Air France-KLM SA (AF) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · FR · Market cap €3.5B
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 13, 2026, revised from €80.81 to €10.36 (−87.2%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −8.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 15% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range (€8.24 to €15.88) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from €8.24 (bear) to €15.88 (bull), base €10.36. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 33/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €7.05 – €23.91 · fair‑value band €8.24 – €15.88 · the €12.16 price screens above the €10.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Air France-KLM SA (AF) currently trades at €12.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €10.36, implying the stock looks roughly 14.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Air France-KLM SA generated revenue of €33.3B at a net margin of 4.8%. Revenue grew 4.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 93.3%. Net debt stands at €17.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €8.24 (bear case) to €15.88 (bull case); at €12.16, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 40% fair-value upside, at -15%, AF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€127.47) versus Dividend Discount (€0.1000). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Air France-KLM SA, together with its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo transportation services. The company operates through Network, Maintenance, Transavia, and Other segments. It also offers airframe and engine maintenance, and component support services, including electronic, mechanical, pneumatic, hydraulic, and other services.
Full company description
Air France-KLM SA, together with its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo transportation services. The company operates through Network, Maintenance, Transavia, and Other segments. It also offers airframe and engine maintenance, and component support services, including electronic, mechanical, pneumatic, hydraulic, and other services. The company provides its services under the Air France, KLM, and Transavia brand names. It operates in France, rest of Europe, North Africa, the Caribbean, West Indies, French Guyana, Indian Ocean, Africa, the Middle East, North America, Mexico, French Polynesia, South America, Asia, and New Caledonia. Air France-KLM SA was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Air France-KLM SA reported revenue of €33.0B in FY2025 versus €14.3B in FY2021, a compound +23.2%/yr. Reported net income was €1.6B in FY2025.
of which total revenue +2.5 pp · buybacks/dilution −15.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
AF screens 15% overvalued. Compare with Delta Air Lines, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Air France-KLM (AFLYY) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Revenue Surges 10% to EUR9. ...
- Air France-KLM Q2 2026 Results
- Air France-KLM and Lufthansa bid for Portugal's TAP airline
- Air France-KLM submits a binding offer for an up to 49.9% stake in TAP Air Portugal
Peer Group
Airlines · 58 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL | $84.17 | $118.24 | +40% |
| United Airlines Holdings UAL | $120.97 | $175.62 | +45% |
| Ryanair Holdings RYA | €25.47 | €41.26 | +62% |
| Southwest Airlines Co LUV | $47.56 | $14.76 | -69% |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO | ₹5,249 | ₹3,704 | -29% |
| Singapore Airlines Limited C6L | 7.60 SGD | 7.89 SGD | +4% |
| Air China Limited 601111 | ¥5.97 | ¥7.16 | +20% |
| LATAM Airlines Group LTM | $54.87 | $106.79 | +95% |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG 1LHA | €8.57 | €15.42 | +80% |
| China Southern Airlines Company 600029 | ¥4.99 | ¥1.28 | -74% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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