AECI Ltd (AFEP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Aug 7, 2026: fair value of AECI Ltd ZAR 0.10, price ZAR 0.14, upside -32.4%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R0.1317 – R15.01 · fair‑value band R0.0855 – R0.1217 · the R0.1440 price screens above the R0.0974 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
AECI Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, provides products and services for mining, water treatment, plant and animal health, food and beverage, manufacturing, and general industrial sectors. The company operates through four segments: AECI Mining, AECI Chemicals, AECI Managed Businesses, and AECI Property Services and Corporate.
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AECI Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, provides products and services for mining, water treatment, plant and animal health, food and beverage, manufacturing, and general industrial sectors. The company operates through four segments: AECI Mining, AECI Chemicals, AECI Managed Businesses, and AECI Property Services and Corporate. The AECI Mining segment provides mine-to-mineral solutions for the mining sector, which includes commercial explosives, initiating systems, and blasting services, as well as surfactants for explosives manufacture. The AECI Chemicals segment supplies industrial and speciality chemical products; water treatment chemicals; and technology, equipment, and plant and crop protection products, as well as plant nutrients. The AECI Managed Businesses segment supplies products and services to customers in agriculture, industrial, manufacturing, road infrastructure, food and beverage, public water, and animal feed and products, as well as the textile sector. The AECI Property Services and Corporate segment offers property leasing and management services in the office, industrial, and retail sectors. It operates in South Africa, rest of the African continent, Europe, Asia, North America, South America, and Australia. AECI Ltd was founded in 1894 and is based in Sandton, South Africa.
Stock analysis
AECI Ltd (AFEP) currently trades at R0.1440, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R0.0974, 32.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of R0.2527 per share, and 12 of the 25 models we run sit above the R0.1440 price.
Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at R0.0589, and 13 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R0.0855 (bear) to R0.1217 (bull), the price of R0.1440 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
AECI Ltd reported revenue of 32.2B ZAR in FY2025 versus 26.1B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +5.4%/yr. Reported net income was 366M ZAR in FY2025, compounding −25.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 107M ZAC · P/E ratio 1.3 · P/S ratio 0.01 · EPS (TTM) R11.12 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 1.1% · Return on equity 2.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −32%, AFEP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R0.0855Fair Value R0.0974Bull R0.1217
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (6.68 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.7% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−3.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 5%
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AECI Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AFEP
Frequently asked questions
Is AECI Ltd (AFEP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R0.0974 versus the last price from Aug 7, 2026 of R0.1440, about −32% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AFEP?
Our model-based fair value for AECI Ltd is R0.0974 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Aug 7, 2026): R0.1440.
What is the quality score of AFEP?
AECI Ltd has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AECI Ltd (AFEP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R0.0974 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario R0.0855, optimistic scenario R0.1217. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AECI Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R0.0974, about −32% upside versus the last price from Aug 7, 2026 of R0.1440 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R0.0855, optimistic scenario R0.1217. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AECI Ltd (AFEP)?
AECI Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 32.2B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does AECI Ltd pay a dividend?
AECI Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.16% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of AECI Ltd (AFEP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AECI Ltd it is R0.0974 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R0.1440. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AECI Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AFEP trades above its calculated fair value: price R0.1440, fair value R0.0974, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AFEP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R0.1440); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R0.0974). For AECI Ltd the two are R0.0466 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AECI Ltd worth?
The market values AECI Ltd at about 107M ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R0.1440; our models calculate a fair value of R0.0974 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AFEP?
Our models span a range for AECI Ltd: cautious scenario R0.0855, base R0.0974, optimistic R0.1217 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R0.1440). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is AFEP from its 52-week high?
AECI Ltd trades at R0.1440, about 1% below its 52-week high of R0.1450 and 9% above the low of R0.1317 (as of Aug 7, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R0.0974 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AECI Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AECI Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R0.1440, calculated fair value R0.0974 (−32%), Quality Score 65/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AFEP calculated?
We run AECI Ltd through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R0.0974, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. AECI Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AECI Ltd (AFEP)?
The latest price we hold is from Aug 7, 2026 and stands at R0.1440. Our model-based fair value is R0.0974, about −32% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AECI Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R0.1217). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of AECI Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of AECI Ltd (AFEP)?
The market capitalisation of AECI Ltd is 107M ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of AECI Ltd (AFEP)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of AECI Ltd is 1.3 (as of Jul 16, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of AECI Ltd (AFEP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AECI Ltd is 0.01 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AECI Ltd (AFEP)?
Earnings per share at AECI Ltd are R11.12 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 1.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AECI Ltd (AFEP)?
The dividend yield of AECI Ltd is 0.2% (payout 0.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AECI Ltd (AFEP)?
The net margin of AECI Ltd is 1.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AECI Ltd (AFEP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AECI Ltd is 2.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AECI Ltd (AFEP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AECI Ltd is 7.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AECI Ltd (AFEP)?
The operating margin of AECI Ltd is 9.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AECI Ltd (AFEP)?
Revenue at AECI Ltd is growing −2.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AECI Ltd (AFEP)?
Earnings per share at AECI Ltd are growing +27.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does AECI Ltd (AFEP) generate?
The free cash flow of AECI Ltd is 1.3B ZAR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does AECI Ltd (AFEP) carry?
The net debt of AECI Ltd is 32.0M ZAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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