AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what AG Anadolu Group Holding is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 2.03 TRY – 44.82 TRY · fair‑value band 38.43 TRY – 81.18 TRY · the 34.20 TRY price screens below the 58.14 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
AG Anadolu Grubu Holding A.S., together with its subsidiaries, operates in the retail market in Turkey and internationally. The company operates through Beer, Soft Drinks, Migros, Automotive, Agriculture, Energy, Industry, and Other segments.
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AG Anadolu Grubu Holding A.S., together with its subsidiaries, operates in the retail market in Turkey and internationally. The company operates through Beer, Soft Drinks, Migros, Automotive, Agriculture, Energy, Industry, and Other segments. It is involved in the production, bottling, distribution, and sales of beer, carbonated, and non-carbonated beverages; sales of food, beverage, and durable goods; distribution and sale of Coca-Cola products; production and sales of Isuzu branded commercial vehicles; wholesale and retail sale of electricity and its capacity; and production and transmission of electricity, and establishment and operation of distribution facilities, as well as IT, internet, and e-commerce service activities. The company also engages in import, distribution, and marketing of Kia motor vehicles and motor vehicle renting; production of industrial engines, sale of tractors, and manufacturing of boats; production of writing instruments under Adel, Johann Faber, and Faber Castell brand names; car rental service activities; insurance agency activities; purchase, sale, and rental of real estate; and purchase and sale of spare parts. In addition, it is involved in online food retailing; e-money legislation; media activities; logistics activities; electric vehicles charging service activities; packaged food production; marketing and distribution company of Anadolu Efes; production, distribution, and sale of fresh fruit; and production and sale of fruit juice concentrate and puree, as well as fresh fruit. The company was formerly known as Yazicilar Holding A.S. and changed its name to AG Anadolu Grubu Holding A.S. in December 2017. AG Anadolu Grubu Holding A.S. was founded in 1950 and is based in Istanbul, Turkey.
Stock analysis
AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL) currently trades at 34.20 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 58.14 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 41.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 338.12 TRY per share, and 7 of the 12 models we run sit above the 34.20 TRY price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 17.49 TRY, and 5 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 38.43 TRY (bear) to 81.18 TRY (bull), the price of 34.20 TRY sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
AG Anadolu Group Holding reported revenue of 707B TRY in FY2025 versus 82.7B TRY in FY2021, a compound +71.0%/yr. Reported net income was 2.5B TRY in FY2025, compounding +18.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 83.3B TRY (≈ $1.7B) · P/S ratio 0.12 · EPS (TTM) −1.39 TRY · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 0.4% · Return on equity 6.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6% · Operating margin 2.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at 70%, AGHOL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 38.43 TRYFair Value 58.14 TRYBull 81.18 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+58.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+62.7%
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+58.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TRY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TRY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−20.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−22.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 5%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−8.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare AG Anadolu Group Holding with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 377 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score25 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−30% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.54× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AG Anadolu Group Holding Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AGHOL
Frequently asked questions
Is AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 58.14 TRY versus a price of 34.20 TRY, about +70% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AGHOL?
Our model-based fair value for AG Anadolu Group Holding is 58.14 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 34.20 TRY.
What is the quality score of AGHOL?
AG Anadolu Group Holding has a Quality Score of 25/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 58.14 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario 38.43 TRY, optimistic scenario 81.18 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AG Anadolu Group Holding stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 58.14 TRY, about +70% upside versus a price of 34.20 TRY (undervalued). Cautious scenario 38.43 TRY, optimistic scenario 81.18 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
AG Anadolu Group Holding reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 718B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does AG Anadolu Group Holding pay a dividend?
AG Anadolu Group Holding currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.04% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AG Anadolu Group Holding would have to grow free cash flow by -8.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +62.7 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AGHOL use?
Our models discount AG Anadolu Group Holding at 15.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AG Anadolu Group Holding that is -8.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at AG Anadolu Group Holding grew +62.7 % a year. The price currently implies -8.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AG Anadolu Group Holding (-8.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 32.93 %: that much free cash flow AG Anadolu Group Holding produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AG Anadolu Group Holding it is 58.14 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 34.20 TRY. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AG Anadolu Group Holding stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, AGHOL trades below its calculated fair value: price 34.20 TRY, fair value 58.14 TRY, a gap of about +70% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AGHOL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (34.20 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (58.14 TRY). For AG Anadolu Group Holding the two are 23.94 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AG Anadolu Group Holding worth?
The market values AG Anadolu Group Holding at about 83.3B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 34.20 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 58.14 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AGHOL?
Our models span a range for AG Anadolu Group Holding: cautious scenario 38.43 TRY, base 58.14 TRY, optimistic 81.18 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 34.20 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
Balance-sheet figures for AG Anadolu Group Holding (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 6.7%, debt of 0.54 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 25/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AGHOL from its 52-week high?
AG Anadolu Group Holding trades at 34.20 TRY, about 8% below its 52-week high of 37.01 TRY and 46% above the low of 23.41 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 58.14 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AG Anadolu Group Holding?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ITOCHU Corporation, 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AG Anadolu Group Holding stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 34.20 TRY, calculated fair value 58.14 TRY (+70%), Quality Score 25/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AGHOL calculated?
We run AG Anadolu Group Holding through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 58.14 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. AG Anadolu Group Holding currently trades 70 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with AG Anadolu Group Holding right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (25/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (38.43 TRY). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (38.43 TRY to 81.18 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of AG Anadolu Group Holding
How large is the market capitalisation of AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
The market capitalisation of AG Anadolu Group Holding is 83.3B TRY (≈ $1.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AG Anadolu Group Holding is 0.12 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
Earnings per share at AG Anadolu Group Holding are −1.39 TRY. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
The dividend yield of AG Anadolu Group Holding is 2.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
The net margin of AG Anadolu Group Holding is 0.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AG Anadolu Group Holding is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AG Anadolu Group Holding is 7.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
The operating margin of AG Anadolu Group Holding is 2.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
Revenue at AG Anadolu Group Holding is growing +6.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +58.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL)?
Earnings per share at AG Anadolu Group Holding are growing +143% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does AG Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL) carry?
The net debt of AG Anadolu Group Holding is 39.5B TRY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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