Air France-KLM SA (AF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Air France-KLM SA €11.20, price €11.47, upside -2.4%, quality 33 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €7.05 – €23.91 · fair‑value band €6.89 – €16.66 · the €11.47 price screens above the €11.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Air France-KLM SA, together with its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo transportation services. The company operates through Network, Maintenance, Transavia, and Other segments. It also offers airframe and engine maintenance, and component support services, including electronic, mechanical, pneumatic, hydraulic, and other services.
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Air France-KLM SA, together with its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo transportation services. The company operates through Network, Maintenance, Transavia, and Other segments. It also offers airframe and engine maintenance, and component support services, including electronic, mechanical, pneumatic, hydraulic, and other services. The company provides its services under the Air France, KLM, and Transavia brand names. It operates in France, rest of Europe, North Africa, the Caribbean, West Indies, French Guyana, Indian Ocean, Africa, the Middle East, North America, Mexico, French Polynesia, South America, Asia, and New Caledonia. Air France-KLM SA was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
Stock analysis
Air France-KLM SA (AF) currently trades at €11.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €11.20, implying the stock looks roughly 2.4% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €107.83 per share, and 20 of the 22 models we run sit above the €11.47 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €31.32, and 2 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €6.89 (bear) to €16.66 (bull), the price of €11.47 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Air France-KLM SA reported revenue of €33.0B in FY2025 versus €14.3B in FY2021, a compound +23.2%/yr. Reported net income was €1.6B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €3.5B · P/E ratio 2.1 · P/S ratio 0.10 · EPS (TTM) €5.51 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 4.8% · Return on equity 93.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 31% fair-value upside, at −2%, AF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €6.89Fair Value €11.20Bull €16.66
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€4.05 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.4% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ −8.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12% vs −2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−42% → 6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 12.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 52% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.9% a year for the price and +2.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 59 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)2.1× · Cheapest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)0.12× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF34.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA0.7× · Cheapest 25%
PEG0.14× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)30· sector 58
FUTURE (revenue growth)22· sector 47
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 50
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 68
DIVIDEND (yield)1· sector 48
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Air France-KLM SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AF
Frequently asked questions
Is Air France-KLM SA (AF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €11.20 versus a price of €11.47, about −2% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AF?
Our model-based fair value for Air France-KLM SA is €11.20 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €11.47.
What is the quality score of AF?
Air France-KLM SA has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Air France-KLM SA (AF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €11.20 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario €6.89, optimistic scenario €16.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Air France-KLM SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €11.20, about −2% upside versus a price of €11.47 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €6.89, optimistic scenario €16.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Air France-KLM SA (AF)?
Air France-KLM SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €33.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Air France-KLM SA pay a dividend?
Air France-KLM SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.06% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Air France-KLM SA (AF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Air France-KLM SA would have to grow free cash flow by +8.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +24.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AF use?
Our models discount Air France-KLM SA at 11.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.33, country premium for France. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Air France-KLM SA that is +8.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Air France-KLM SA (AF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Air France-KLM SA grew +24.4 % a year. The price currently implies +8.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Air France-KLM SA (AF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Air France-KLM SA (+8.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Air France-KLM SA (AF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.57 %: that much free cash flow Air France-KLM SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Air France-KLM SA (AF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Air France-KLM SA it is €11.20 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €11.47. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Air France-KLM SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, AF trades above its calculated fair value: price €11.47, fair value €11.20, a gap of about −2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€11.47); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€11.20). For Air France-KLM SA the two are €0.2740 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Air France-KLM SA worth?
The market values Air France-KLM SA at about €3.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €11.47; our models calculate a fair value of €11.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AF?
Our models span a range for Air France-KLM SA: cautious scenario €6.89, base €11.20, optimistic €16.66 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €11.47). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AF?
Air France-KLM SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.1 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €11.20 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.1, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 0.7.
What is the PEG ratio of AF?
The PEG ratio of Air France-KLM SA is 0.14 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Air France-KLM SA (AF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Air France-KLM SA (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AF from its 52-week high?
Air France-KLM SA trades at €11.47, about 18% below its 52-week high of €13.98 and 34% above the low of €8.56 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €11.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Air France-KLM SA?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Air France-KLM SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €11.47, calculated fair value €11.20 (−2%), Quality Score 33/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AF calculated?
We run Air France-KLM SA through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €11.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Air France-KLM SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Air France-KLM SA (AF)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €11.47. Our model-based fair value is €11.20, about −2% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Air France-KLM SA right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (€6.89 to €16.66) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Air France-KLM SA (AF) come from?
Earnings per share at Air France-KLM SA grew −7.0 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −12.5 %, EBIT margin +2.7 %, tax rate +2.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Air France-KLM SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Air France-KLM SA (AF)?
The market capitalisation of Air France-KLM SA is €3.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Air France-KLM SA (AF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Air France-KLM SA is 0.10 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Air France-KLM SA (AF)?
Earnings per share at Air France-KLM SA are €5.51 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Air France-KLM SA (AF)?
The dividend yield of Air France-KLM SA is 0.1% (payout 0.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Air France-KLM SA (AF)?
The net margin of Air France-KLM SA is 4.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Air France-KLM SA (AF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Air France-KLM SA is 93.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Air France-KLM SA (AF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Air France-KLM SA is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Air France-KLM SA (AF)?
The operating margin of Air France-KLM SA is −0.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Air France-KLM SA (AF)?
Revenue at Air France-KLM SA is growing +4.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Air France-KLM SA (AF)?
Earnings per share at Air France-KLM SA are growing +6.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Air France-KLM SA (AF) carry?
The net debt of Air France-KLM SA is €17.5B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026