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The AES Corporation (AES) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of The AES Corporation stock $11.37, price $14.89, that is 23.6% below the price, quality 34 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Utilities US

Some data Nov 4, 2026

The AES Corporation

AES · US

Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 24% below what the stock costs today.

Solidly profitable · 14.3% net margin (TTM)

Ranks above peers (10/14)

Costs just 5.6 times its yearly profit.

Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +4.8 %/yr in USD)

4.7% dividend yield · Watch coverage

Moderate moat 50/100 · thin data

Some data

Fair value $11.37 · Overvalued (−23.6%)

Quality 34/100

High debt

Negative free cash flow

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩Ohio regulators could order refunds or limit rates

13 models, one by oneBear $9.37 to bull $14.21 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 34/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $9.16 – $25.04 · fair‑value band $9.37 – $14.21 · the $14.89 price screens above the $11.37 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.

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Company profile

The AES Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a power generation and utility company. It operates through four segments: Renewables, Utilities, Energy Infrastructure, and New Energy Technologies.

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The company owns and/or operates power plants to generate and sell power to customers, such as utilities, industrial users, and other intermediaries; owns and/or operates utilities to generate or purchase, distribute, transmit, and sell electricity to end-user customers in the residential, commercial, industrial, and governmental sectors; and generates and sells electricity on the wholesale market, as well as investments in technologies to support leading-edge greener energy solutions.

It uses various fuels and technologies to generate electricity, such as solar, hydro, wind, coal, and gas, as well as renewables comprising energy storage and landfill gas.

The company owns and/or operates a generation portfolio of approximately 34,740 megawatts and distributes power to 2.7 million customers.

The company operates in the United States, Chile, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Mexico, Bulgaria, Panama, Colombia, Argentina, Vietnam, Jordan, Puerto Rico, and internationally.

The company was formerly known as Applied Energy Services, Inc. and changed its name to The AES Corporation in April 2000. The AES Corporation was incorporated in 1981 and is based in Arlington, Virginia.

Stock analysis

The AES Corporation (AES) currently trades at $14.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.37, 24% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $20.28 per share, and 4 of the 12 models we run sit above the $14.89 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.23, and 8 of the 12 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $9.37 (bear) to $14.21 (bull), the price of $14.89 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

The AES Corporation reported revenue of $12.2B in FY2025 versus $11.1B in FY2021, a compound +2.4%/yr. Reported net income was $949M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $10.6B Large · P/E ratio 5.6 · P/S ratio 0.81 · EPS (TTM) $2.67 · Dividend yield 4.7% · Net margin 14.3% · Return on equity 9.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −24%, AES screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $9.37 Fair Value $11.37 Bull $14.21

Price $14.89 · Downside -23.6%

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.67 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Best data coverage

Residual Income $9.37 $11.39 $15.71 75

Growth-Adj P/E $14.20 $20.28 $26.37 67

Gordon GGM $3.59 $7.16 $11.74 66

All 13 models by family

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $9.05 $23.54 $30.70 65

PEG = 1.0 $4.47 $6.38 $8.30 57

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM $3.59 $7.16 $11.74 66

DDM Multi-Stage $3.59 $5.51 $7.56 66

Multiples

P/E Multiple $17.96 $23.94 $29.93 63

P/S Multiple $16.96 $22.61 $28.27 57

P/B Multiple $8.52 $11.37 $14.21 55

EV/EBIT n/a $1.02 >$4.08 60

EV/EBITDA n/a $4.72 $11.43 62

EV/Revenue n/a n/a $3.95 49

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $3.16 $4.23 $6.31 53

Economic Profit

Residual Income $9.37 $11.39 $15.71 75

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E $14.20 $20.28 $26.37 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 34/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 27

How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital

Quality Growth 26

Are margins and returns getting better?

Cashflow 50

Do the profits arrive as real cash?

Financial strength 6

Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble

Investment 16

Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?

Low Volatility 71

How calm the share price moves, does not count

Price momentum 48

Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count

Near the 52-week high 46

Distance to the 52-week high, does not count

New shares 79

Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 5, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 29/100

The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Revenue growth 1 year

−0.4%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−1.0%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+4.8%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.4% a year

Revenue growth 35 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+12.6%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.

+43.5%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year+38.8%

Dividend (yield on the price)4.7%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.38.8% vs 5.3%, picking up

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.26% → 16%

Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

AES screens overvalued: fair value 24% below the price. Compare with Iberdrola, S.A →

Note from the team Oct 11, 2026

AI conclusion: The diversified utilities business shows limited signs of a durable competitive moat while its main weakness remains high debt together with ongoing negative free cash flow.

Main risk: Ohio regulators reviewing excessive earnings or reliability shortfalls at AES Ohio could require customer refunds or additional investments that reduce margins in the regulated utilities segment.

Bull case: AES could leverage its data center contracts and AI-optimized renewables to secure stable long-term offtake and expand under private ownership with infrastructure partners focused on growth capital.

Bear case: Repeated regulatory interventions in Ohio could force ongoing refunds, cap returns or delay rate recoveries, constraining cash flow from the core utilities business and limiting investment in renewables.

