The AES Corporation (AES) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $10.5B
The AES Corporation
AES · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price +0.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 18% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Our model range runs from $14.20 (bear) to $22.10 (bull), base $17.38. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 36/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.16 – $25.04 · fair‑value band $14.20 – $22.10 · the $14.70 price screens below the $17.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
The AES Corporation (AES) currently trades at $14.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.38, implying the stock looks roughly 18.2% undervalued today. We read business quality at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, The AES Corporation generated revenue of $12.5B at a net margin of 10.8%. Revenue grew 8.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.3%. Net debt stands at $28.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $14.20 (bear case) to $22.10 (bull case); at $14.70, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at 18%, AES screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($22.62) versus Earnings-Based ($6.39). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
The AES Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a power generation and utility company. It operates through four segments: Renewables, Utilities, Energy Infrastructure, and New Energy Technologies.
Full company description
The AES Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a power generation and utility company. It operates through four segments: Renewables, Utilities, Energy Infrastructure, and New Energy Technologies. The company owns and/or operates power plants to generate and sell power to customers, such as utilities, industrial users, and other intermediaries; owns and/or operates utilities to generate or purchase, distribute, transmit, and sell electricity to end-user customers in the residential, commercial, industrial, and governmental sectors; and generates and sells electricity on the wholesale market, as well as investments in technologies to support leading-edge greener energy solutions. It uses various fuels and technologies to generate electricity, such as solar, hydro, wind, coal, and gas, as well as renewables comprising energy storage and landfill gas. The company owns and/or operates a generation portfolio of approximately 34,740 megawatts and distributes power to 2.7 million customers. The company operates in the United States, Chile, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Mexico, Bulgaria, Panama, Colombia, Argentina, Vietnam, Jordan, Puerto Rico, and internationally. The company was formerly known as Applied Energy Services, Inc. and changed its name to The AES Corporation in April 2000. The AES Corporation was incorporated in 1981 and is based in Arlington, Virginia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
The AES Corporation reported revenue of $12.2B in FY2025 versus $11.1B in FY2021, a compound +2.4%/yr. Reported net income was $949M in FY2025.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
Peer Group
Utilities - Diversified · 51 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 25/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iberdrola, S.A IBE | €21.25 | €9.34 | -56% |
| Enel SpA ENEL | €10.28 | €5.83 | -43% |
| Engie SA 1ENGI | €27.14 | €21.32 | -21% |
| Sempra SRE | $93.15 | $47.77 | -49% |
| E.ON SE EOAN | €19.34 | €11.71 | -39% |
| RWE Aktiengesellschaft generates and 1RWE | €56.66 | €29.64 | -48% |
| ACWA Power Company 2082 | 198.20 SAR | 25.38 SAR | -87% |
| Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. BIPUN | C$55.05 | C$17.66 | -68% |
| EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG EBK | €69.00 | €21.11 | -69% |
| EDP, S.A EDP | €4.41 | €3.81 | -14% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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