Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Allied Gold Corporation $19.88, price $22.38, upside -11.2%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
25‑month range $6.09 – $32.01 · fair‑value band $11.74 – $34.63 · the $22.38 price screens above the $19.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Allied Gold Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as gold mining company in Africa. It primarily explores gold and silver deposits. The company's flagship project is the Sadiola gold project comprising of 2 mining licenses located in the Republic of Mali.
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Allied Gold Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as gold mining company in Africa. It primarily explores gold and silver deposits. The company's flagship project is the Sadiola gold project comprising of 2 mining licenses located in the Republic of Mali. The company was formerly known as Allied Gold Corp Limited & Allied Merger Corporation and changed its name to Allied Gold Corporation in September 2023. Allied Gold Corporation is based in Toronto, Canada.
Stock analysis
Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC) currently trades at $22.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.88, implying the stock looks roughly 12.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $34.08 per share, and 6 of the 13 models we run sit above the $22.38 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $16.48, and 7 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $11.74 (bear) to $34.63 (bull), the price of $22.38 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Allied Gold Corporation reported revenue of $1.3B in FY2025 versus $670M in FY2022, a compound +25.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$51.8M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $3.3B · P/S ratio 2.22 · EPS (TTM) $−0.5400 · Net margin −3.9% · Return on equity −2.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.1% · Operating margin 40.2% · Revenue (TTM) $1.5B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −11%, AAUC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $11.74Fair Value $19.88Bull $34.63
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.56/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+82.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.8%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+35.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.3% a year for the price and +32.6% for the forecasts.
Compare Allied Gold Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Below median
Fair Value upside−11% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets16% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)−4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)40% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth45% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.25× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
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Is Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $19.88 versus a price of $22.38, about −11% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AAUC?
Our model-based fair value for Allied Gold Corporation is $19.88 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $22.38.
What is the quality score of AAUC?
Allied Gold Corporation has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $19.88 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.74, optimistic scenario $34.63. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Allied Gold Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $19.88, about −11% upside versus a price of $22.38 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.74, optimistic scenario $34.63. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC)?
Allied Gold Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Allied Gold Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +17.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +25.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AAUC use?
Our models discount Allied Gold Corporation at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.61, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Allied Gold Corporation that is +17.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Allied Gold Corporation grew +25.8 % a year. The price currently implies +17.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Allied Gold Corporation (+17.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.68 %: that much free cash flow Allied Gold Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Allied Gold Corporation it is $19.88 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $22.38. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Allied Gold Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AAUC trades above its calculated fair value: price $22.38, fair value $19.88, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AAUC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($22.38); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($19.88). For Allied Gold Corporation the two are $2.50 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Allied Gold Corporation worth?
The market values Allied Gold Corporation at about $3.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $22.38; our models calculate a fair value of $19.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AAUC?
Our models span a range for Allied Gold Corporation: cautious scenario $11.74, base $19.88, optimistic $34.63 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $22.38). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Allied Gold Corporation (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −2.9%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AAUC from its 52-week high?
Allied Gold Corporation trades at $22.38, about 30% below its 52-week high of $32.01 and 53% above the low of $14.66 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $19.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Allied Gold Corporation?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Zijin Mining Group, Newmont Corporation, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Barrick Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Allied Gold Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $22.38, calculated fair value $19.88 (−11%), Quality Score 38/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AAUC calculated?
We run Allied Gold Corporation through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $19.88, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Allied Gold Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $22.38. Our model-based fair value is $19.88, about −11% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Allied Gold Corporation right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($11.74 to $34.63). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Allied Gold Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC)?
The market capitalisation of Allied Gold Corporation is $3.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Allied Gold Corporation is 2.22 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC)?
Earnings per share at Allied Gold Corporation are $−0.5400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC)?
The net margin of Allied Gold Corporation is −3.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Allied Gold Corporation is −2.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Allied Gold Corporation is 11.1% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC)?
The operating margin of Allied Gold Corporation is 40.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC)?
Revenue at Allied Gold Corporation is growing +45.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +25.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC) hold?
Allied Gold Corporation holds more cash than debt, $310M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026