Prologis, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- STAG INDUSTRIAL RECEIVES 'BBB' INVESTMENT GRADE RATING FROM S&P GLOBAL RATINGS
- Does STAG Industrial (STAG) Pairing Dividend Support With New Deals Reveal Its Real Capital Priorities?
- Stag Industrial Inc (STAG) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Leasing Spreads and Robust ...
- STAG Industrial (STAG) On Q2 Results And Dividend News Still Looks Near Fair Value
Peer Group
REIT - Industrial · 63 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Industrial median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Industrial stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prologis, Inc PLD | $143.42 | $61.28 | -57% |
| Public Storage, a member of the S&P 500, PSA | $322.48 | $172.80 | -46% |
| Extra Space Storage Inc EXR | $147.71 | $78.38 | -47% |
| EastGroup Properties, Inc EGP | $213.10 | $81.41 | -62% |
| Lineage, Inc LINE | $41.42 | $47.91 | +16% |
| CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (CLAR) A17U | 2.51 SGD | 2.00 SGD | -20% |
| CubeSmart CUBE | $42.09 | $25.06 | -40% |
| First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc FR | $66.99 | $21.48 | -68% |
| Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc REXR | $39.00 | $21.35 | -45% |
| FIBRA Prologis FIBRAPL14 | 76.48 MXN | 46.89 MXN | -39% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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