Alexander Forbes Group (AFH) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · ZA · Market cap 9.2B ZAC
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from R4.35 to R4.25 (−2.3%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +0.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 41% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R5.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R2.89 – R9.17 · fair‑value band R3.19 – R5.31 · the R7.25 price screens above the R4.25 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Alexander Forbes Group (AFH) currently trades at R7.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R4.25, implying the stock looks roughly 41.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Alexander Forbes Group generated revenue of 5.9B ZAR at a net margin of 16.0%. Revenue grew 9.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 1.2B ZAR. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R3.19 (bear case) to R5.31 (bull case); at R7.25, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -15% fair-value upside, at -41%, AFH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (R2.58) versus Asset-Based (R2.03). Highest evidence: P/B Multiple (55).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Alexander Forbes Group Holdings Limited, a financial services company, provides employee benefits, retirement and healthcare consulting, investment, and wealth management solutions to corporate clients and individuals in South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Jersey, the Channel Islands, and Nigeria.
Full company description
Alexander Forbes Group Holdings Limited, a financial services company, provides employee benefits, retirement and healthcare consulting, investment, and wealth management solutions to corporate clients and individuals in South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Jersey, the Channel Islands, and Nigeria. It offers solutions for individuals, including preservation funds, local and global unit trusts, tax-free saving accounts, wills and estates planning, investment planning, retirement navigators, and living and living and retirement annuities, as well as healthcare broking and management solutions. The company also provides solutions for businesses, such as retirement consulting services; platform, investment consulting, and multi-management services; healthcare consulting, group risk, and administration services; umbrella and beneficiary funds; and employee benefit systems. In addition, it offers financial advisory and broking services. The company was formerly known as Alexander Forbes Equity Holdings Proprietary Limited and changed its name to Alexander Forbes Group Holdings Limited in June 2014. Alexander Forbes Group Holdings Limited was founded in 1935 and is headquartered in Sandton, South Africa.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Alexander Forbes Group reported revenue of R6.3B in FY2026 versus R4.2B in FY2022, a compound +10.7%/yr. Reported net income was R841M in FY2026, compounding +14.2%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue −4.2 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.1 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
AFH screens 41% overvalued. Compare with ORIX Corporation →
Peer Group
Financial Conglomerates · 56 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Financial Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Financial Conglomerates stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORIX Corporation IX | $40.31 | $35.05 | -13% |
| Bajaj Finserv Ltd BAJAJFINSV | ₹2,065 | ₹682.29 | -67% |
| Yuanta Financial Holding 2885 | 66.70 TWD | 35.75 TWD | -46% |
| China Galaxy Securities Co 601881 | ¥12.94 | ¥18.92 | +46% |
| Guosen Securities Co 002736 | ¥10.34 | ¥17.96 | +74% |
| CNPC Capital Company 000617 | ¥6.80 | ¥5.78 | -15% |
| Aditya Birla Capital Limited ABCAPITAL | ₹399.25 | ₹176.15 | -56% |
| Freedom Holding FRHC | $152.69 | $32.75 | -79% |
| Voya Financial, Inc VOYA | $98.49 | $76.48 | -22% |
| Guangzhou Yuexiu Capital Holdings 000987 | ¥7.77 | ¥9.27 | +19% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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