Afry AB (AFRY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Afry AB SEK 154, price SEK 104, upside +49.0%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 93.99 – kr 249.99 · fair‑value band kr 115.64 – kr 210.27 · the kr 103.50 price screens below the kr 154.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Afry AB provides engineering, design, and advisory services for the infrastructure, industry, and energy sectors in the Nordics, North America, South America, Asia, rest of Europe, and internationally. It operates through Energy, Industry, and Transportation & Places segments.
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Afry AB provides engineering, design, and advisory services for the infrastructure, industry, and energy sectors in the Nordics, North America, South America, Asia, rest of Europe, and internationally. It operates through Energy, Industry, and Transportation & Places segments. The company offers architecture and design services; automation and manufacturing solutions; automotive and mobility services; building solutions for airports, culture and sports facilities, high security facilities, hospitals, healthcare and research facilities, hotels and restaurants, housing and industrial facilities, offices, retail properties, schools and academic facilities, and stations and terminals; defense technology systems; digital solutions and information technology services; and engineering and consulting services for energy and power applications. It also provides sustainable and environmental solutions; services for food, life science, and pharmaceutical industries; management consulting services; solutions for processing industries, including mining and metals, food and beverage, pulp and paper, and chemical industries, as well as biorefining and biobased solutions; product development services; project management services; transport infrastructure services; solutions for water management; and consulting services and software products. The company was formerly known as ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) and changed its name to Afry AB in June 2021. Afry AB was founded in 1895 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Afry AB (AFRY) currently trades at kr 103.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 154.18, implying the stock looks roughly 32.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 286.78 per share, and 18 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 103.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 77.95, and 6 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 115.64 (bear) to kr 210.27 (bull), the price of kr 103.50 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Afry AB reported revenue of 25.8B SEK in FY2025 versus 20.1B SEK in FY2021, a compound +6.4%/yr. Reported net income was 800M SEK in FY2025, compounding −8.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 11.7B SEK (≈ $1.2B) · P/E ratio 14.8 · P/S ratio 0.46 · EPS (TTM) kr 6.98 · Dividend yield 5.8% · Net margin 3.1% · Return on equity 6.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at 49%, AFRY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 115.64Fair Value kr 154.18Bull kr 210.27
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 0.7169 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.66/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.1% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+2.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−3% vs 1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.4% a year for the price and +1.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (22 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 836 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside+49% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6% · Below median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.28× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)14.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.92× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Afry AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AFRY
Frequently asked questions
Is Afry AB (AFRY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 154.18 versus a price of kr 103.50, about +49% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AFRY?
Our model-based fair value for Afry AB is kr 154.18 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 103.50.
What is the quality score of AFRY?
Afry AB has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Afry AB (AFRY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 154.18 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 115.64, optimistic scenario kr 210.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Afry AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 154.18, about +49% upside versus a price of kr 103.50 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 115.64, optimistic scenario kr 210.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Afry AB (AFRY)?
Afry AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 25.2B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Afry AB pay a dividend?
Afry AB currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.80% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Afry AB (AFRY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Afry AB would have to grow free cash flow by -6.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AFRY use?
Our models discount Afry AB at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.94, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Afry AB that is -6.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Afry AB (AFRY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Afry AB grew +6.3 % a year. The price currently implies -6.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Afry AB (AFRY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Afry AB (-6.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Afry AB (AFRY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 18.18 %: that much free cash flow Afry AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Afry AB (AFRY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Afry AB it is kr 154.18 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 103.50. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Afry AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AFRY trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 103.50, fair value kr 154.18, a gap of about +49% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AFRY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 103.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 154.18). For Afry AB the two are kr 50.68 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Afry AB worth?
The market values Afry AB at about 11.7B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 103.50; our models calculate a fair value of kr 154.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AFRY?
Our models span a range for Afry AB: cautious scenario kr 115.64, base kr 154.18, optimistic kr 210.27 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 103.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AFRY?
Afry AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 154.18 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 0.9, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 7.5.
What is the PEG ratio of AFRY?
The PEG ratio of Afry AB is 1.15 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Afry AB (AFRY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Afry AB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 6.3%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AFRY from its 52-week high?
Afry AB trades at kr 103.50, about 37% below its 52-week high of kr 164.72 and 4% above the low of kr 99.70 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 154.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Afry AB?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Afry AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 103.50, calculated fair value kr 154.18 (+49%), Quality Score 58/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AFRY calculated?
We run Afry AB through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 154.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Afry AB currently trades 49 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Afry AB (AFRY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was kr 103.50. Our model-based fair value is kr 154.18, about +49% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Afry AB right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 115.64). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (kr 115.64 to kr 210.27) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Afry AB (AFRY) come from?
Earnings per share at Afry AB grew +3.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.8 %, EBIT margin −2.7 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Afry AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Afry AB (AFRY)?
The market capitalisation of Afry AB is 11.7B SEK (≈ $1.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Afry AB (AFRY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Afry AB is 0.46 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Afry AB (AFRY)?
Earnings per share at Afry AB are kr 6.98 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Afry AB (AFRY)?
The dividend yield of Afry AB is 5.8% (payout 86.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Afry AB (AFRY)?
The net margin of Afry AB is 3.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Afry AB (AFRY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Afry AB is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Afry AB (AFRY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Afry AB is 6.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Afry AB (AFRY)?
The operating margin of Afry AB is 5.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Afry AB (AFRY)?
Revenue at Afry AB is growing −2.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Afry AB (AFRY)?
Earnings per share at Afry AB are growing +0.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Afry AB (AFRY) carry?
The net debt of Afry AB is 5.2B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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