AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of AG Anadolu Group Holding stock TRY 33.58, price TRY 24.70, upside +35.9%, quality 25 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value 30%+ above price?Yes
Quality 50+?No
In an uptrend?Yes
Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with oneYes, for free
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 2.08 TRY – 44.82 TRY · fair‑value band 22.98 TRY – 48.43 TRY · the 24.70 TRY price screens below the 33.58 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 27, 2026.
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AG Anadolu Grubu Holding A.S., together with its subsidiaries, operates in the retail market in Turkey and internationally. The company operates through Beer, Soft Drinks, Migros, Automotive, Agriculture, Energy, Industry, and Other segments.
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It is involved in the production, bottling, distribution, and sales of beer, carbonated, and non-carbonated beverages; sales of food, beverage, and durable goods; distribution and sale of Coca-Cola products; production and sales of Isuzu branded commercial vehicles; wholesale and retail sale of electricity and its capacity; and production and transmission of electricity, and establishment and operation of distribution facilities, as well as IT, internet, and e-commerce service activities.
The company also engages in import, distribution, and marketing of Kia motor vehicles and motor vehicle renting; production of industrial engines, sale of tractors, and manufacturing of boats; production of writing instruments under Adel, Johann Faber, and Faber Castell brand names; car rental service activities; insurance agency activities; purchase, sale, and rental of real estate; and purchase and sale of spare parts.
In addition, it is involved in online food retailing; e-money legislation; media activities; logistics activities; electric vehicles charging service activities; packaged food production; marketing and distribution company of Anadolu Efes; production, distribution, and sale of fresh fruit; and production and sale of fruit juice concentrate and puree, as well as fresh fruit.
The company was formerly known as Yazicilar Holding A.S. and changed its name to AG Anadolu Grubu Holding A.S. in December 2017. AG Anadolu Grubu Holding A.S. was founded in 1950 and is based in Istanbul, Turkey.
Stock analysis
AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL) currently trades at 24.70 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 33.58 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 26.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 39.55 TRY per share, and 6 of the 12 models we run sit above the 24.70 TRY price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 16.60 TRY, and 6 of the 12 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 22.98 TRY (bear) to 48.43 TRY (bull), the price of 24.70 TRY sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
AG Anadolu Group Holding reported revenue of 707B TRY in FY2025 versus 82.7B TRY in FY2021, a compound +71.0%/yr. Reported net income was 2.5B TRY in FY2025, compounding +18.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 70.2B TRY (≈ $1.4B) Small · P/E ratio 12.7 · P/S ratio 0.08 · EPS (TTM) 1.94 TRY · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 0.6% · Return on equity 6.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 34 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at 36%, AGHOL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear22.98 TRYFair Value 33.58 TRYBull48.43 TRY
Price 24.70 TRY · Upside +35.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.03 TRY per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Growth DCF31.78 TRY49.06 TRY70.27 TRY77
Residual Income27.03 TRY23.81 TRY22.17 TRY76
Owner Earnings30.42 TRY49.41 TRY77.17 TRY74
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings30.42 TRY49.41 TRY77.17 TRY74
5Y P/E Exit23.31 TRY36.41 TRY51.45 TRY70
10Y P/E Exit27.16 TRY39.50 TRY56.97 TRY63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd7.00 TRY41.01 TRY57.09 TRY63
Lynch FV11.62 TRY16.60 TRY21.58 TRY61
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM1.53 TRY2.31 TRY2.79 TRY69
DDM Multi-Stage1.53 TRY2.30 TRY2.50 TRY67
Multiples
P/E Multiple16.21 TRY21.61 TRY27.01 TRY63
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)14.93 TRY22.62 TRY28.27 TRY54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF31.78 TRY49.06 TRY70.27 TRY77
Rev-Margin DCF24.79 TRY39.55 TRY60.07 TRY71
Economic Profit
Residual Income27.03 TRY23.81 TRY22.17 TRY76
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+58.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+62.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+58.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TRY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TRY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−20.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−22.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 5%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−13.2%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Turkey: IMF forecast 19.3% a year to 2030, 28.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −27.3% a year for the price.
