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Advantage Solutions Inc (ADV) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Advantage Solutions Inc stock $11.74, price $31.57, that is 62.8% below the price, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 5 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Communication Services US

AS Advantage Solutions Inc logo Some data Nov 7, 2026

Advantage Solutions Inc

ADV · US
Solid, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 63% below what the stock costs today.

Generates free cash flow
Upbeat coverage
Quality 51/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +2.3 %/yr in USD)
Insiders bought $55,360 (6M)
Some data
Fair value $11.74 · Strongly overvalued (−62.8%)
Loss-making · -8.9% net margin (TTM) · excl. goodwill write-downs -7.9%
High debt
Trails peers (3/11)
Narrow moat 12/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$249.75 $12.55 Fair Value $11.74 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $12.55 – $249.75 · fair‑value band $11.74 – $38.12 · the $31.57 price screens above the $11.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 7, 2026.

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Company profile

Advantage Solutions Inc. provides outsourced sales, marketing, merchandising, sampling, and retailer support services to consumer packaged goods manufacturers and retailers in North America, Asia Pacific, and Europe.

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It operates in three segments: Branded Services, Experiential Services, and Retailer Services.

The Branded Services segment delivers sales, merchandising, and omni-commerce marketing support to branded consumer packaged goods manufacturers, including brokerage services, branded merchandising, and shopper-centric marketing programs across in-store and digital platforms.

The Experiential Services segment provides in-store and digital sampling programs, demonstrations, and experiential events designed to drive trial, conversion, and sustained consumer engagement.

The Retailer Services segment offers solutions supporting retailers in in-store merchandising execution, private brand strategy and development, retail media, and marketing initiatives, including reset services, category updates, space management, audits, retailer merchandising, advisory services, and agency services for print and digital circulars and targeted advertising.

The company serves a diverse client base across grocery, mass, club, retail pharmacy, convenience, and other channels in retail locations. The company was formerly known as Karman Holding Corp. and changed its name to Advantage Solutions Inc. in March 2016.

The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.

Stock analysis

Advantage Solutions Inc (ADV) currently trades at $31.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.74, 63% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $37.91 per share, and 3 of the 5 models we run sit above the $31.57 price.

Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $10.85, and 2 of the 5 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $11.74 (bear) to $38.12 (bull), the price of $31.57 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Advantage Solutions Inc reported revenue of $3.5B in FY2025 versus $3.6B in FY2021, a compound −0.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$228M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $408M Small · P/S ratio 0.11 · EPS (TTM) $−24.84 · Net margin −8.9% · Return on equity −59.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −7.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin 1.8% · Revenue (TTM) $3.6B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 152% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −63%, ADV screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $11.74 Fair Value $11.74 Bull $38.12
Price $31.57 · Downside -62.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF n/a $11.74 $38.12 77
Growth DCF n/a $10.85 $34.07 75
EV/EBITDA $34.08 $39.50 $44.92 67
All 5 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF n/a $11.74 $38.12 77
Multiples
EV/EBIT $32.89 $37.91 $42.93 66
EV/EBITDA $34.08 $39.50 $44.92 67
EV/Revenue $29.25 $34.14 $39.04 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF n/a $10.85 $34.07 75

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 26
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 66
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 44
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 10
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 34
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 46
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 85
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $55,360, on May 19, 2026.

  • BuyDavid A PeacockChief Executive Officer, Director2× since Mar 5, 2026: 201,600 shares, avg. $0.9095$183,360May 19, 2026
  • BuyJames M KiltsDirector3× since Mar 9, 2026: 223,179 shares, avg. $0.6928$154,625Mar 23, 2026
  • BuyChristopher GroweChief Financial Officer50,000 shares at $0.6000$30,000Mar 6, 2026

Plus 12 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 28/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.5% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2.1% (2020) → 0.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+29.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +26.3% a year for the price.

