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The AES Corporation (AES) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what The AES Corporation is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Utilities · US · ISIN US00130H1059

TA The AES Corporation logo Some data Sep 18, 2026

The AES Corporation

AES · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value $11.45 · Overvalued (−23%)
!Quality 30/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +4.8 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 10.8% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
·4.75% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
!Moderate moat 46/100
!Insider activity 25/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 3 out of 100
!Weak on past: 21 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$25.04 $9.16 Fair Value $11.45 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $9.16 – $25.04 · fair‑value band $9.35 – $20.71 · the $14.83 price screens above the $11.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

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Company profile

The AES Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a power generation and utility company. It operates through four segments: Renewables, Utilities, Energy Infrastructure, and New Energy Technologies.

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The AES Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a power generation and utility company. It operates through four segments: Renewables, Utilities, Energy Infrastructure, and New Energy Technologies. The company owns and/or operates power plants to generate and sell power to customers, such as utilities, industrial users, and other intermediaries; owns and/or operates utilities to generate or purchase, distribute, transmit, and sell electricity to end-user customers in the residential, commercial, industrial, and governmental sectors; and generates and sells electricity on the wholesale market, as well as investments in technologies to support leading-edge greener energy solutions. It uses various fuels and technologies to generate electricity, such as solar, hydro, wind, coal, and gas, as well as renewables comprising energy storage and landfill gas. The company owns and/or operates a generation portfolio of approximately 34,740 megawatts and distributes power to 2.7 million customers. The company operates in the United States, Chile, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Mexico, Bulgaria, Panama, Colombia, Argentina, Vietnam, Jordan, Puerto Rico, and internationally. The company was formerly known as Applied Energy Services, Inc. and changed its name to The AES Corporation in April 2000. The AES Corporation was incorporated in 1981 and is based in Arlington, Virginia.

Stock analysis

The AES Corporation (AES) currently trades at $14.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.45, implying the stock looks roughly 29.5% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $20.29 per share, and 5 of the 13 models we run sit above the $14.83 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $6.39, and 8 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $9.35 (bear) to $20.71 (bull), the price of $14.83 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

The AES Corporation reported revenue of $12.2B in FY2025 versus $11.1B in FY2021, a compound +2.4%/yr. Reported net income was $949M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $10.6B · P/E ratio 7.7 · P/S ratio 0.60 · EPS (TTM) $1.92 · Dividend yield 4.7% · Net margin 7.8% · Return on equity 5.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −23%, AES screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $9.35 Fair Value $11.45 Bull $20.71
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8795 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $9.37 $11.52 $23.75 71
Growth-Adj P/E $14.20 $20.29 $26.38 67
Gordon GGM $6.45 $12.92 $21.28 66
All 13 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $9.05 $23.55 $30.71 65
PEG = 1.0 $4.47 $6.39 $8.30 57
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $6.45 $12.92 $21.28 66
DDM Multi-Stage $6.45 $9.91 $13.63 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $17.96 $23.95 $29.94 63
P/S Multiple $16.97 $22.62 $28.28 58
P/B Multiple $13.04 $17.38 $21.73 55
EV/EBIT n/a $6.78 $17.14 61
EV/EBITDA $1.39 $13.40 $25.41 59
EV/Revenue n/a $1.26 $12.03 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.83 $6.47 $9.66 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $9.37 $11.52 $23.75 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $14.20 $20.29 $26.38 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 30/100

Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55

Profitability 27
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 26
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 6
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 16
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 63
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 50
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 54
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 71
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 29/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
Revenue growth 35 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+43.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+38.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.39% vs 5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.26% → 16%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

AES screens 30% overvalued. Compare with Iberdrola, S.A →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Diversified · 52 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −23% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 11% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 19% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 3.89× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.7× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.53× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.84× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 9.4× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.09× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)3 · sector 5
FUTURE (revenue growth)44 · sector 6
PAST (return on equity)21 · sector 37
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 48
DIVIDEND (yield)95 · sector 80

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Iberdrola, S.A IBE €20.24 €8.00 −60%
Enel SpA ENEL €8.90 €3.71 −58%
Engie SA ENGI €24.25 €20.64 −15%
Sempra SRE $81.70 $43.35 −47%
E.ON SE EOAN €17.78 €9.09 −49%
RWE Aktiengesellschaft generates and RWE €60.62 €47.21 −22%
ACWA Power Company 2082 181.50 SAR 27.47 SAR −85%
Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. BIPUN C$51.08 C$59.52 +17%
EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG EBK €68.40 €21.11 −69%
EDP, S.A EDP €4.85 €3.81 −21%

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The AES Corporation · Fair Value
$11.45 −30%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The AES Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AES

Frequently asked questions

Is The AES Corporation (AES) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.45 versus a price of $14.83, about −23% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AES?
Our model-based fair value for The AES Corporation is $11.45 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.83.
What is the quality score of AES?
The AES Corporation has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for The AES Corporation (AES)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.45 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.35, optimistic scenario $20.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the The AES Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.45, about −23% upside versus a price of $14.83 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.35, optimistic scenario $20.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of The AES Corporation (AES)?
The AES Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $12.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does The AES Corporation pay a dividend?
The AES Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.75% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of The AES Corporation (AES)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For The AES Corporation it is $11.45 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $14.83. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is The AES Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, AES trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.83, fair value $11.45, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AES?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.83); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.45). For The AES Corporation the two are $3.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is The AES Corporation worth?
The market values The AES Corporation at about $10.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $14.83; our models calculate a fair value of $11.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AES?
Our models span a range for The AES Corporation: cautious scenario $9.35, base $11.45, optimistic $20.71 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price $14.83). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AES?
The AES Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.7 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.45 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 1.5, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 9.4.
What is the PEG ratio of AES?
The PEG ratio of The AES Corporation is 1.09 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of The AES Corporation (AES)?
Balance-sheet figures for The AES Corporation (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 5.3%, debt of 3.89 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AES from its 52-week high?
The AES Corporation trades at $14.83, about 15% below its 52-week high of $17.44 and 56% above the low of $9.53 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to The AES Corporation?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Iberdrola, S.A, Enel SpA, Engie SA, Sempra, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is The AES Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $14.83, calculated fair value $11.45 (−23%), Quality Score 30/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AES calculated?
We run The AES Corporation through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. The AES Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of The AES Corporation (AES)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $14.83. Our model-based fair value is $11.45, about −23% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with The AES Corporation right now?
Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($9.35 to $20.71) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of The AES Corporation (AES) come from?
Earnings per share at The AES Corporation grew +5.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −2.5 %, EBIT margin −0.4 %, tax rate +5.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of The AES Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of The AES Corporation (AES)?
The market capitalisation of The AES Corporation is $10.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of The AES Corporation (AES)?
The price-to-sales ratio of The AES Corporation is 0.60 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of The AES Corporation (AES)?
Earnings per share at The AES Corporation are $1.92 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of The AES Corporation (AES)?
The dividend yield of The AES Corporation is 4.7% (payout 36.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of The AES Corporation (AES)?
The net margin of The AES Corporation is 7.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of The AES Corporation (AES)?
The return on equity (ROE) of The AES Corporation is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of The AES Corporation (AES)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of The AES Corporation is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of The AES Corporation (AES)?
The operating margin of The AES Corporation is 18.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at The AES Corporation (AES)?
Revenue at The AES Corporation is growing +8.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at The AES Corporation (AES)?
Earnings per share at The AES Corporation are growing +951% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does The AES Corporation (AES) generate?
The free cash flow of The AES Corporation is −$1.6B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does The AES Corporation (AES) carry?
The net debt of The AES Corporation is $28.3B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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