Autodesk, Inc (ADSK) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $46.1B
Autodesk, Inc
ADSK · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price +14.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 56% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($133.08). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $164.31 – $342.27 · fair‑value band $79.85 – $133.08 · the $242.47 price screens above the $106.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Autodesk, Inc (ADSK) currently trades at $242.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $106.47, implying the stock looks roughly 56.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Autodesk, Inc generated revenue of $7.5B at a net margin of 19.5%. Revenue grew 18.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 50.4%. Net debt stands at $485M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $79.85 (bear case) to $133.08 (bull case); at $242.47, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -56%, ADSK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($158.07) versus Asset-Based ($9.66). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Autodesk, Inc. engages in the provision of 3D design, engineering, and entertainment technology solutions worldwide. The company offers AutoCAD Civil 3D, a surveying, design, analysis, and documentation solution; Autodesk Build, a toolset for managing, sharing, and accessing project documents for streamlined workflows between the office, trailer, and …
Full company description
Autodesk, Inc. engages in the provision of 3D design, engineering, and entertainment technology solutions worldwide. The company offers AutoCAD Civil 3D, a surveying, design, analysis, and documentation solution; Autodesk Build, a toolset for managing, sharing, and accessing project documents for streamlined workflows between the office, trailer, and jobsite; Revit, a software built for building information modeling to help professionals design, build, and maintain energy-efficient buildings; Autodesk BIM Collaborate Pro, cloud-based design collaboration and design management software; BuildingConnected, a SaaS preconstruction solution; and Tandem, a cloud-based platform that transforms the built asset lifecycle. It also provides AutoCAD software, a customizable and extensible CAD application for professional design, drafting, detailing, and visualization; AutoCAD LT, a drafting and detailing software; Fusion, a 3D CAD, computer-aided manufacturing, and computer-aided engineering tool; Inventor, a software solution that offers a set of tools for 3D mechanical design, simulation, analysis, tooling, visualization, and documentation; product design and manufacturing collection tools; and Vault, a data management software for managing data in one central location, accelerate design processes, and streamline internal/external collaboration. The company offers Flow Production Tracking, a cloud-based production management software; Maya software that offers 3D modeling, animation, effects, rendering, and compositing solutions for film and video artists, game developers, and design visualization professionals; Media and Entertainment Collection that offers end-to-end creative tools for entertainment creation; and 3ds Max software, which provides 3D modeling, animation, and rendering solutions. It sells its products and services through a network of resellers and distributors. Autodesk, Inc. was incorporated in 1982 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Autodesk, Inc reported revenue of $7.2B in FY2026 versus $4.4B in FY2022, a compound +13.2%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2026, compounding +22.6%/yr from FY2022.
ADSK screens 56% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Autodesk and the University of Florida open the most advanced robotics industrialized construction lab in the U.S. to tackle housing and lab
- Autodesk (ADSK): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q1 Earnings?
- Intuit, BILL, Workiva, Elastic, and Autodesk Stocks Trade Up, What You Need To Know
- Autodesk extends invitation to join financial results conference call
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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