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Andrew Peller Limited (ADW-B) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Andrew Peller Limited is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 13, 2026
Andrew Peller Limited
ADW-B · TOWeak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.
!Fair value C$10.64 · Overvalued (−11%)
!Quality 50/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·2.05% dividend yield
!Narrow moat 42/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$4.11 – C$15.16 · fair‑value band C$7.41 – C$13.84 · the C$12.00 price screens above the C$10.64 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Company profile
Andrew Peller Limited produces and markets wines and craft beverage alcohol products in Canada.
Show more
Andrew Peller Limited produces and markets wines and craft beverage alcohol products in Canada. The company offers wines under the Peller Estates, Trius, Thirty Bench, Wayne Gretzky, Sandhill, Red Rooster, Black Hills Estate Winery, Tinhorn Creek Vineyards, Gray Monk Estate Winery, Raven Conspiracy, and Conviction brands; Peller Family Vineyards, Copper Moon, Black Cellar, Vivo, Honest Lot, and XOXO brands; and Hochtaler, Domaine D'Or, Schloss Laderheim, Royal, and Sommet brands. It also produces craft ciders under the No Boats on Sunday brand; and various spirits and cream whisky products under the Wayne Gretzky No. 99 brand. In addition, the company produces and markets personal winemaking products under the Winexpert, Vine Co., Apres, Limited Edition, Passport Series, On the House, Wild Grapes, Island Mist, and Niagara Mist brands. Further, it owns and operates independent retail locations in Ontario under The Wine Shop, Wine Country Vintners, and Wine Country Merchants store names; and operates Andrew Peller Import Agency and The Small Winemaker's Collection Inc., which import and market premium wines. Andrew Peller Limited was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Grimsby, Canada.
Stock analysis
Andrew Peller Limited (ADW-B) currently trades at C$12.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$10.64, implying the stock looks roughly 12.8% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$11.08 per share, and 3 of the 21 models we run sit above the C$12.00 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at C$2.26, and 18 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: C$7.41 (bear) to C$13.84 (bull), the price of C$12.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Andrew Peller Limited reported revenue of C$393M in FY2026 versus C$374M in FY2022, a compound +1.3%/yr. Reported net income was C$27.1M in FY2026, compounding +21.4%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap C$514M (≈ $371M) · P/E ratio 16.6 · P/S ratio 1.15 · EPS (TTM) C$0.4600 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 6.9% · Return on equity 8.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades near its 52-week high and 107% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 17% fair-value upside, at −11%, ADW-B screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$7.41
Fair Value C$10.64
Bull C$13.84
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 5 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$0.1665 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
C$8.81
C$12.86
C$17.82
81
Growth DCF
C$9.04
C$12.74
C$17.10
79
Owner Earnings
C$4.06
C$6.51
C$9.51
76
All 21 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
C$8.81
C$12.86
C$17.82
81
Owner Earnings
C$4.06
C$6.51
C$9.51
76
5Y Revenue Exit
C$4.36
C$6.73
C$9.50
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
C$7.10
C$11.55
C$16.43
75
5Y P/E Exit
C$6.85
C$11.12
C$15.29
70
10Y Revenue Exit
C$6.05
C$8.38
C$11.03
67
10Y EBITDA Exit
C$7.72
C$11.35
C$15.61
69
10Y P/E Exit
C$7.58
C$11.08
C$14.86
64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
C$4.30
C$9.68
C$12.38
65
PEG = 1.0
C$1.58
C$2.26
C$2.94
57
Multiples
P/E Multiple
C$9.97
C$13.29
C$16.61
63
P/S Multiple
C$8.07
C$10.76
C$13.45
58
P/B Multiple
C$8.07
C$10.76
C$13.45
55
EV/EBIT
C$3.38
C$5.58
C$7.79
64
EV/EBITDA
C$7.21
C$10.69
C$14.18
66
EV/Revenue
C$1.48
C$3.51
C$5.53
50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
C$3.08
C$4.13
C$6.17
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
C$9.04
C$12.74
C$17.10
79
Rev-Margin DCF
C$4.36
C$6.97
C$9.83
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
C$5.13
C$5.59
C$7.00
76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
C$7.45
C$10.64
C$13.84
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
50/100
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 83
Profitability
43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
36
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
77
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
51
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
91
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
43
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
100
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
4
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
Revenue growth 33 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−1% vs 4%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 6%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
ADW-B screens 13% overvalued. Compare with Kweichow Moutai Co →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 98 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Canadian Stocks
- Valuation of the Canada market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Alcohol
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| Pernod Ricard SA RI | €59.42 | €69.29 | +17% |
| Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 | ¥73.63 | ¥149.17 | +103% |
| Brown-Forman Corporation BFA | $26.64 | $27.69 | +4% |
| United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR | ₹1,397 | ₹285.39 | −80% |
| Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 | 0.4400 SGD | 0.6900 SGD | +57% |
| Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 | ¥38.07 | ¥24.64 | −35% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Andrew Peller Limited (ADW-B) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$10.64 versus the last price from Aug 17, 2026 of C$12.00, about −11% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ADW-B?