AES is advancing toward a take-private transaction with an infrastructure consortium following shareholder and Ohio regulatory approvals. This creates tension around whether its renewable projects and energy transition efforts will accelerate under new owners or settle into more conservative infrastructure priorities. Will the business gain more from private-equity stability or lose independent momentum in clean power?

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Diversified · 49 stocks

Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures

Overall it ranks above its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 34 · Bottom 25%

Fair Value upside −23.6% · Above median

Profitability

Return on equity (12 months) 9.6% · Above median

Return on assets 3.3% · Above median

Net margin (12 months) 25.6% · Top 25%

Operating margin (12 months) 18.7% · Above median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 19.9% · Top 25%

Dividend yield (12 months) 4.7% · Above median

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 3.89× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 5.6× · Cheapest 25%

P/B 1.55× · Cheaper than median

P/S (12 months) 1.46× · Pricier than median

EV/EBITDA 15.5× · Priciest 25%

PEG 1.09× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)2 · sector 0

FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 32

PAST (return on equity)38 · sector 35

HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 48

DIVIDEND (yield)95 · sector 82

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value	Compare
Engie SA ENGI	€24.01	€20.64	−14%	vs AES
RWE Aktiengesellschaft generates and RWE	€57.06	€43.47	−24%	vs AES
Enel SpA ENEL	€9.77	€5.94	−39%	vs AES
Sempra SRE	$79.83	$43.34	−46%	vs AES
EDP, S.A EDP	€4.98	€2.67	−46%	vs AES
Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. BIP	$37.81	$17.58	−54%	vs AES
E.ON SE EOAN	€19.32	€8.96	−54%	vs AES
Iberdrola, S.A IBE	€22.77	€10.28	−55%	vs AES
EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG EBK	€65.20	€21.11	−68%	vs AES
ACWA Power Company 2082	153.80 SAR	27.47 SAR	−82%	vs AES

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The AES Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AES

Frequently asked questions

Is The AES Corporation (AES) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.37 versus a price of $14.89, about 24% lower (overvalued).

What is the fair value of AES?

Our model-based fair value for The AES Corporation is $11.37 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.89.

What is the quality score of AES?

The AES Corporation has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for The AES Corporation (AES)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.37 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.37, optimistic scenario $14.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the The AES Corporation stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $11.37, about 24% lower versus a price of $14.89 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.37, optimistic scenario $14.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of The AES Corporation (AES)?

The AES Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $13.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).

Does The AES Corporation pay a dividend?

The AES Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 4.73% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of The AES Corporation (AES)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For The AES Corporation it is $11.37 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $14.89. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is The AES Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Nov 4, 2026, AES trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.89, fair value $11.37, a gap of about −24% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of AES?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.89); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.37). For The AES Corporation the two are $3.52 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is The AES Corporation worth?

The market values The AES Corporation at about $10.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $14.89; our models calculate a fair value of $11.37 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AES?

Our models span a range for The AES Corporation: cautious scenario $9.37, base $11.37, optimistic $14.21 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $14.89). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of AES?

The AES Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.6 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.37 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 6.4 (reported for FY2025: 11.2). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 26.8. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 1.6, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 15.5.

What is the PEG ratio of AES?

The PEG ratio of The AES Corporation is 1.09 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.

How solid is the balance sheet of The AES Corporation (AES)?

Balance-sheet figures for The AES Corporation (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 9.6%, debt of 3.89 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is AES from its 52-week high?

The AES Corporation trades at $14.89, about 13% below its 52-week high of $17.07 and 13% above the low of $13.16 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.37 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to The AES Corporation?

From the same area (Utilities) we also value Iberdrola, S.A, Enel SpA, Engie SA, Sempra, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is The AES Corporation stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $14.89, calculated fair value $11.37 (−24%), Quality Score 34/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of AES calculated?

We run The AES Corporation through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.37, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. The AES Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of The AES Corporation (AES)?

The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $14.89. Our model-based fair value is $11.37, about 24% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with The AES Corporation right now?

The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($14.21). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.

Where does the earnings growth of The AES Corporation (AES) come from?

Earnings per share at The AES Corporation grew +5.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −2.5 %, EBIT margin −0.4 %, tax rate +5.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of The AES Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of The AES Corporation (AES)?

The market capitalisation of The AES Corporation is $10.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of The AES Corporation (AES)?

The price-to-sales ratio of The AES Corporation is 0.81 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of The AES Corporation (AES)?

Earnings per share at The AES Corporation are $2.67 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of The AES Corporation (AES)?

The dividend yield of The AES Corporation is 4.7% (payout 15.0%, on adjusted earnings, reported 26.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of The AES Corporation (AES)?

The net margin of The AES Corporation is 14.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of The AES Corporation (AES)?

The return on equity (ROE) of The AES Corporation is 9.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of The AES Corporation (AES)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of The AES Corporation is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of The AES Corporation (AES)?

The operating margin of The AES Corporation is 18.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at The AES Corporation (AES)?

Revenue at The AES Corporation is growing +19.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at The AES Corporation (AES)?

Earnings per share at The AES Corporation are growing +951% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does The AES Corporation (AES) generate?

The free cash flow of The AES Corporation is −$1.6B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does The AES Corporation (AES) carry?

The net debt of The AES Corporation is $28.3B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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