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Acadian Timber Corp (ACAZF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Acadian Timber Corp $9.33, price $11.95, upside -21.9%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Acadian Timber Corp
ACAZF · USWeak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.
!Fair value $9.33 · Overvalued (−21.9%)
!Quality 48/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −0.9 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 57.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!9.7% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Moderate moat 56/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.44 – $12.94 · fair‑value band $8.51 – $9.33 · the $11.95 price screens above the $9.33 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Acadian Timber Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provides forest products in Eastern Canada and the Northeastern United States. The company operates through New Brunswick Timberlands, Maine Timberlands, and Environmental Solutions segments. It offers timber products, such as softwood and hardwood sawlogs, pulpwood, and biomass by-products.
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Acadian Timber Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provides forest products in Eastern Canada and the Northeastern United States. The company operates through New Brunswick Timberlands, Maine Timberlands, and Environmental Solutions segments. It offers timber products, such as softwood and hardwood sawlogs, pulpwood, and biomass by-products. The company also owns and manages freehold timberlands in New Brunswick and Maine; and provides timber services relating to Crown licensed timberlands in New Brunswick. In addition, it provides forest management and environmental solutions; and engages in real estate activities. Acadian Timber Corp. was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Edmundston, Canada.
Stock analysis
Acadian Timber Corp (ACAZF) currently trades at $11.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.33, 21.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $24.17 per share, and 7 of the 16 models we run sit above the $11.95 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $3.09, and 9 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $8.51 (bear) to $9.33 (bull), the price of $11.95 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Acadian Timber Corp reported revenue of C$87.0M in FY2025 versus C$95.7M in FY2021, a compound −2.4%/yr. Reported net income was C$49.0M in FY2025, compounding +27.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $217M · P/E ratio 6.2 · P/S ratio 3.51 · EPS (TTM) $1.92 · Dividend yield 9.7% · Net margin 56.3% · Return on equity 13.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at −22%, ACAZF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $8.51
Fair Value $9.33
Bull $9.33
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5747 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings
$10.20
$13.57
$18.89
77
Residual Income
$12.04
$13.50
$16.16
76
5Y EBITDA Exit
n/a
$0.2200
>$0.8800
72
All 19 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings
$10.20
$13.57
$18.89
77
5Y Revenue Exit
n/a
n/a
$1.52
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
n/a
$0.2200
>$0.8800
72
5Y P/E Exit
$7.75
$15.57
$24.54
69
10Y EBITDA Exit
n/a
n/a
$0.3100
65
10Y P/E Exit
$2.94
$7.86
$13.08
61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$12.67
$22.44
$27.59
66
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$2.75
$3.32
$3.84
69
DDM Multi-Stage
$2.75
$3.43
$4.12
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$23.75
$31.67
$39.58
63
P/S Multiple
$3.72
$4.96
$6.20
58
P/B Multiple
$23.75
$31.67
$39.58
55
EV/EBIT
$1.32
$3.09
$4.86
62
EV/EBITDA
$0.3300
$1.78
$3.22
60
EV/Revenue
n/a
$0.9600
$2.45
50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$6.84
$9.17
$13.68
54
Growth DCF
Rev-Margin DCF
n/a
n/a
$1.31
69
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$12.04
$13.50
$16.16
76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$16.92
$24.17
$31.42
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
48/100
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Profitability
43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
24
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
40
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
79
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
95
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
38
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
52
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
50
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
39/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−25.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.3% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.2%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+18.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.19.2% vs 10.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.36% → 15%
2025 sits 57% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+49.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CAD, Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +45.9% a year for the price.
ACAZF screens overvalued: fair value 22% below the price. Compare with Simpson Manufacturing Co →
Compare Acadian Timber Corp with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lumber & Wood Production · 71 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Lumber & Wood Production median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Lumber & Wood Production stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simpson Manufacturing Co SSD | $176.55 | $194.21 | +10% |
| UFP Industries, Inc UFPI | $79.49 | $103.76 | +31% |
| Stella-Jones Inc SJ | C$69.65 | C$115.37 | +66% |
| Boise Cascade Company BCC | $74.15 | $52.72 | −29% |
| Century Plyboards (India) Limited CENTURYPLY | ₹666.45 | ₹201.01 | −70% |
| DeHua TB New Decoration Material Co 002043 | ¥12.02 | ¥15.06 | +25% |
| Canfor Corporation CFP | C$15.71 | C$4.54 | −71% |
| Interfor Corporation IFP | C$14.47 | C$6.43 | −56% |
| Greenlam Industries Limited GREENLAM | ₹212.85 | ₹48.51 | −77% |
| Guangxi Fenglin Wood Industry Group 601996 | ¥2.88 | ¥3.01 | +5% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Acadian Timber Corp (ACAZF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.33 versus a price of $11.95, about −22% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ACAZF?