ADV screens overvalued: fair value 63% below the price. Compare with AppLovin Corporation →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (88 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Advertising Agencies · 170 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside −62.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −8.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −8.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 1.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −0.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 3.00× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Advertising Agencies median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.74× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months) 0.11× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 7.4× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 6.2× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Advertising Agencies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
The Trade Desk, Inc TTD $12.93 $38.79 +200% vs ADV
Publicis Groupe S.A PUB €102.95 €145.63 +41% vs ADV
Omnicom Group OMC $86.37 $113.06 +31% vs ADV
AppLovin Corporation APP $391.22 $430.34 +10% vs ADV
Focus Media Information Technology Co 002027 ¥5.55 ¥6.11 +10% vs ADV
Magnite, Inc MGNI $27.39 $30.13 +10% vs ADV
JCDecaux SE DEC €26.66 €20.99 −21% vs ADV
Easy Click Worldwide Network Technology Co 301171 ¥34.54 ¥11.05 −68% vs ADV
Leo Group 002131 ¥4.26 ¥1.06 −75% vs ADV
Stagwell Inc STGW $11.64 $2.62 −77% vs ADV

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Advantage Solutions Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ADV

Frequently asked questions

Is Advantage Solutions Inc (ADV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.74 versus a price of $31.57, about 63% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ADV?
Our model-based fair value for Advantage Solutions Inc is $11.74 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $31.57.
What is the quality score of ADV?
Advantage Solutions Inc has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Advantage Solutions Inc (ADV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.74 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.74, optimistic scenario $38.12. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Advantage Solutions Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.74, about 63% lower versus a price of $31.57 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.74, optimistic scenario $38.12. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Advantage Solutions Inc (ADV)?
Advantage Solutions Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Advantage Solutions Inc (ADV)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Advantage Solutions Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +29.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.3 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ADV use?
Our models discount Advantage Solutions Inc at 13.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 2.21, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Advantage Solutions Inc that is +29.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Advantage Solutions Inc (ADV) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Advantage Solutions Inc grew +2.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +29.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Advantage Solutions Inc (ADV) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Advantage Solutions Inc (+29.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Advantage Solutions Inc (ADV)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.50 %: that much free cash flow Advantage Solutions Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Advantage Solutions Inc (ADV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Advantage Solutions Inc it is $11.74 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $31.57. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models in 3 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Growth DCF).
Is Advantage Solutions Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, ADV trades above its calculated fair value: price $31.57, fair value $11.74, a gap of about −63% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ADV?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($31.57); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.74). For Advantage Solutions Inc the two are $19.83 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Advantage Solutions Inc worth?
The market values Advantage Solutions Inc at about $408M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $31.57; our models calculate a fair value of $11.74 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ADV?
Our models span a range for Advantage Solutions Inc: cautious scenario $11.74, base $11.74, optimistic $38.12 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $31.57). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Advantage Solutions Inc (ADV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Advantage Solutions Inc (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity −59.0%, debt of 3.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ADV from its 52-week high?
Advantage Solutions Inc trades at $31.57, about 33% below its 52-week high of $46.82 and 152% above the low of $12.55 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.74 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Advantage Solutions Inc?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value AppLovin Corporation, Publicis Groupe S.A, Omnicom Group, Focus Media Information Technology Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Advantage Solutions Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $31.57, calculated fair value $11.74 (−63%), Quality Score 51/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ADV calculated?
We run Advantage Solutions Inc through 5 models from 3 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $11.74 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Advantage Solutions Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Advantage Solutions Inc (ADV)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $31.57. Our model-based fair value is $11.74, about 63% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Advantage Solutions Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($11.74 to $38.12). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Advantage Solutions Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Advantage Solutions Inc (ADV)?
The market capitalisation of Advantage Solutions Inc is $408M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Advantage Solutions Inc (ADV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Advantage Solutions Inc is 0.11 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Advantage Solutions Inc (ADV)?
Earnings per share at Advantage Solutions Inc are $−24.84. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Advantage Solutions Inc (ADV)?
The net margin of Advantage Solutions Inc is −8.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Advantage Solutions Inc (ADV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Advantage Solutions Inc is −59.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Advantage Solutions Inc (ADV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Advantage Solutions Inc is −7.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Advantage Solutions Inc (ADV)?
The operating margin of Advantage Solutions Inc is 1.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Advantage Solutions Inc (ADV)?
Revenue at Advantage Solutions Inc is growing −0.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Advantage Solutions Inc (ADV)?
Earnings per share at Advantage Solutions Inc are growing −5.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Advantage Solutions Inc (ADV) hold?
Advantage Solutions Inc holds more cash than debt, $228M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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