Asahi Co. Ltd (AAHIF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of Asahi Co. Ltd $12.08, price $8.30, upside +45.6%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.37 – $9.59 · fair‑value band $9.06 – $15.09 · the $8.30 price screens below the $12.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Asahi Co., Ltd. sells bicycles, parts, accessories, and other related products in Japan and China. It offers wholesale and retail general, sports, children's, folding, and electric assist bicycles; and ancillary services, such as maintenance, repair, and other services; and sales of its own branded products to franchised stores.
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Asahi Co., Ltd. sells bicycles, parts, accessories, and other related products in Japan and China. It offers wholesale and retail general, sports, children's, folding, and electric assist bicycles; and ancillary services, such as maintenance, repair, and other services; and sales of its own branded products to franchised stores. It operates retail and online stores. The company sells its products under the Cycle Base Asahi brand. The company was formerly known as Asahi Gangu and changed its name to Asahi Co., Ltd. in May 1992. Asahi Co., Ltd. was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Osaka, Japan.
Stock analysis
Asahi Co. Ltd (AAHIF) currently trades at $8.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.08, implying the stock looks roughly 31.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $13.83 per share, and 17 of the 23 models we run sit above the $8.30 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.51, and 6 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $9.06 (bear) to $15.09 (bull), the price of $8.30 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Asahi Co. Ltd reported revenue of ¥81.4B in FY2026 versus ¥71.4B in FY2022, a compound +3.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥2.3B in FY2026, compounding −10.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $216M · P/E ratio 9.6 · P/S ratio 0.27 · EPS (TTM) $0.8600 · Dividend yield 4.1% · Net margin 2.8% · Return on equity 5.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at 46%, AAHIF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $9.06Fair Value $12.08Bull $15.09
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.45/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.3% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−7.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−11.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.1%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 5%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −10.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 230 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+46% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6% · Below median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)−2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
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Is Asahi Co. Ltd (AAHIF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.08 versus the last price from Sep 18, 2026 of $8.30, about +46% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AAHIF?
Our model-based fair value for Asahi Co. Ltd is $12.08 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 18, 2026): $8.30.
What is the quality score of AAHIF?
Asahi Co. Ltd has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Asahi Co. Ltd (AAHIF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.08 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.06, optimistic scenario $15.09. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Asahi Co. Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.08, about +46% upside versus the last price from Sep 18, 2026 of $8.30 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $9.06, optimistic scenario $15.09. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Asahi Co. Ltd (AAHIF)?
Asahi Co. Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥81.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Asahi Co. Ltd pay a dividend?
Asahi Co. Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.13% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Asahi Co. Ltd (AAHIF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Asahi Co. Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -9.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AAHIF use?
Our models discount Asahi Co. Ltd at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.10, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Asahi Co. Ltd that is -9.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Asahi Co. Ltd (AAHIF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Asahi Co. Ltd grew +3.2 % a year. The price currently implies -9.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Asahi Co. Ltd (AAHIF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Asahi Co. Ltd (-9.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Asahi Co. Ltd (AAHIF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.58 %: that much free cash flow Asahi Co. Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Asahi Co. Ltd (AAHIF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Asahi Co. Ltd it is $12.08 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $8.30. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Asahi Co. Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, AAHIF trades below its calculated fair value: price $8.30, fair value $12.08, a gap of about +46% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AAHIF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.08). For Asahi Co. Ltd the two are $3.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Asahi Co. Ltd worth?
The market values Asahi Co. Ltd at about $216M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $8.30; our models calculate a fair value of $12.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AAHIF?
Our models span a range for Asahi Co. Ltd: cautious scenario $9.06, base $12.08, optimistic $15.09 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $8.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AAHIF?
Asahi Co. Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $12.08 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 3.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Asahi Co. Ltd (AAHIF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Asahi Co. Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 5.7%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AAHIF from its 52-week high?
Asahi Co. Ltd trades at $8.30, at its 52-week high of $8.30 and 6% above the low of $7.83 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Asahi Co. Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Asahi Co. Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $8.30, calculated fair value $12.08 (+46%), Quality Score 64/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AAHIF calculated?
We run Asahi Co. Ltd through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $12.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Asahi Co. Ltd currently trades 46 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Asahi Co. Ltd (AAHIF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 18, 2026 and stands at $8.30. Our model-based fair value is $12.08, about +46% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Asahi Co. Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($9.06). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Asahi Co. Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Asahi Co. Ltd (AAHIF)?
The market capitalisation of Asahi Co. Ltd is $216M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Asahi Co. Ltd (AAHIF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Asahi Co. Ltd is 0.27 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Asahi Co. Ltd (AAHIF)?
Earnings per share at Asahi Co. Ltd are $0.8600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Asahi Co. Ltd (AAHIF)?
The dividend yield of Asahi Co. Ltd is 4.1% (payout 39.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Asahi Co. Ltd (AAHIF)?
The net margin of Asahi Co. Ltd is 2.8% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Asahi Co. Ltd (AAHIF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Asahi Co. Ltd is 5.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Asahi Co. Ltd (AAHIF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Asahi Co. Ltd is 9.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Asahi Co. Ltd (AAHIF)?
The operating margin of Asahi Co. Ltd is −1.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Asahi Co. Ltd (AAHIF)?
Revenue at Asahi Co. Ltd is growing +1.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Asahi Co. Ltd (AAHIF)?
Earnings per share at Asahi Co. Ltd are growing −41.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026