Our model-based fair value for Acadian Timber Corp is $9.33 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.95.
What is the quality score of ACAZF?
Acadian Timber Corp has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Acadian Timber Corp (ACAZF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.33 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 19 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.51, optimistic scenario $9.33. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Acadian Timber Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.33, about −22% upside versus a price of $11.95 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.51, optimistic scenario $9.33. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Acadian Timber Corp (ACAZF)?
Acadian Timber Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$85.5M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Acadian Timber Corp pay a dividend?
Acadian Timber Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.71% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Acadian Timber Corp (ACAZF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Acadian Timber Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +49.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ACAZF use?
Our models discount Acadian Timber Corp at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.50, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Acadian Timber Corp that is +49.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Acadian Timber Corp (ACAZF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Acadian Timber Corp grew -0.9 % a year. The price currently implies +49.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Acadian Timber Corp (ACAZF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Acadian Timber Corp (+49.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Acadian Timber Corp (ACAZF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.17 %: that much free cash flow Acadian Timber Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Acadian Timber Corp (ACAZF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Acadian Timber Corp it is $9.33 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $11.95. It is the blended result of 19 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Acadian Timber Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ACAZF trades above its calculated fair value: price $11.95, fair value $9.33, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ACAZF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.33). For Acadian Timber Corp the two are $2.62 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Acadian Timber Corp worth?
The market values Acadian Timber Corp at about $217M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $11.95; our models calculate a fair value of $9.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ACAZF?
Our models span a range for Acadian Timber Corp: cautious scenario $8.51, base $9.33, optimistic $9.33 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $11.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ACAZF?
Acadian Timber Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $9.33 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 22.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Acadian Timber Corp (ACAZF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Acadian Timber Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 13.9%, debt of 0.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ACAZF from its 52-week high?
Acadian Timber Corp trades at $11.95, about 8% below its 52-week high of $12.94 and 24% above the low of $9.63 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Acadian Timber Corp?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Simpson Manufacturing Co, UFP Industries, Inc, Stella-Jones Inc, Boise Cascade Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Acadian Timber Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $11.95, calculated fair value $9.33 (−22%), Quality Score 48/100, from 19 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ACAZF calculated?
We run Acadian Timber Corp through 19 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $9.33, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Acadian Timber Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Acadian Timber Corp (ACAZF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $11.95. Our model-based fair value is $9.33, about −22% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Acadian Timber Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($9.33). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The models converge in a tight band ($8.51 to $9.33), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Where does the earnings growth of Acadian Timber Corp (ACAZF) come from?
Earnings per share at Acadian Timber Corp grew +3.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.8 %, EBIT margin −4.5 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +5.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Acadian Timber Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Acadian Timber Corp (ACAZF)?
The market capitalisation of Acadian Timber Corp is $217M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Acadian Timber Corp (ACAZF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Acadian Timber Corp is 3.51 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Acadian Timber Corp (ACAZF)?
Earnings per share at Acadian Timber Corp are $1.92 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Acadian Timber Corp (ACAZF)?
The dividend yield of Acadian Timber Corp is 9.7% (payout 60.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Acadian Timber Corp (ACAZF)?
The net margin of Acadian Timber Corp is 56.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Acadian Timber Corp (ACAZF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Acadian Timber Corp is 13.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Acadian Timber Corp (ACAZF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Acadian Timber Corp is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Acadian Timber Corp (ACAZF)?
The operating margin of Acadian Timber Corp is 18.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Acadian Timber Corp (ACAZF)?
Revenue at Acadian Timber Corp is growing −5.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Acadian Timber Corp (ACAZF)?
Earnings per share at Acadian Timber Corp are growing −8.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Acadian Timber Corp (ACAZF) carry?
The net debt of Acadian Timber Corp is C$106M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 29.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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