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Archer Aviation Inc (ACHR) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Archer Aviation Inc $2.02, price $5.71, upside -64.6%, quality 23 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · US · ISIN US03945R1023

AA Archer Aviation Inc logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Archer Aviation Inc

ACHR · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $2.02 · Strongly overvalued (−65%)
!Quality 23/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −69.7 %/yr)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/7)
!Narrow moat 13/100
!Insider activity 30/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$13.64 $1.63 Fair Value $2.02 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.63 – $13.64 · fair‑value band $1.34 – $2.53 · the $5.71 price screens above the $2.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Archer Aviation Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs and develops aircraft and related technologies and services for commercial and defense sectors in the United States and internationally. The company offers electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft for urban air taxi operations. Archer Aviation Inc. is based in San Jose, California.

Stock analysis

Archer Aviation Inc (ACHR) currently trades at $5.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.02, implying the stock looks roughly 182.2% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $1.34 (bear) to $2.53 (bull), the price of $5.71 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 23/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Archer Aviation Inc reported revenue of $300K in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$618M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $3.6B · EPS (TTM) $−1.10 · Return on equity −48.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −53.2% · Operating margin −15,763% · Free cash flow −$512M · Net cash $979M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −65%, ACHR screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.34 Fair Value $2.02 Bull $2.53
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $1.44 $1.93 $2.89 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.44 $1.93 $2.89 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 23/100

Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 18

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 75
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 5
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 36
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 7
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

ACHR screens 182% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

Compare Archer Aviation Inc with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 228 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −65% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −30% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.04× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.62× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)98 · sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 17

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Weapons Defense

Similar stocks

10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
General Electric Company GE $319.22 $92.68 −71%
RTX Corporation RTX $190.99 $88.37 −54%
Airbus SE AIR €194.60 €112.75 −42%
Safran SA SAF €332.00 €365.20 +10%
Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT $522.34 $440.05 −16%
Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM $225.36 $52.47 −77%
General Dynamics Corporation GD $343.39 $274.32 −20%
Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC $509.86 $383.06 −25%
TransDigm Group TDG $1,112 $1,224 +10%
L3Harris Technologies, Inc LHX $239.89 $263.88 +10%

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Archer Aviation Inc · Fair Value
$2.02 −182%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Archer Aviation Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ACHR

Frequently asked questions

Is Archer Aviation Inc (ACHR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.02 versus a price of $5.71, about −65% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ACHR?
Our model-based fair value for Archer Aviation Inc is $2.02 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.71.
What is the quality score of ACHR?
Archer Aviation Inc has a Quality Score of 23/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Archer Aviation Inc (ACHR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.02 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.34, optimistic scenario $2.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Archer Aviation Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.02, about −65% upside versus a price of $5.71 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.34, optimistic scenario $2.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Archer Aviation Inc (ACHR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Archer Aviation Inc it is $2.02 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $5.71. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Archer Aviation Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ACHR trades above its calculated fair value: price $5.71, fair value $2.02, a gap of about −65% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ACHR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.71); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.02). For Archer Aviation Inc the two are $3.69 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Archer Aviation Inc worth?
The market values Archer Aviation Inc at about $3.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $5.71; our models calculate a fair value of $2.02 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ACHR?
Our models span a range for Archer Aviation Inc: cautious scenario $1.34, base $2.02, optimistic $2.53 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $5.71). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Archer Aviation Inc (ACHR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Archer Aviation Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −48.1%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 23/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ACHR from its 52-week high?
Archer Aviation Inc trades at $5.71, about 58% below its 52-week high of $13.64 and 29% above the low of $4.44 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.02 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Archer Aviation Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Safran SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Archer Aviation Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $5.71, calculated fair value $2.02 (−65%), Quality Score 23/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ACHR calculated?
We run Archer Aviation Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.02, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Archer Aviation Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Archer Aviation Inc (ACHR)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $5.71. Our model-based fair value is $2.02, about −65% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Archer Aviation Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.53). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (23/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($1.34 to $2.53) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Archer Aviation Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Archer Aviation Inc (ACHR)?
The market capitalisation of Archer Aviation Inc is $3.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Archer Aviation Inc (ACHR)?
Earnings per share at Archer Aviation Inc are $−1.10. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Archer Aviation Inc (ACHR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Archer Aviation Inc is −48.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Archer Aviation Inc (ACHR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Archer Aviation Inc is −53.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Archer Aviation Inc (ACHR)?
The operating margin of Archer Aviation Inc is −15,763% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much free cash flow does Archer Aviation Inc (ACHR) generate?
The free cash flow of Archer Aviation Inc is −$512M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Archer Aviation Inc (ACHR) hold?
Archer Aviation Inc holds more cash than debt, $979M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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