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Alexander Forbes Group (AFH) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · ZA · Market cap 9.2B ZAC

AF Alexander Forbes Group AFH · JSE
PriceR7.25
Fair ValueR4.25
Upside-41.4%
Quality61/100
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Healthy Growth
Solidly profitable · 13.4% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
0.08% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (10/14)
Moderate moat 57/100
Evidence: High Range R3.19 – R5.31 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026

From 2 valuation models · updated 24 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from R4.35 to R4.25 (−2.3%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +0.5% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 41% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R5.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

R9.17 R2.89 Fair Value R4.25 Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R2.89 – R9.17 · fair‑value band R3.19 – R5.31 · the R7.25 price screens above the R4.25 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

Alexander Forbes Group (AFH) currently trades at R7.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R4.25, implying the stock looks roughly 41.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Alexander Forbes Group generated revenue of 5.9B ZAR at a net margin of 16.0%. Revenue grew 9.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 1.2B ZAR. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from R3.19 (bear case) to R5.31 (bull case); at R7.25, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -15% fair-value upside, at -41%, AFH screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
P/B Multiple R1.93 R2.58 R3.22 55
NCAV (Graham) R1.52 R2.03 R3.03 50
All 2 models by family
Multiples
P/B Multiple R1.93 R2.58 R3.22 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R1.52 R2.03 R3.03 50

Widest divergence: Multiples (R2.58) versus Asset-Based (R2.03). Highest evidence: P/B Multiple (55).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 6.3B ZAC
Revenue growth (YoY) +12.5%
Net margin 13.4%
Return on equity 19.3%
Free cash flow 6.7B ZAC FY2026
P/E ratio 12.9
More key figures
Operating margin 17.6%
EPS (TTM) R0.5600
Dividend yield 0.1%
EPS growth (YoY) -26.4%
Net cash 1.2B ZAC FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 59
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 1
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 75
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 77
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 30
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 32
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 60
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Alexander Forbes Group Holdings Limited, a financial services company, provides employee benefits, retirement and healthcare consulting, investment, and wealth management solutions to corporate clients and individuals in South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Jersey, the Channel Islands, and Nigeria.

Full company description

Alexander Forbes Group Holdings Limited, a financial services company, provides employee benefits, retirement and healthcare consulting, investment, and wealth management solutions to corporate clients and individuals in South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Jersey, the Channel Islands, and Nigeria. It offers solutions for individuals, including preservation funds, local and global unit trusts, tax-free saving accounts, wills and estates planning, investment planning, retirement navigators, and living and living and retirement annuities, as well as healthcare broking and management solutions. The company also provides solutions for businesses, such as retirement consulting services; platform, investment consulting, and multi-management services; healthcare consulting, group risk, and administration services; umbrella and beneficiary funds; and employee benefit systems. In addition, it offers financial advisory and broking services. The company was formerly known as Alexander Forbes Equity Holdings Proprietary Limited and changed its name to Alexander Forbes Group Holdings Limited in June 2014. Alexander Forbes Group Holdings Limited was founded in 1935 and is headquartered in Sandton, South Africa.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Alexander Forbes Group reported revenue of R6.3B in FY2026 versus R4.2B in FY2022, a compound +10.7%/yr. Reported net income was R841M in FY2026, compounding +14.2%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
6.3B ZAR
Latest YoY
+11.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+12.0%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.3%
Avg. growth/yr (14Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.5%
Revenue +10.7%/yr
FY22 R4.2B
FY23 R4.5B
FY24 R5.1B
FY25 R5.7B
FY26 R6.3B
Net income +14.2%/yr
FY22 R495M
FY23 R704M
FY24 R672M
FY25 R883M
FY26 R841M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026) −0.4 % p.a.
Revenue per share −4.3 pp

of which total revenue −4.2 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.1 pp

EBIT margin +4.2 pp
Tax rate +0.5 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.8 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

AFH screens 41% overvalued. Compare with ORIX Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alexander Forbes Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AFH

Peer Group

Financial Conglomerates · 56 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside −41% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 19% · Top 25%
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 13% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 18% · Above median
Revenue growth 13% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.1% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.10× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Financial Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.39× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.47× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.1× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 7.0× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 10
FUTURE 63 · sector 38
PAST 77 · sector 32
HEALTH 95 · sector 84
DIVIDEND 2 · sector 41

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Financial Conglomerates stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).

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Yuanta Financial Holding 2885 66.70 TWD 35.75 TWD -46%
China Galaxy Securities Co 601881 ¥12.94 ¥18.92 +46%
Guosen Securities Co 002736 ¥10.34 ¥17.96 +74%
CNPC Capital Company 000617 ¥6.80 ¥5.78 -15%
Aditya Birla Capital Limited ABCAPITAL ₹399.25 ₹176.15 -56%
Freedom Holding FRHC $152.69 $32.75 -79%
Voya Financial, Inc VOYA $98.49 $76.48 -22%
Guangzhou Yuexiu Capital Holdings 000987 ¥7.77 ¥9.27 +19%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Alexander Forbes Group (AFH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R4.25 versus a price of R7.25, about −41% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AFH?
Our model-based fair value for Alexander Forbes Group is R4.25 (as of Jul 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is R7.25.
What is the quality score of AFH?
Alexander Forbes Group has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Alexander Forbes Group (AFH)?
Alexander Forbes Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.9B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Jul 17, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of AFH?
The net profit margin of Alexander Forbes Group is about 16.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 16.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Alexander Forbes Group pay a dividend?
Alexander Forbes Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.07% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 17, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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