Adyen NV (ADYEN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Adyen NV stock €991, price €901, upside +10.0%, quality 74 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €630.80 – €2,747 · fair‑value band €660.91 – €1,510 · the €901.20 price screens below the €991.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Adyen N.V. operates a payments platform in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Its platform integrates payments stack, including gateway, risk management, processing, acquiring, and settlement services.
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The company offers a back-end infrastructure for authorizing. It accepts payment through online, in-person payments, cross channel, and Adyen for Platforms. The company also provides optimization services, including Adyen Uplift, protect, authenticate and tokenize.
In addition, it offers financial products, such as accounts, capital, issuing, and payouts. It serves digital, mobility, SaaS platforms, retail, food and beverages, subscription, and travel and hospitality businesses. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Stock analysis
Adyen NV (ADYEN) currently trades at €901.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €991.32, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €1,536 per share, and 8 of the 24 models we run sit above the €901.20 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €147.13, and 16 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €660.91 (bear) to €1,510 (bull), the price of €901.20 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Adyen NV reported revenue of €2.7B in FY2025 versus €1.0B in FY2021, a compound +27.8%/yr. Reported net income was €1.1B in FY2025, compounding +22.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €28.5B Large · P/E ratio 25.3 · P/S ratio 11.0 · EPS (TTM) €35.58 · Net margin 43.6% · Return on equity 21.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin 43.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 83 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at 10%, ADYEN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€660.91Fair Value €991.32Bull€1,510
Price €901.20 · Upside +10.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€30.41 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+32.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +38.9% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+44.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +16.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.31.6% vs 40.3%, slowing
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 50% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+15.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.9% a year for the price and +13.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Moderate platform efficiency and margin durability support Adyen's growth through acquisitions while thin public signals and limited governance disclosures constrain moat conviction.
Main risk: Stripe could erode Adyen's moat by closing the gap in developer tools and enterprise features, potentially taking customers or pressuring margins on the unified platform.
Bull case: Adyen could leverage its Agentic APIs and foundational payments models to integrate deeply with emerging AI commerce platforms and maintain its position as the infrastructure layer for agent-led transactions.
Bear case: If Stripe captures more enterprise volume and regulatory hurdles multiply, Adyen might see slower platform adoption, higher operating costs and reduced ability to expand its unified commerce offering globally.
Adyen reported 21 percent constant-currency net revenue growth for the first half alongside two acquisitions that support platform expansion. Management raised full-year capital expenditure guidance to 7 percent of revenue to build infrastructure. Do the investments position the business for sustained higher growth or mainly delay margin expansion?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 345 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)21.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)43.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)43.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)18.9% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)25.3× · Pricier than median
P/B5.40× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)11.04× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)31.6× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Adyen NV Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ADYEN
Frequently asked questions
Is Adyen NV (ADYEN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €991.32 versus a price of €901.20, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ADYEN?
Our model-based fair value for Adyen NV is €991.32 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €901.20.
What is the quality score of ADYEN?
Adyen NV has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Adyen NV (ADYEN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €991.32 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €660.91, optimistic scenario €1,510. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Adyen NV stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €991.32, about +10% upside versus a price of €901.20 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €660.91, optimistic scenario €1,510. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Adyen NV (ADYEN)?
Adyen NV reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Adyen NV (ADYEN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Adyen NV would have to grow free cash flow by +12.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +31.3 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ADYEN use?
Our models discount Adyen NV at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.89, country premium for Netherlands. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Adyen NV that is +12.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Adyen NV (ADYEN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Adyen NV grew +31.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +12.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Adyen NV (ADYEN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Adyen NV (+12.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Adyen NV (ADYEN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.17 %: that much free cash flow Adyen NV produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Adyen NV (ADYEN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Adyen NV it is €991.32 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of €901.20. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Adyen NV stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, ADYEN trades below its calculated fair value: price €901.20, fair value €991.32, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ADYEN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€901.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€991.32). For Adyen NV the two are €90.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Adyen NV worth?
The market values Adyen NV at about €28.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is €901.20; our models calculate a fair value of €991.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ADYEN?
Our models span a range for Adyen NV: cautious scenario €660.91, base €991.32, optimistic €1,510 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price €901.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ADYEN?
Adyen NV trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.3 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €991.32 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings: 83.1. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 5.4, P/S 11.0, EV/EBITDA 13.8.
What is the PEG ratio of ADYEN?
The PEG ratio of Adyen NV is 0.88 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Adyen NV (ADYEN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Adyen NV (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 21.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ADYEN from its 52-week high?
Adyen NV trades at €901.20, about 39% below its 52-week high of €1,467 and 15% above the low of €785.20 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €991.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Adyen NV?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Adyen NV stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price €901.20, calculated fair value €991.32 (+10%), Quality Score 74/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ADYEN calculated?
We run Adyen NV through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €991.32 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Adyen NV currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Adyen NV (ADYEN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €901.20. Our model-based fair value is €991.32, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Adyen NV right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (€660.91 to €1,510) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Adyen NV (ADYEN) come from?
Earnings per share at Adyen NV grew +37.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +38.9 %, EBIT margin −1.7 %, tax rate −0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Adyen NV
How large is the market capitalisation of Adyen NV (ADYEN)?
The market capitalisation of Adyen NV is €28.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Adyen NV (ADYEN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Adyen NV is 11.0 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Adyen NV (ADYEN)?
Earnings per share at Adyen NV are €35.58 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Adyen NV (ADYEN)?
The net margin of Adyen NV is 43.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Adyen NV (ADYEN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Adyen NV is 21.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Adyen NV (ADYEN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Adyen NV is 11.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Adyen NV (ADYEN)?
The operating margin of Adyen NV is 43.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Adyen NV (ADYEN)?
Revenue at Adyen NV is growing +18.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +26.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Adyen NV (ADYEN)?
Earnings per share at Adyen NV are growing +12.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Adyen NV (ADYEN) hold?
Adyen NV holds more cash than debt, €10.5B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 7, 2026