AAON Inc (AAON) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what AAON Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $31.27 – $148.15 · fair‑value band $24.80 – $46.05 · the $76.40 price screens above the $35.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
AAON, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering, manufacturing, marketing, and selling air conditioning and heating equipment in the United States and Canada. The company operates through three segments: AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BASX.
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AAON, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering, manufacturing, marketing, and selling air conditioning and heating equipment in the United States and Canada. The company operates through three segments: AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BASX. It offers rooftop units, data center cooling solutions, cleanroom systems, packaged outdoor mechanical rooms, air handling units, makeup air units, energy recovery units, condensing units, geothermal/water-source heat pumps, coils, and controls. The company markets and sells its products to retail, manufacturing, educational, lodging, supermarket, data centers, medical and pharmaceutical, and other commercial industries. It sells its products through a network of independent manufacturer representative organizations and internal sales force, as well as online. AAON, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Stock analysis
AAON Inc (AAON) currently trades at $76.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $35.43, implying the stock looks roughly 115.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $23.62 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the $76.40 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $6.02, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $24.80 (bear) to $46.05 (bull), the price of $76.40 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
AAON Inc reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $535M in FY2021, a compound +28.2%/yr. Reported net income was $108M in FY2025, compounding +16.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $9.1B · P/E ratio 53.8 · P/S ratio 4.01 · EPS (TTM) $1.42 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 7.5% · Return on equity 13.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −54%, AAON screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $24.80Fair Value $35.43Bull $46.05
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7161 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.9%
Revenue growth 35 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+16.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12% vs 7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 11%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Products & Equipment · 250 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−55% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)12% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth54% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.45× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)53.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B10.20× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)5.64× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA37.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG3.40× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 7
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 11
PAST (return on equity)54· sector 22
HEALTH (low debt)78· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)10· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AAON Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AAON
Frequently asked questions
Is AAON Inc (AAON) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $35.43 versus a price of $76.40, about −54% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AAON?
Our model-based fair value for AAON Inc is $35.43 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $76.40.
What is the quality score of AAON?
AAON Inc has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AAON Inc (AAON)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $35.43 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $24.80, optimistic scenario $46.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AAON Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $35.43, about −54% upside versus a price of $76.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $24.80, optimistic scenario $46.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AAON Inc (AAON)?
AAON Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does AAON Inc pay a dividend?
AAON Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.52% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of AAON Inc (AAON)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AAON Inc it is $35.43 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $76.40. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AAON Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, AAON trades above its calculated fair value: price $76.40, fair value $35.43, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AAON?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($76.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($35.43). For AAON Inc the two are $40.97 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AAON Inc worth?
The market values AAON Inc at about $9.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $76.40; our models calculate a fair value of $35.43 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AAON?
Our models span a range for AAON Inc: cautious scenario $24.80, base $35.43, optimistic $46.05 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price $76.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AAON?
AAON Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 53.8 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $35.43 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.4, P/B 10.2, P/S 5.6, EV/EBITDA 37.9.
What is the PEG ratio of AAON?
The PEG ratio of AAON Inc is 3.40 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of AAON Inc (AAON)?
Balance-sheet figures for AAON Inc (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 13.5%, debt of 0.45 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AAON from its 52-week high?
AAON Inc trades at $76.40, about 49% below its 52-week high of $149.00 and 24% above the low of $61.78 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $35.43 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AAON Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Trane Technologies plc, Johnson Controls International plc, Carrier Global Corporation, Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AAON Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $76.40, calculated fair value $35.43 (−54%), Quality Score 40/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AAON calculated?
We run AAON Inc through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $35.43, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. AAON Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AAON Inc (AAON)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $76.40. Our model-based fair value is $35.43, about −54% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AAON Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($46.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($24.80 to $46.05) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of AAON Inc (AAON) come from?
Earnings per share at AAON Inc grew +11.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.1 %, EBIT margin −2.8 %, tax rate +2.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of AAON Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of AAON Inc (AAON)?
The market capitalisation of AAON Inc is $9.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AAON Inc (AAON)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AAON Inc is 4.01 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AAON Inc (AAON)?
Earnings per share at AAON Inc are $1.42 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 53.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AAON Inc (AAON)?
The dividend yield of AAON Inc is 0.5% (payout 28.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AAON Inc (AAON)?
The net margin of AAON Inc is 7.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AAON Inc (AAON)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AAON Inc is 13.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AAON Inc (AAON)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AAON Inc is 15.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AAON Inc (AAON)?
The operating margin of AAON Inc is 11.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AAON Inc (AAON)?
Revenue at AAON Inc is growing +54.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AAON Inc (AAON)?
Earnings per share at AAON Inc are growing +37.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does AAON Inc (AAON) generate?
The free cash flow of AAON Inc is −$191M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does AAON Inc (AAON) carry?
The net debt of AAON Inc is $425M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 18, 2026