Air China Ltd Class A (601111) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Air China Ltd Class A is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Air China Ltd Class A for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.73 – ¥11.80 · fair‑value band ¥12.31 – ¥36.04 · the ¥5.83 price screens below the ¥22.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Air China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides air passenger, air cargo, and airline-related services in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates in Airline Operations and Other Operations segments. The company provides aircraft engineering and airport ground handling services.
Show more
Air China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides air passenger, air cargo, and airline-related services in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates in Airline Operations and Other Operations segments. The company provides aircraft engineering and airport ground handling services. It is also involved in the import and export trading business; wholesale and import of aircraft parts; aircraft engine maintenance; aviation information technology consulting; and provision of cabin, airline catering, air ticketing and catering, human resources, aircraft overhaul and maintenance, and financial services. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Air China Ltd Class A (601111) currently trades at ¥5.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥22.78, implying the stock looks roughly 74.4% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥21.54 per share, and 12 of the 13 models we run sit above the ¥5.83 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥5.88, and 1 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥12.31 (bear) to ¥36.04 (bull), the price of ¥5.83 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Air China Ltd Class A reported revenue of 171B CNY in FY2025 versus 74.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound +23.2%/yr. Reported net income was −1.8B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 122B CNY (≈ $18.2B) · P/E ratio 53.9 · P/S ratio 0.69 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.1100 · Dividend yield 5.0% · Net margin −1.0% · Return on equity 2.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 29% fair-value upside, at 291%, 601111 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥12.31Fair Value ¥22.78Bull ¥36.04
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0799 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+48.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.8%
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−26.6% (2020) → −2.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−11.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (57 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 53 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+60% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.18× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Air China Ltd Class A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601111
Frequently asked questions
Is Air China Ltd Class A (601111) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥22.78 versus a price of ¥5.83, about +291% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 601111?
Our model-based fair value for Air China Ltd Class A is ¥22.78 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥5.83.
What is the quality score of 601111?
Air China Ltd Class A has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Air China Ltd Class A (601111)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥22.78 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥12.31, optimistic scenario ¥36.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Air China Ltd Class A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥22.78, about +291% upside versus a price of ¥5.83 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥12.31, optimistic scenario ¥36.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Air China Ltd Class A (601111)?
Air China Ltd Class A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 176B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Air China Ltd Class A pay a dividend?
Air China Ltd Class A currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.02% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Air China Ltd Class A (601111)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Air China Ltd Class A would have to grow free cash flow by -11.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.8 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 601111 use?
Our models discount Air China Ltd Class A at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.47, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Air China Ltd Class A that is -11.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Air China Ltd Class A (601111) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Air China Ltd Class A grew +19.8 % a year. The price currently implies -11.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Air China Ltd Class A (601111) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Air China Ltd Class A (-11.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Air China Ltd Class A (601111)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 27.31 %: that much free cash flow Air China Ltd Class A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Air China Ltd Class A (601111)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Air China Ltd Class A it is ¥22.78 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of ¥5.83. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Air China Ltd Class A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, 601111 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥5.83, fair value ¥22.78, a gap of about +291% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 601111?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥5.83); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥22.78). For Air China Ltd Class A the two are ¥16.95 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Air China Ltd Class A worth?
The market values Air China Ltd Class A at about 122B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is ¥5.83; our models calculate a fair value of ¥22.78 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 601111?
Our models span a range for Air China Ltd Class A: cautious scenario ¥12.31, base ¥22.78, optimistic ¥36.04 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price ¥5.83). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 601111?
Air China Ltd Class A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 53.9 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥22.78 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 7.1, P/B 2.9, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 11.0.
What is the PEG ratio of 601111?
The PEG ratio of Air China Ltd Class A is 7.11 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Air China Ltd Class A (601111)?
Balance-sheet figures for Air China Ltd Class A (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 2.0%, debt of 2.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 601111 from its 52-week high?
Air China Ltd Class A trades at ¥5.83, about 38% below its 52-week high of ¥9.45 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥22.78 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Air China Ltd Class A?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Air China Ltd Class A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price ¥5.83, calculated fair value ¥22.78 (+291%), Quality Score 30/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 601111 calculated?
We run Air China Ltd Class A through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥22.78, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Air China Ltd Class A currently trades 291 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Air China Ltd Class A (601111)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was ¥5.83. Our model-based fair value is ¥22.78, about +291% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Air China Ltd Class A right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (30/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥12.31). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (¥12.31 to ¥36.04). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Air China Ltd Class A
How large is the market capitalisation of Air China Ltd Class A (601111)?
The market capitalisation of Air China Ltd Class A is 122B CNY (≈ $18.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Air China Ltd Class A (601111)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Air China Ltd Class A is 0.69 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Air China Ltd Class A (601111)?
Earnings per share at Air China Ltd Class A are ¥0.1100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 53.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Air China Ltd Class A (601111)?
The dividend yield of Air China Ltd Class A is 5.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Air China Ltd Class A (601111)?
The net margin of Air China Ltd Class A is −1.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Air China Ltd Class A (601111)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Air China Ltd Class A is 2.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Air China Ltd Class A (601111)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Air China Ltd Class A is −5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Air China Ltd Class A (601111)?
The operating margin of Air China Ltd Class A is 3.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Air China Ltd Class A (601111)?
Revenue at Air China Ltd Class A is growing +11.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +48.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Air China Ltd Class A (601111)?
Earnings per share at Air China Ltd Class A are growing −30.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Air China Ltd Class A (601111) carry?
The net debt of Air China Ltd Class A is 228B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Air China Ltd Class A in the live analysis
One click puts Air China Ltd Class A on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
