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Air China Limited (601111) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 122B CNY

AC Air China Limited 601111 · SHG
Price¥6.13
Fair Value¥9.81
Upside+60.0%
Quality31/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 1.1% net margin
High debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (3/14)
Narrow moat 24/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥2.34 – ¥17.27 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026

From 13 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from ¥6.01 to ¥9.81 (+63.2%) since Jul 5, 2026. Share price +0.7% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 60% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (31/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The model range is unusually wide (¥2.34 to ¥17.27). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥11.80 ¥5.84 Fair Value ¥9.81 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥5.84 – ¥11.80 · fair‑value band ¥2.34 – ¥17.27 · the ¥6.13 price screens below the ¥9.81 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

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Analysis

Air China Limited (601111) currently trades at ¥6.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥9.81, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today. We read business quality at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Air China Limited generated revenue of 176B CNY at a net margin of 1.1%. Revenue grew 11.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.0%. Net debt stands at 228B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥2.34 (bear case) to ¥17.27 (bull case); at ¥6.13, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 45% fair-value upside, at 60%, 601111 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥6.73 ¥12.48 ¥21.79 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥5.10 ¥9.65 ¥15.22 74
Gordon GGM ¥1.42 ¥2.96 ¥4.70 70
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥6.68 ¥12.67 ¥22.43 38
Owner Earnings ¥1.71 ¥4.30 ¥8.54 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥5.10 ¥9.68 ¥15.65 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥5.02 ¥9.52 ¥14.91 41
10Y Revenue Exit ¥5.36 ¥9.79 ¥16.07 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥5.52 ¥9.68 ¥15.47 37
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥1.42 ¥2.96 ¥4.70 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥1.42 ¥2.50 ¥3.11 61
Multiples
EV/EBITDA ¥4.84 ¥7.16 ¥9.48 54
EV/Revenue ¥4.50 ¥7.33 ¥10.16 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥0.5821 ¥0.7776 ¥1.16 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥6.73 ¥12.48 ¥21.79 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥5.10 ¥9.65 ¥15.22 74

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥9.68) versus Asset-Based (¥0.7776). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 176B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +11.3%
Net margin 1.1%
Return on equity 2.0%
Free cash flow 26.5B CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 53.9
More key figures
Operating margin 3.3%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.1100
EPS growth (YoY) -30.0%
Net debt 228B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 31/100

Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35

Profitability 13
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 66
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 5
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 41
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 80
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 18
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 13
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 21
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Air China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides air passenger, air cargo, and airline-related services in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates in Airline Operations and Other Operations segments. The company provides aircraft engineering and airport ground handling services.

Full company description

Air China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides air passenger, air cargo, and airline-related services in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates in Airline Operations and Other Operations segments. The company provides aircraft engineering and airport ground handling services. It is also involved in the import and export trading business; wholesale and import of aircraft parts; aircraft engine maintenance; aviation information technology consulting; and provision of cabin, airline catering, air ticketing and catering, human resources, aircraft overhaul and maintenance, and financial services. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Air China Limited reported revenue of ¥171B in FY2025 versus ¥74.5B in FY2021, a compound +23.2%/yr. Reported net income was −¥1.8B in FY2025.

Growth Quality 81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
171B CNY
Latest YoY
+2.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+48.0%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+19.8%
Avg. growth/yr (23Y)
+8.8%
Revenue +23.2%/yr
FY21 ¥74.5B
FY22 ¥52.9B
FY23 ¥141B
FY24 ¥167B
FY25 ¥171B
Net income
FY21 −¥16.6B
FY22 −¥38.6B
FY23 −¥1.0B
FY24 −¥237M
FY25 −¥1.8B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Air China Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601111

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Airlines · 60 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 31 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +60% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Revenue growth 11% · Above median
Debt / equity 2.18× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 53.9× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 2.86× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.69× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 11.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 7.11× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 36
FUTURE 57 · sector 46
PAST 8 · sector 46
HEALTH 0 · sector 72
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 44

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL $84.17 $118.24 +40%
United Airlines Holdings UAL $120.97 $175.62 +45%
Ryanair Holdings RYA €25.47 €41.26 +62%
Southwest Airlines Co LUV $47.56 $14.76 -69%
InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO ₹5,249 ₹3,704 -29%
Singapore Airlines Limited C6L 7.60 SGD 7.89 SGD +4%
LATAM Airlines Group LTM $54.87 $106.79 +95%
Deutsche Lufthansa AG 1LHA €9.98 €15.60 +56%
China Southern Airlines Company 600029 ¥4.99 ¥1.28 -74%
China Eastern Airlines Corporation 600115 ¥3.66 ¥14.20 +288%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Air China Limited (601111) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥9.81 versus a price of ¥6.13, about +60% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 601111?
Our model-based fair value for Air China Limited is ¥9.81 (as of Jul 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥6.13.
What is the quality score of 601111?
Air China Limited has a Quality Score of 31/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Air China Limited (601111)?
Air China Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 176B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 16, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 601111?
The net profit margin of Air China Limited is about 1.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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