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Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd (AFH) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd ZAR 2.58, price ZAR 7.59, upside -66.0%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · ZA · ISIN ZAE000191516

AF Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd

AFH · JSE

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value R2.58 · Strongly overvalued (−66%)
!Quality 61/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +9.3 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 13.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·7.51% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (11/14)
!Moderate moat 57/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

R9.33 R2.94 Fair Value R2.58 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R2.94 – R9.33 · fair‑value band R1.93 – R3.22 · the R7.59 price screens above the R2.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Alexander Forbes Group Holdings Limited, a financial services company, provides employee benefits, retirement and healthcare consulting, investment, and wealth management solutions to corporate clients and individuals in South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Jersey, the Channel Islands, and Nigeria.

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Alexander Forbes Group Holdings Limited, a financial services company, provides employee benefits, retirement and healthcare consulting, investment, and wealth management solutions to corporate clients and individuals in South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Jersey, the Channel Islands, and Nigeria. It offers solutions for individuals, including preservation funds, local and global unit trusts, tax-free saving accounts, wills and estates planning, investment planning, retirement navigators, and living and living and retirement annuities, as well as healthcare broking and management solutions. The company also provides solutions for businesses, such as retirement consulting services; platform, investment consulting, and multi-management services; healthcare consulting, group risk, and administration services; umbrella and beneficiary funds; and employee benefit systems. In addition, it offers financial advisory and broking services. The company was formerly known as Alexander Forbes Equity Holdings Proprietary Limited and changed its name to Alexander Forbes Group Holdings Limited in June 2014. Alexander Forbes Group Holdings Limited was founded in 1935 and is headquartered in Sandton, South Africa.

Stock analysis

Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd (AFH) currently trades at R7.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R2.58, implying the stock looks roughly 194.2% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 24 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: R1.93 (bear) to R3.22 (bull), the price of R7.59 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd reported revenue of 6.3B ZAR in FY2026 versus 4.2B ZAR in FY2022, a compound +10.7%/yr. Reported net income was 841M ZAR in FY2026, compounding +14.2%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap 10.0B ZAC · P/E ratio 13.6 · P/S ratio 1.81 · EPS (TTM) R0.5600 · Dividend yield 7.5% · Net margin 13.3% · Return on equity 19.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −66%, AFH screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear R1.93 Fair Value R2.58 Bull R3.22
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
P/B Multiple R1.93 R2.58 R3.22 55
NCAV (Graham) R1.52 R2.03 R3.03 54
All 2 models by family
Multiples
P/B Multiple R1.93 R2.58 R3.22 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R1.52 R2.03 R3.03 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 59
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 1
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 75
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 76
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 45
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 44
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 60
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.6% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+28.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.21% vs 1%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 16%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

AFH screens 194% overvalued. Compare with ORIX Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Financial Conglomerates · 57 stocks

Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside −66% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 19% · Top 25%
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 13% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 18% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 13% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 7.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.10× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Financial Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.59× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 1.60× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.1× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 7.7× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 7
FUTURE (revenue growth)63 · sector 39
PAST (return on equity)77 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)95 · sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 54

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd · Fair Value
R2.58 −194%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AFH

Frequently asked questions

Is Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd (AFH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R2.58 versus a price of R7.59, about −66% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AFH?
Our model-based fair value for Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd is R2.58 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R7.59.
What is the quality score of AFH?
Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd (AFH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R2.58 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario R1.93, optimistic scenario R3.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R2.58, about −66% upside versus a price of R7.59 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R1.93, optimistic scenario R3.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd (AFH)?
Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.3B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd pay a dividend?
Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.51% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd (AFH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd it is R2.58 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R7.59. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AFH trades above its calculated fair value: price R7.59, fair value R2.58, a gap of about −66% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AFH?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R7.59); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R2.58). For Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd the two are R5.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd worth?
The market values Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd at about 10.0B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R7.59; our models calculate a fair value of R2.58 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AFH?
Our models span a range for Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd: cautious scenario R1.93, base R2.58, optimistic R3.22 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R7.59). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AFH?
Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R2.58 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.6, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 7.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd (AFH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 19.3%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AFH from its 52-week high?
Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd trades at R7.59, about 14% below its 52-week high of R8.80 and 17% above the low of R6.50 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R2.58 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value ORIX Corporation, Bajaj Finserv Ltd, Yuanta Financial Holding, China Galaxy Securities Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R7.59, calculated fair value R2.58 (−66%), Quality Score 61/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AFH calculated?
We run Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R2.58, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd (AFH)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was R7.59. Our model-based fair value is R2.58, about −66% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R3.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd (AFH) come from?
Earnings per share at Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd grew −0.4 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −4.3 %, EBIT margin +4.2 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd (AFH)?
The market capitalisation of Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd is 10.0B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd (AFH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd is 1.81 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd (AFH)?
Earnings per share at Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd are R0.5600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd (AFH)?
The dividend yield of Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd is 7.5% (payout 102%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd (AFH)?
The net margin of Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd is 13.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd (AFH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd is 19.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd (AFH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd is 0.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd (AFH)?
The operating margin of Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd is 17.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd (AFH)?
Revenue at Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd is growing +12.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd (AFH)?
Earnings per share at Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd are growing −26.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd (AFH) generate?
The free cash flow of Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd is 6.7B ZAC (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd (AFH) hold?
Alexander Forbes Grp Hldg Ltd holds more cash than debt, 1.2B ZAC net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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