Adcon Capital Services Ltd (ADCON) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Adcon Capital Services Ltd ₹1.08, price ₹0.52, upside +107.7%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹0.2996 – ₹5.79 · fair‑value band ₹0.6660 – ₹1.72 · the ₹0.5200 price screens below the ₹1.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Adcon Capital Services Limited operates as a non-banking financial company that provides loans and advances in India. It invests in shares of other companies; and provides capital market, corporate financing, trading, project and management consultancy services of financing, etc. The company was incorporated in 1994 and is based in Mumbai, India.
Stock analysis
Adcon Capital Services Ltd (ADCON) currently trades at ₹0.5200, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹1.08, implying the stock looks roughly 51.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 6 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: ₹0.6660 (bear) to ₹1.72 (bull), the price of ₹0.5200 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Adcon Capital Services Ltd reported revenue of ₹45.8M in FY2026 versus ₹6.9M in FY2022, a compound +60.6%/yr. Reported net income was −₹21.3M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap ₹172M (≈ $1.8M) · EPS (TTM) ₹−0.0900 · Net margin −46.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.1% · Free cash flow ₹38.9M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 108%, ADCON screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹0.6660Fair Value ₹1.08Bull ₹1.72
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+104.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+101.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+74.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+50.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
34.0% (2020) → −62.1% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−14.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −17.4% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Credit Services · 326 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Adcon Capital Services Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ADCON
Frequently asked questions
Is Adcon Capital Services Ltd (ADCON) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹1.08 versus a price of ₹0.5200, about +108% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ADCON?
Our model-based fair value for Adcon Capital Services Ltd is ₹1.08 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹0.5200.
What is the quality score of ADCON?
Adcon Capital Services Ltd has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Adcon Capital Services Ltd (ADCON)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹1.08 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹0.6660, optimistic scenario ₹1.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Adcon Capital Services Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹1.08, about +108% upside versus a price of ₹0.5200 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ₹0.6660, optimistic scenario ₹1.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Adcon Capital Services Ltd (ADCON)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Adcon Capital Services Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -14.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +74.4 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ADCON use?
Our models discount Adcon Capital Services Ltd at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Adcon Capital Services Ltd that is -14.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Adcon Capital Services Ltd (ADCON) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Adcon Capital Services Ltd grew +74.4 % a year. The price currently implies -14.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Adcon Capital Services Ltd (ADCON) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Adcon Capital Services Ltd (-14.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Adcon Capital Services Ltd (ADCON)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 22.57 %: that much free cash flow Adcon Capital Services Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Adcon Capital Services Ltd (ADCON)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Adcon Capital Services Ltd it is ₹1.08 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of ₹0.5200. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Adcon Capital Services Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, ADCON trades below its calculated fair value: price ₹0.5200, fair value ₹1.08, a gap of about +108% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ADCON?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹0.5200); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹1.08). For Adcon Capital Services Ltd the two are ₹0.5600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Adcon Capital Services Ltd worth?
The market values Adcon Capital Services Ltd at about ₹172M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is ₹0.5200; our models calculate a fair value of ₹1.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ADCON?
Our models span a range for Adcon Capital Services Ltd: cautious scenario ₹0.6660, base ₹1.08, optimistic ₹1.72 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price ₹0.5200). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is ADCON from its 52-week high?
Adcon Capital Services Ltd trades at ₹0.5200, about 46% below its 52-week high of ₹0.9600 and 27% above the low of ₹0.4100 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹1.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Adcon Capital Services Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, Mastercard Incorporated, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Adcon Capital Services Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price ₹0.5200, calculated fair value ₹1.08 (+108%), Quality Score 59/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ADCON calculated?
We run Adcon Capital Services Ltd through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹1.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Adcon Capital Services Ltd currently trades 52 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Adcon Capital Services Ltd (ADCON)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹0.5200. Our model-based fair value is ₹1.08, about +108% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Adcon Capital Services Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (₹0.6660). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (₹0.6660 to ₹1.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Adcon Capital Services Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Adcon Capital Services Ltd (ADCON)?
The market capitalisation of Adcon Capital Services Ltd is ₹172M (≈ $1.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Adcon Capital Services Ltd (ADCON)?
Earnings per share at Adcon Capital Services Ltd are ₹−0.0900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Adcon Capital Services Ltd (ADCON)?
The net margin of Adcon Capital Services Ltd is −46.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Adcon Capital Services Ltd (ADCON)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Adcon Capital Services Ltd is 2.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
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