AAON, Inc (AAON) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $9.1B
AAON, Inc
AAON · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $23.62 to $35.43 (+50.0%) since Jul 14, 2026. Share price −17.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 61% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($46.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($24.80 to $46.05) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $31.27 – $148.15 · fair‑value band $24.80 – $46.05 · the $90.28 price screens above the $35.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
AAON, Inc (AAON) currently trades at $90.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $35.43, implying the stock looks roughly 60.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, AAON, Inc generated revenue of $1.6B at a net margin of 7.3%. Revenue grew 54.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.5%. Net debt stands at $425M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $24.80 (bear case) to $46.05 (bull case); at $90.28, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -33% fair-value upside, at -61%, AAON screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($22.98) versus Dividend Discount ($6.02). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
AAON, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering, manufacturing, marketing, and selling air conditioning and heating equipment in the United States and Canada. The company operates through three segments: AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BASX.
Full company description
AAON, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering, manufacturing, marketing, and selling air conditioning and heating equipment in the United States and Canada. The company operates through three segments: AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BASX. It offers rooftop units, data center cooling solutions, cleanroom systems, packaged outdoor mechanical rooms, air handling units, makeup air units, energy recovery units, condensing units, geothermal/water-source heat pumps, coils, and controls. The company markets and sells its products to retail, manufacturing, educational, lodging, supermarket, data centers, medical and pharmaceutical, and other commercial industries. It sells its products through a network of independent manufacturer representative organizations and internal sales force, as well as online. AAON, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AAON, Inc reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $535M in FY2021, a compound +28.2%/yr. Reported net income was $108M in FY2025, compounding +16.3%/yr from FY2021.
AAON screens 61% overvalued. Compare with Trane Technologies plc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Aaon (AAON) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release
- AAON (AAON) Backlog Strengthens From Data Centre Buildout and Margin Improvement
- AAON Increases Board Size and Appoints Robert L. Buttermore III, and Patrick J. Jermain as Independent Directors
- Data Centre Cooling Demand Boosted AAON (AAON)
Peer Group
Building Products & Equipment · 245 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Building Products & Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trane Technologies plc TT | $469.98 | $212.34 | -55% |
| Johnson Controls International plc JCI | $142.81 | $45.65 | -68% |
| Carrier Global Corporation CARR | $68.61 | $17.35 | -75% |
| Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A SGO | €76.62 | €101.60 | +33% |
| Geberit AG GEBN | CHF 523.20 | CHF 307.66 | -41% |
| Lennox International Inc LII | $543.93 | $363.09 | -33% |
| Kingspan Group KRX | €87.30 | €70.76 | -19% |
| Masco Corporation MAS | $78.04 | $54.36 | -30% |
| PT Impack Pratama Industri Tbk, IMPC | 1,420 IDR | 179.76 IDR | -87% |
| NIBE Industrier AB NIBEB | kr 36.03 | kr 25.37 | -30% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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