Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (AAV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 7, 2026: fair value of Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. C$4.30, price C$10.31, upside -58.3%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$4.31 – C$12.69 · fair‑value band C$3.01 – C$5.60 · the C$10.31 price screens above the C$4.30 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
Follow Advantage Oil & Gas in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Advantage Oil & Gas is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Advantage Energy Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploitation, development, and production natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) in the Province of Alberta, Canada. Advantage Energy Ltd. was formerly known as Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. and changed its name to Advantage Energy Ltd. in May 2021.
Show more
Advantage Energy Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploitation, development, and production natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) in the Province of Alberta, Canada. Advantage Energy Ltd. was formerly known as Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. and changed its name to Advantage Energy Ltd. in May 2021. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (AAV) currently trades at C$10.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$4.30, 58.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of C$6.77 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the C$10.31 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at C$0.7800, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: C$3.01 (bear) to C$5.60 (bull), the price of C$10.31 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. reported revenue of C$646M in FY2025 versus C$492M in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was C$53.1M in FY2025, compounding −40.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$1.9B (≈ $1.3B) · P/E ratio 21.0 · P/S ratio 1.73 · EPS (TTM) C$0.4900 · Net margin 8.2% · Return on equity 4.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.5% · Operating margin 39.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −58%, AAV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$3.01Fair Value C$4.30Bull C$5.60
Price C$10.31 · Upside -58.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$0.3772 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +17.2% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.0%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−31.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−31.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−31.5% vs 11.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 15%
Compare Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 271 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Below median
Fair Value upside−58.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4.8% · Below median
Return on assets3.5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)12.6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)39.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth19.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.32× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)21.0× · Pricier than median
P/B1.09× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)2.78× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA6.0× · Pricier than median
PEG0.24× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 25
FUTURE (revenue growth)96· sector 96
PAST (return on equity)19· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)84· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 69
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AAV
Frequently asked questions
Is Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (AAV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$4.30 versus a price of C$10.31, about −58% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AAV?
Our model-based fair value for Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. is C$4.30 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$10.31.
What is the quality score of AAV?
Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (AAV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$4.30 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$3.01, optimistic scenario C$5.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$4.30, about −58% upside versus a price of C$10.31 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$3.01, optimistic scenario C$5.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (AAV)?
Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$666M (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (AAV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. it is C$4.30 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of C$10.31. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, AAV trades above its calculated fair value: price C$10.31, fair value C$4.30, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AAV?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$10.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$4.30). For Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. the two are C$6.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. worth?
The market values Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. at about C$1.9B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is C$10.31; our models calculate a fair value of C$4.30 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AAV?
Our models span a range for Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd.: cautious scenario C$3.01, base C$4.30, optimistic C$5.60 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price C$10.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AAV?
Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.0 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$4.30 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 1.1, P/S 2.8, EV/EBITDA 6.0.
What is the PEG ratio of AAV?
The PEG ratio of Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. is 0.24 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 1, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (AAV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 4.8%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AAV from its 52-week high?
Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. trades at C$10.31, about 19% below its 52-week high of C$12.69 and 9% above the low of C$9.45 (as of Oct 7, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$4.30 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd.?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price C$10.31, calculated fair value C$4.30 (−58%), Quality Score 42/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AAV calculated?
We run Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$4.30, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.3 % above its aggregate fair value. Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (AAV)?
The closing price on Oct 7, 2026 was C$10.31. Our model-based fair value is C$4.30, about −58% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$5.60). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (C$3.01 to C$5.60) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (AAV) come from?
Earnings per share at Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. grew +13.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.4 %, EBIT margin −2.3 %, tax rate +3.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (AAV)?
The market capitalisation of Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. is C$1.9B (≈ $1.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (AAV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. is 1.73 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (AAV)?
Earnings per share at Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. are C$0.4900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (AAV)?
The net margin of Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. is 8.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (AAV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (AAV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. is 10.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (AAV)?
The operating margin of Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. is 39.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (AAV)?
Revenue at Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. is growing +19.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (AAV)?
Earnings per share at Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. are growing −36.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (AAV) generate?
The free cash flow of Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. is −C$33.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (AAV) carry?
The net debt of Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. is C$863M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. in the live analysis
One click puts Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener.
