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Adecoagro S.A (ADGO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Adecoagro S.A ARS 14,886, price ARS 16,510, upside -9.8%, quality 15 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Consumer Defensive · AR · ISIN LU0584671464

AS Some data Sep 24, 2026

Adecoagro S.A

ADGO · BA

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value 14,886 ARS · Overvalued (−9.8%)
!Quality 15/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y +1.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 20/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

24,143 ARS 1,571 ARS Fair Value 14,886 ARS Mar 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 1,571 ARS – 24,143 ARS · fair‑value band 7,352 ARS – 14,886 ARS · the 16,510 ARS price screens above the 14,886 ARS fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Adecoagro S.A., engages in agricultural and agro-industrial activities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. The company operates through three segments: Sugar, Ethanol and Energy, Fertilizers and Farming.

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Adecoagro S.A., engages in agricultural and agro-industrial activities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. The company operates through three segments: Sugar, Ethanol and Energy, Fertilizers and Farming. The company is involved in the production of a range of agricultural commodities, including soybean, corn, wheat, peanut, sunflower, cotton, and others; planting, harvesting, processing, and marketing of white, brown, and rough rice; genetic development of seeds; and production of dairy products, such as raw milk, ultra-high temperature milk, powdered milk, semi-hard cheese, cream, cream and cocoa flavored milk, chocolate and fluid milk, and other dairy products. It also generates electricity through burning biogas extracted from effluents produced by its dairy cattle; and provides grain warehousing and conditioning, and handling and drying services. In addition, the company cultivates andharvests sugarcane to produce ethanol, sugar, and bioelectricity; and sells carbon credits. Further, it engages in land transformation activities, such as the acquisition of farmlands or businesses with underdeveloped or underutilized agricultural land; and the implementation of production technology and agricultural practices. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. As of May 1, 2025, Adecoagro S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Tether Investments, S.A. De C.V.

Stock analysis

Adecoagro S.A (ADGO) currently trades at 16,510 ARS, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 14,886 ARS, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 10.9%).

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 11,715 ARS per share, and 2 of the 10 models we run sit above the 16,510 ARS price.

Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at 3,996 ARS, and 8 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: 7,352 ARS (bear) to 14,886 ARS (bull), the price of 16,510 ARS sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 15/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.

Adecoagro S.A reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$8.3M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 2.6T ARS (≈ $1.7B) · P/E ratio 631.1 · EPS (TTM) 26.16 ARS · Net margin −0.6% · Return on equity 1.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.6% · Operating margin 0.4% · Revenue (TTM) $1.5B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −10%, ADGO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (378.68 ARS to 35,870 ARS). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear 7,352 ARS Fair Value 14,886 ARS Bull 14,886 ARS
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (19.78 ARS per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
5Y EBITDA Exit 11,454 ARS 23,628 ARS 40,219 ARS 69
Growth DCF 1,233 ARS 4,181 ARS 9,149 ARS 68
FCF DCF 916.33 ARS 3,996 ARS 9,672 ARS 67
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 916.33 ARS 3,996 ARS 9,672 ARS 67
5Y Revenue Exit n/a 378.68 ARS >1,515 ARS 66
5Y EBITDA Exit 11,454 ARS 23,628 ARS 40,219 ARS 69
10Y Revenue Exit n/a 1,199 ARS 3,649 ARS 61
10Y EBITDA Exit 6,731 ARS 15,065 ARS 24,517 ARS 63
Multiples
EV/EBIT n/a 1,401 ARS 4,383 ARS 61
EV/EBITDA 24,270 ARS 35,870 ARS 47,469 ARS 66
EV/Revenue n/a n/a 1,330 ARS 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 8,742 ARS 11,715 ARS 17,484 ARS 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 1,233 ARS 4,181 ARS 9,149 ARS 68
Rev-Margin DCF n/a 672.10 ARS >2,688 ARS 66

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 15/100

Of which business quality 21 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63

