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Accor SA (ACRFF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Accor SA $46.45, price $48.95, upside -5.1%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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AS
Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Accor SA
ACRFF · USNeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value $46.45 · Fairly valued (−5.1%)
!Quality 54/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +28.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 8.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓2.8% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Moderate moat 50/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $16.55 – $59.55 · fair‑value band $27.72 – $58.84 · the $48.95 price screens above the $46.45 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
Accor SA operates a chain of hotels worldwide. The company operates through Premium, Midscale and Economy; and Luxury & Lifestyle segments.
Show more
Accor SA operates a chain of hotels worldwide. The company operates through Premium, Midscale and Economy; and Luxury & Lifestyle segments. Its Premium, Midscale and Economy segment includes the Ibis, Novotel, Mercure, Swissôtel, Mövenpick, and Pullman brands operating in Europe and North Africa, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, the Americas, and China. The company Luxury & Lifestyle segment includes the Raffles and Fairmont, Sofitel, MGallery and Emblems, and Ennismore brands. It also owns, leases, manages, and franchises hotels. In addition, the company provides discount card programs; catering and event management; digital, hotel booking, and concierge services; and other services in events, fine dining, and entertainment, as well as operation of performance venues and coworking spaces. Further, it offers hotel management, personnel, procurement, treasury and management, IT, advertising, and other advice services. Accor SA was incorporated in 1960 and is headquartered in Issy-les-Moulineaux, France.
Stock analysis
Accor SA (ACRFF) currently trades at $48.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $46.45, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 5.4%).
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $46.35 per share, and 8 of the 26 models we run sit above the $48.95 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $13.69, and 18 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $27.72 (bear) to $58.84 (bull), the price of $48.95 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Accor SA reported revenue of €5.6B in FY2025 versus €2.2B in FY2021, a compound +26.5%/yr. Reported net income was €449M in FY2025, compounding +73.1%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $13.7B · P/E ratio 26.2 · P/S ratio 2.08 · EPS (TTM) $1.87 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 8.0% · Return on equity 9.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −5%, ACRFF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $27.72
Fair Value $46.45
Bull $58.84
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3932 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$32.01
$56.59
$94.98
78
Growth DCF
$32.55
$53.98
$85.21
77
Residual Income
$18.31
$20.41
$25.19
76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$32.01
$56.59
$94.98
78
Owner Earnings
$30.29
$53.84
$90.61
74
5Y Revenue Exit
$19.23
$33.91
$52.43
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
$35.28
$64.45
$98.83
74
5Y P/E Exit
$25.77
$46.35
$68.10
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$22.72
$37.37
$56.85
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$33.72
$58.77
$92.83
67
10Y P/E Exit
$27.62
$46.09
$69.00
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$14.55
$49.08
$65.78
64
Lynch FV
$11.20
$16.01
$20.81
61
PEG = 1.0
$11.20
$16.01
$20.81
57
EPV
$23.49
$28.93
$33.68
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$14.31
$29.76
$47.21
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$14.31
$24.57
$31.24
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$35.31
$47.08
$58.84
63
P/S Multiple
$24.19
$32.25
$40.31
58
P/B Multiple
$27.28
$36.38
$45.47
55
EV/EBIT
$46.88
$65.55
$84.21
66
EV/EBITDA
$42.38
$59.54
$76.70
67
EV/Revenue
$13.46
$23.14
$32.81
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$10.21
$13.69
$20.43
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$32.55
$53.98
$85.21
77
Rev-Margin DCF
$19.23
$34.19
$51.89
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$18.31
$20.41
$25.19
76
ROIC Compounder
$24.40
$33.86
$46.12
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$29.88
$42.68
$55.49
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
54/100
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Profitability
39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
46
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
66
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
45
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
97
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
35
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
51
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
79
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
32
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.2% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13.1% vs 12.9%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−136% → 15%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.5%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.3% a year for the price and +3.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+3.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+6.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+6.2%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.0%
Watch ACRFF, get fair value alerts →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- GET READY WITH KATSEYE x ALL ACCOR - FROM THE MIRROR TO THE STAGE : WHEN THE HOTEL BECOMES THE STARTING POINT OF THE CONCERT
- Accor SA (ACCYY) (H1 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Resilient Growth Amid Geopolitical Headwinds
- American Express (AXP) Expands Accor Rewards And Paymode B2B Partnerships
- American Express and ALL Accor Expand the Power of Membership with New Global Partnership
Compare Accor SA with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lodging · 160 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Discretionary sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Lodging stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marriott International, Inc MAR | $355.67 | $152.36 | −57% |
| Hilton Worldwide Holdings HLT | $320.28 | $270.90 | −15% |
| InterContinental Hotels Group IHG | $161.11 | $99.86 | −38% |
| Hyatt Hotels Corporation H | $158.48 | $48.73 | −69% |
| H World Group HTHT | $43.14 | $61.97 | +44% |
| The Indian Hotels Company INDHOTEL | ₹726.80 | ₹494.26 | −32% |
| Jabal Omar Development Company 4250 | 17.17 SAR | 17.95 SAR | +5% |
| Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc WH | $69.99 | $30.01 | −57% |
| Choice Hotels International, Inc CHH | $101.81 | $73.63 | −28% |
| Atour Lifestyle Holdings ATAT | $32.23 | $58.38 | +81% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Accor SA (ACRFF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $46.45 versus a price of $48.95, about −5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ACRFF?
