Adtraction Group AB (ADTR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Adtraction Group AB SEK 59.05, price SEK 39.70, upside +48.7%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
58‑month range kr 24.65 – kr 58.21 · fair‑value band kr 42.00 – kr 79.37 · the kr 39.70 price screens below the kr 59.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Adtraction Group AB provides advertising services in Europe. It develops and operates a platform, which connects advertisers with various partners, such as digital magazines, influencers, bloggers, forums, mobile apps, and price comparison sites. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Adtraction Group AB (ADTR) currently trades at kr 39.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 59.05, implying the stock looks roughly 32.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of kr 61.42 per share, and 10 of the 11 models we run sit above the kr 39.70 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 8.49, and 1 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: kr 42.00 (bear) to kr 79.37 (bull), the price of kr 39.70 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Adtraction Group AB reported revenue of 1.2B SEK in FY2025 versus 698M SEK in FY2021, a compound +14.2%/yr. Reported net income was −19.9M SEK in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 659M SEK (≈ $66.4M) · P/S ratio 0.56 · EPS (TTM) kr −0.9400 · Dividend yield 5.5% · Net margin −1.7% · Return on equity −7.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8% · Operating margin −0.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 20% fair-value upside, at 49%, ADTR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 42.00Fair Value kr 59.05Bull kr 79.37
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.56/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
’18
’19
’20
’21
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’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
4.4% (2020) → −1.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.4% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Advertising Agencies · 197 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside+48% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.5% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Advertising Agencies median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Adtraction Group AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ADTR
Frequently asked questions
Is Adtraction Group AB (ADTR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 59.05 versus a price of kr 39.70, about +49% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ADTR?
Our model-based fair value for Adtraction Group AB is kr 59.05 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 39.70.
What is the quality score of ADTR?
Adtraction Group AB has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Adtraction Group AB (ADTR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 59.05 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 42.00, optimistic scenario kr 79.37. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Adtraction Group AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 59.05, about +49% upside versus a price of kr 39.70 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 42.00, optimistic scenario kr 79.37. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Adtraction Group AB (ADTR)?
Adtraction Group AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.2B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Adtraction Group AB pay a dividend?
Adtraction Group AB currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.54% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Adtraction Group AB (ADTR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Adtraction Group AB would have to grow free cash flow by -1.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ADTR use?
Our models discount Adtraction Group AB at 12.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.14, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Adtraction Group AB that is -1.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Adtraction Group AB (ADTR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Adtraction Group AB grew +16.8 % a year. The price currently implies -1.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Adtraction Group AB (ADTR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Adtraction Group AB (-1.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Adtraction Group AB (ADTR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.42 %: that much free cash flow Adtraction Group AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Adtraction Group AB (ADTR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Adtraction Group AB it is kr 59.05 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 39.70. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Adtraction Group AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ADTR trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 39.70, fair value kr 59.05, a gap of about +49% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ADTR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 39.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 59.05). For Adtraction Group AB the two are kr 19.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Adtraction Group AB worth?
The market values Adtraction Group AB at about 659M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 39.70; our models calculate a fair value of kr 59.05 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ADTR?
Our models span a range for Adtraction Group AB: cautious scenario kr 42.00, base kr 59.05, optimistic kr 79.37 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 39.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Adtraction Group AB (ADTR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Adtraction Group AB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −7.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ADTR from its 52-week high?
Adtraction Group AB trades at kr 39.70, about 7% below its 52-week high of kr 42.60 and 61% above the low of kr 24.65 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 59.05 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Adtraction Group AB?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value AppLovin Corporation, Publicis Groupe S.A, Omnicom Group, Focus Media Information Technology Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Adtraction Group AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 39.70, calculated fair value kr 59.05 (+49%), Quality Score 52/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ADTR calculated?
We run Adtraction Group AB through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 59.05, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Adtraction Group AB currently trades 49 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Adtraction Group AB (ADTR)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was kr 39.70. Our model-based fair value is kr 59.05, about +49% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Adtraction Group AB right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 42.00). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (kr 42.00 to kr 79.37) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Adtraction Group AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Adtraction Group AB (ADTR)?
The market capitalisation of Adtraction Group AB is 659M SEK (≈ $66.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Adtraction Group AB (ADTR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Adtraction Group AB is 0.56 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Adtraction Group AB (ADTR)?
Earnings per share at Adtraction Group AB are kr −0.9400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Adtraction Group AB (ADTR)?
The dividend yield of Adtraction Group AB is 5.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Adtraction Group AB (ADTR)?
The net margin of Adtraction Group AB is −1.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Adtraction Group AB (ADTR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Adtraction Group AB is −7.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Adtraction Group AB (ADTR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Adtraction Group AB is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Adtraction Group AB (ADTR)?
The operating margin of Adtraction Group AB is −0.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Adtraction Group AB (ADTR)?
Revenue at Adtraction Group AB is growing +11.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Adtraction Group AB (ADTR)?
Earnings per share at Adtraction Group AB are growing −60.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Adtraction Group AB (ADTR) hold?
Adtraction Group AB holds more cash than debt, 124M SEK net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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