Profitability 13
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 7
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 34
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 44
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 15
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 59
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 64
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 64
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 35/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
25.9% (2021) → 4.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+60.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +56.3% a year for the price and −0.3% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+63.5%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−11.9%
Projected 2028 (sales)−10.2%
Projected 2029 (sales)−8.4%
Projected 2030 (sales)−6.7%

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Values & ESG

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Adecoagro S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ADGO

Frequently asked questions

Is Adecoagro S.A (ADGO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 14,886 ARS versus a price of 16,510 ARS, about −10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ADGO?
Our model-based fair value for Adecoagro S.A is 14,886 ARS (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 16,510 ARS.
What is the quality score of ADGO?
Adecoagro S.A has a Quality Score of 15/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Adecoagro S.A (ADGO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 14,886 ARS (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario 7,352 ARS, optimistic scenario 14,886 ARS. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Adecoagro S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 14,886 ARS, about −10% upside versus a price of 16,510 ARS (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 7,352 ARS, optimistic scenario 14,886 ARS. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Adecoagro S.A (ADGO)?
Adecoagro S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Adecoagro S.A (ADGO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Adecoagro S.A would have to grow free cash flow by +60.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 20.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +6.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ADGO use?
Our models discount Adecoagro S.A at 20.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Argentina. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Adecoagro S.A that is +60.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (20.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Adecoagro S.A (ADGO) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Adecoagro S.A grew +6.2 % a year. The price currently implies +60.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Adecoagro S.A (ADGO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Adecoagro S.A (+60.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Adecoagro S.A (ADGO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.73 %: that much free cash flow Adecoagro S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (20.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Adecoagro S.A (ADGO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Adecoagro S.A it is 14,886 ARS per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 16,510 ARS. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Adecoagro S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ADGO trades above its calculated fair value: price 16,510 ARS, fair value 14,886 ARS, a gap of about −10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ADGO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (16,510 ARS); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (14,886 ARS). For Adecoagro S.A the two are 1,624 ARS per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Adecoagro S.A worth?
The market values Adecoagro S.A at about 2.6T ARS (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 16,510 ARS; our models calculate a fair value of 14,886 ARS per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ADGO?
Our models span a range for Adecoagro S.A: cautious scenario 7,352 ARS, base 14,886 ARS, optimistic 14,886 ARS per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 16,510 ARS). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is ADGO from its 52-week high?
Adecoagro S.A trades at 16,510 ARS, about 27% below its 52-week high of 22,670 ARS and 55% above the low of 10,664 ARS (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 14,886 ARS is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Adecoagro S.A?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Muyuan Foods Group, Bunge Global SA, Tyson Foods, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Adecoagro S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 16,510 ARS, calculated fair value 14,886 ARS (−10%), Quality Score 15/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ADGO calculated?
We run Adecoagro S.A through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 14,886 ARS, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Adecoagro S.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Adecoagro S.A (ADGO)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 16,510 ARS. Our model-based fair value is 14,886 ARS, about −10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Adecoagro S.A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (14,886 ARS). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (7,352 ARS to 14,886 ARS) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Adecoagro S.A

How large is the market capitalisation of Adecoagro S.A (ADGO)?
The market capitalisation of Adecoagro S.A is 2.6T ARS (≈ $1.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Adecoagro S.A (ADGO)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Adecoagro S.A is 631.1. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What are the earnings per share of Adecoagro S.A (ADGO)?
Earnings per share at Adecoagro S.A are 26.16 ARS (price ÷ EPS = P/E 631.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Adecoagro S.A (ADGO)?
The net margin of Adecoagro S.A is −0.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Adecoagro S.A (ADGO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Adecoagro S.A is 1.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Adecoagro S.A (ADGO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Adecoagro S.A is 6.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Adecoagro S.A (ADGO)?
The operating margin of Adecoagro S.A is 0.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Adecoagro S.A (ADGO)?
Revenue at Adecoagro S.A is growing +22.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Adecoagro S.A (ADGO)?
Earnings per share at Adecoagro S.A are growing +55.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Adecoagro S.A (ADGO) carry?
The net debt of Adecoagro S.A is $1.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 28.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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