Our model-based fair value for Andrew Peller Limited is C$10.64 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Aug 17, 2026): C$12.00.
What is the quality score of ADW-B?
Andrew Peller Limited has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Andrew Peller Limited (ADW-B)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$10.64 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$7.41, optimistic scenario C$13.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Andrew Peller Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$10.64, about −11% upside versus the last price from Aug 17, 2026 of C$12.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$7.41, optimistic scenario C$13.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Andrew Peller Limited (ADW-B)?
Andrew Peller Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$389M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Andrew Peller Limited pay a dividend?
Andrew Peller Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.05% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Andrew Peller Limited (ADW-B)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Andrew Peller Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +2.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.0 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ADW-B use?
Our models discount Andrew Peller Limited at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.71, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Andrew Peller Limited that is +2.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Andrew Peller Limited (ADW-B) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Andrew Peller Limited grew +0.0 % a year. The price currently implies +2.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Andrew Peller Limited (ADW-B) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Andrew Peller Limited (+2.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Andrew Peller Limited (ADW-B)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.44 %: that much free cash flow Andrew Peller Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Andrew Peller Limited (ADW-B)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Andrew Peller Limited it is C$10.64 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of C$12.00. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Andrew Peller Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, ADW-B trades above its calculated fair value: price C$12.00, fair value C$10.64, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ADW-B?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$12.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$10.64). For Andrew Peller Limited the two are C$1.36 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Andrew Peller Limited worth?
The market values Andrew Peller Limited at about C$514M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is C$12.00; our models calculate a fair value of C$10.64 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ADW-B?
Our models span a range for Andrew Peller Limited: cautious scenario C$7.41, base C$10.64, optimistic C$13.84 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price C$12.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ADW-B?
Andrew Peller Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.6 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$10.64 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 8.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Andrew Peller Limited (ADW-B)?
Balance-sheet figures for Andrew Peller Limited (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 10.7%, debt of 0.56 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ADW-B from its 52-week high?
Andrew Peller Limited trades at C$12.00, about 47% below its 52-week high of C$8.18 and 107% above the low of C$5.79 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$10.64 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Andrew Peller Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Diageo plc, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Andrew Peller Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price C$12.00, calculated fair value C$10.64 (−11%), Quality Score 50/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ADW-B calculated?
We run Andrew Peller Limited through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$10.64, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Andrew Peller Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Andrew Peller Limited right now?
A fairly wide model range (C$7.41 to C$13.84) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Andrew Peller Limited (ADW-B) come from?
Earnings per share at Andrew Peller Limited grew +0.0 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.5 %, EBIT margin −0.8 %, tax rate −0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Andrew Peller Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Andrew Peller Limited (ADW-B)?
The market capitalisation of Andrew Peller Limited is C$514M (≈ $371M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Andrew Peller Limited (ADW-B)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Andrew Peller Limited is 1.15 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Andrew Peller Limited (ADW-B)?
Earnings per share at Andrew Peller Limited are C$0.4600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Andrew Peller Limited (ADW-B)?
The dividend yield of Andrew Peller Limited is 2.1% (payout 53.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Andrew Peller Limited (ADW-B)?
The net margin of Andrew Peller Limited is 6.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Andrew Peller Limited (ADW-B)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Andrew Peller Limited is 8.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Andrew Peller Limited (ADW-B)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Andrew Peller Limited is 4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Andrew Peller Limited (ADW-B)?
The operating margin of Andrew Peller Limited is 12.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Andrew Peller Limited (ADW-B)?
Revenue at Andrew Peller Limited is growing +3.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Andrew Peller Limited (ADW-B)?
Earnings per share at Andrew Peller Limited are growing +2.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Andrew Peller Limited (ADW-B) carry?
The net debt of Andrew Peller Limited is C$158M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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