Our model-based fair value for Accor SA is $46.45 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $48.95.
What is the quality score of ACRFF?
Accor SA has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Accor SA (ACRFF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $46.45 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $27.72, optimistic scenario $58.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Accor SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $46.45, about −5% upside versus a price of $48.95 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $27.72, optimistic scenario $58.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Accor SA (ACRFF)?
Accor SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €5.6B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Accor SA pay a dividend?
Accor SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.76% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Accor SA (ACRFF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Accor SA would have to grow free cash flow by +10.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +28.3 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ACRFF use?
Our models discount Accor SA at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.88, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Accor SA that is +10.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Accor SA (ACRFF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Accor SA grew +28.3 % a year. The price currently implies +10.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Accor SA (ACRFF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Accor SA (+10.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Accor SA (ACRFF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.06 %: that much free cash flow Accor SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Accor SA (ACRFF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Accor SA it is $46.45 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $48.95. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Accor SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, ACRFF trades above its calculated fair value: price $48.95, fair value $46.45, a gap of about −5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ACRFF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($48.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($46.45). For Accor SA the two are $2.50 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Accor SA worth?
The market values Accor SA at about $13.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $48.95; our models calculate a fair value of $46.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ACRFF?
Our models span a range for Accor SA: cautious scenario $27.72, base $46.45, optimistic $58.84 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $48.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ACRFF?
Accor SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.2 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $46.45 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 3.2, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 14.4.
What is the PEG ratio of ACRFF?
The PEG ratio of Accor SA is 1.34 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Accor SA (ACRFF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Accor SA (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 9.8%, debt of 0.73 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ACRFF from its 52-week high?
Accor SA trades at $48.95, about 18% below its 52-week high of $59.55 and 9% above the low of $45.05 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $46.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Accor SA?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Marriott International, Inc, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, InterContinental Hotels Group, Hyatt Hotels Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Accor SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $48.95, calculated fair value $46.45 (−5%), Quality Score 54/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ACRFF calculated?
We run Accor SA through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $46.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Accor SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Accor SA (ACRFF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $48.95. Our model-based fair value is $46.45, about −5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Accor SA right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($27.72 to $58.84) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Accor SA (ACRFF) come from?
Earnings per share at Accor SA grew +14.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.5 %, EBIT margin −1.1 %, tax rate +2.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +6.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Accor SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Accor SA (ACRFF)?
The market capitalisation of Accor SA is $13.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Accor SA (ACRFF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Accor SA is 2.08 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Accor SA (ACRFF)?
Earnings per share at Accor SA are $1.87 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Accor SA (ACRFF)?
The dividend yield of Accor SA is 2.8% (payout 72.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Accor SA (ACRFF)?
The net margin of Accor SA is 8.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Accor SA (ACRFF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Accor SA is 9.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Accor SA (ACRFF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Accor SA is 5.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Accor SA (ACRFF)?
The operating margin of Accor SA is 16.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Accor SA (ACRFF)?
Revenue at Accor SA is growing −1.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Accor SA (ACRFF)?
Earnings per share at Accor SA are growing −43.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Accor SA (ACRFF) carry?
The net debt of Accor SA is €3.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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