AAV.TO (AAV) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · CA · Market cap C$1.8B
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 10 days ago
Share price +3.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 59% overvalued on our models.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$5.75). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$3.34 – C$12.69 · fair‑value band C$3.46 – C$5.75 · the C$11.20 price screens above the C$4.62 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
AAV.TO (AAV) currently trades at C$11.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$4.62, implying the stock looks roughly 58.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, AAV.TO generated revenue of C$637M at a net margin of 17.5%. Revenue declined 4.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.6%. Net debt stands at C$863M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$3.46 (bear case) to C$5.75 (bull case); at C$11.20, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at -59%, AAV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (C$6.76) versus Economic Profit (C$0.7800). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Advantage Energy Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploitation, development, and production natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) in the Province of Alberta, Canada. Advantage Energy Ltd. was formerly known as Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. and changed its name to Advantage Energy Ltd. in May 2021.
Full company description
Advantage Energy Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploitation, development, and production natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) in the Province of Alberta, Canada. Advantage Energy Ltd. was formerly known as Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. and changed its name to Advantage Energy Ltd. in May 2021. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AAV.TO reported revenue of C$646M in FY2025 versus C$492M in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was C$53.1M in FY2025, compounding −40.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +13.3 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.1 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
AAV screens 59% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 328 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥32.85 | ¥32.55 | -1% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $126.78 | $90.15 | -29% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $47.57 | $31.14 | -35% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $153.05 | $130.19 | -15% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $58.55 | $30.06 | -49% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $210.02 | $105.24 | -50% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $44.86 | $27.06 | -40% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$32.55 | A$20.71 | -36% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $54.06 | $42.85 | -21% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $342.77 | $77.26 | -77% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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