Astral Resources NL (AAR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 5, 2026: fair value of Astral Resources NL A$0.03, price A$0.18, upside -85.4%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0510 – A$0.2900 · fair‑value band A$0.0170 – A$0.0340 · the A$0.1750 price screens above the A$0.0255 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
Follow Astral Resources NL in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Astral Resources NL is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Astral Resources NL engages in the exploration and evaluation of gold properties in Western Australia. The company's flagship property is the 100% owned Mandilla Gold project located in the northern Widgiemooltha greenstone belt in Western Australia.
Show more
Astral Resources NL engages in the exploration and evaluation of gold properties in Western Australia. The company's flagship property is the 100% owned Mandilla Gold project located in the northern Widgiemooltha greenstone belt in Western Australia. The company was formerly known as Anglo Australian Resources NL and changed its name to Astral Resources NL in April 2022. Astral Resources NL was incorporated in 1985 and is based in South Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Astral Resources NL (AAR) currently trades at A$0.1750, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0255, 85.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: A$0.0170 (bear) to A$0.0340 (bull), the price of A$0.1750 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Astral Resources NL reported revenue of A$795K in FY2025 versus A$0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −A$2.3M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap A$315M (≈ $219M) · Return on equity −1.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.6% · Revenue (TTM) A$795K · Revenue growth (YoY) +32.0% · Free cash flow −A$3.6M · Net cash A$64.6M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 25 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 59% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −85%, AAR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.0170Fair Value A$0.0255Bull A$0.0340
Price A$0.1750 · Upside -85.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.32/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3,202.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+248.9%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.8%
’05
’06
’07
’08
’10
’11
’12
’19
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−10,152.3% (2019) → −426.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 217 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Below median
Fair Value upside−85.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−2.0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)0.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth32.0% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.46× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 1
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 21
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Astral Resources NL (AAR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0255 versus a price of A$0.1750, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AAR?
Our model-based fair value for Astral Resources NL is A$0.0255 (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.1750.
What is the quality score of AAR?
Astral Resources NL has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Astral Resources NL (AAR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0255 (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0170, optimistic scenario A$0.0340. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Astral Resources NL stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0255, about −85% upside versus a price of A$0.1750 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0170, optimistic scenario A$0.0340. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Astral Resources NL (AAR)?
Astral Resources NL reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$795K (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Astral Resources NL (AAR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Astral Resources NL it is A$0.0255 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of A$0.1750. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Astral Resources NL stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, AAR trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.1750, fair value A$0.0255, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AAR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.1750); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0255). For Astral Resources NL the two are A$0.1495 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Astral Resources NL worth?
The market values Astral Resources NL at about A$315M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is A$0.1750; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0255 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AAR?
Our models span a range for Astral Resources NL: cautious scenario A$0.0170, base A$0.0255, optimistic A$0.0340 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price A$0.1750). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Astral Resources NL (AAR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Astral Resources NL (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity −1.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AAR from its 52-week high?
Astral Resources NL trades at A$0.1750, about 40% below its 52-week high of A$0.2900 and 59% above the low of A$0.1100 (as of Oct 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0255 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Astral Resources NL?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Astral Resources NL stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price A$0.1750, calculated fair value A$0.0255 (−85%), Quality Score 38/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AAR calculated?
We run Astral Resources NL through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0255, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Astral Resources NL itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Astral Resources NL (AAR)?
The closing price on Oct 5, 2026 was A$0.1750. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0255, about −85% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Astral Resources NL right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0340). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0170 to A$0.0340) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Astral Resources NL
How large is the market capitalisation of Astral Resources NL (AAR)?
The market capitalisation of Astral Resources NL is A$315M (≈ $219M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the return on equity of Astral Resources NL (AAR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Astral Resources NL is −1.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Astral Resources NL (AAR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Astral Resources NL is −6.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Astral Resources NL (AAR)?
Revenue at Astral Resources NL is growing +32.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +249%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Astral Resources NL (AAR) generate?
The free cash flow of Astral Resources NL is −A$3.6M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Astral Resources NL (AAR) hold?
Astral Resources NL holds more cash than debt, A$64.6M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Astral Resources NL in the live analysis
One click puts Astral Resources NL on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