Compare AG Anadolu Group Holding with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 361 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score25 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+35.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.5% · Above median
Return on assets2.9% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)4.7% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)5.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.54× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)12.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.62× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AG Anadolu Group Holding Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AGHOL
Frequently asked questions
Is AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 33.58 TRY versus a price of 24.70 TRY, about +36% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AGHOL?
Our model-based fair value for AG Anadolu Group Holding is 33.58 TRY (as of Oct 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 24.70 TRY.
What is the quality score of AGHOL?
AG Anadolu Group Holding has a Quality Score of 25/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 33.58 TRY (as of Oct 27, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario 22.98 TRY, optimistic scenario 48.43 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AG Anadolu Group Holding stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 33.58 TRY, about +36% upside versus a price of 24.70 TRY (undervalued). Cautious scenario 22.98 TRY, optimistic scenario 48.43 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
AG Anadolu Group Holding reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 724B TRY (latest available figure, as of Oct 27, 2026).
Does AG Anadolu Group Holding pay a dividend?
AG Anadolu Group Holding currently shows a dividend yield of 2.83% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AG Anadolu Group Holding would have to grow free cash flow by -13.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +62.7 % per year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AGHOL use?
Our models discount AG Anadolu Group Holding at 15.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AG Anadolu Group Holding that is -13.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at AG Anadolu Group Holding grew +62.7 % a year. The price currently implies -13.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AG Anadolu Group Holding (-13.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 45.60 %: that much free cash flow AG Anadolu Group Holding produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AG Anadolu Group Holding it is 33.58 TRY per share (as of Oct 27, 2026), against a price of 24.70 TRY. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AG Anadolu Group Holding stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, AGHOL trades below its calculated fair value: price 24.70 TRY, fair value 33.58 TRY, a gap of about +36% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AGHOL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (24.70 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (33.58 TRY). For AG Anadolu Group Holding the two are 8.88 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AG Anadolu Group Holding worth?
The market values AG Anadolu Group Holding at about 70.2B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 27, 2026). Per share that is 24.70 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 33.58 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AGHOL?
Our models span a range for AG Anadolu Group Holding: cautious scenario 22.98 TRY, base 33.58 TRY, optimistic 48.43 TRY per share (as of Oct 27, 2026, price 24.70 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AGHOL?
AG Anadolu Group Holding trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.7 (as of Oct 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 33.58 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 7.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
Balance-sheet figures for AG Anadolu Group Holding (as of Oct 27, 2026): return on equity 6.5%, debt of 0.54 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 25/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AGHOL from its 52-week high?
AG Anadolu Group Holding trades at 24.70 TRY, about 31% below its 52-week high of 36.05 TRY and at the low of 24.70 TRY (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 33.58 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AG Anadolu Group Holding?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, Swire Pacific Limited, CK Hutchison Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AG Anadolu Group Holding stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 27, 2026: price 24.70 TRY, calculated fair value 33.58 TRY (+36%), Quality Score 25/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AGHOL calculated?
We run AG Anadolu Group Holding through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 33.58 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. AG Anadolu Group Holding currently trades 26 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was 24.70 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 33.58 TRY, about +36% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AG Anadolu Group Holding right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (25/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (22.98 TRY to 48.43 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of AG Anadolu Group Holding
How large is the market capitalisation of AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
The market capitalisation of AG Anadolu Group Holding is 70.2B TRY (≈ $1.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AG Anadolu Group Holding is 0.08 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
Earnings per share at AG Anadolu Group Holding are 1.94 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
The dividend yield of AG Anadolu Group Holding is 2.8% (payout 36.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
The net margin of AG Anadolu Group Holding is 0.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AG Anadolu Group Holding is 6.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AG Anadolu Group Holding is 7.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
The operating margin of AG Anadolu Group Holding is 5.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
Revenue at AG Anadolu Group Holding is growing +2.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +58.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
Earnings per share at AG Anadolu Group Holding are growing +117% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL) carry?
The net debt of AG Anadolu Group Holding is 39.5B TRY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 27, 2026