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Algoma Central Corporation (AGMJF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Algoma Central Corporation $21.02, price $16.47, upside +27.6%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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AC
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Algoma Central Corporation
AGMJF · USSpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.
✓Fair value $21.02 · Undervalued (+27.6%)
!Quality 46/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +6.9 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 21.6% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!4.9% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Narrow moat 43/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.34 – $17.67 · fair‑value band $16.85 – $38.53 · the $16.47 price screens below the $21.02 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Algoma Central Corporation owns and operates a fleet of dry and liquid bulk carriers activities in Canada. It operates through five segments: Domestic Dry-Bulk, Product Tankers, Ocean Self-Unloaders, Global Short Sea Shipping, and Corporate.
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Algoma Central Corporation owns and operates a fleet of dry and liquid bulk carriers activities in Canada. It operates through five segments: Domestic Dry-Bulk, Product Tankers, Ocean Self-Unloaders, Global Short Sea Shipping, and Corporate. The company operates dry-bulk carriers for industrial sectors, including producers of iron and steel, aggregate, salt, and cement and building materials, as well as agricultural product distributors, as well as fleet consists of ten product tankers; and engages in marine operations. It also provides cargo transportation services. In addition, the company operates ocean self-unloading vessels; global fleets, including fleet of specialized cement carriers, short sea mini-bulkers, and handy-size bulk carriers; and provides specialized equipment or services on niche marine transportation markets. Further, it offers third-party management services, and other administrative services, as well as engages in real estate rental operations. The company was formerly known as Algoma Central Railway and changed its name to Algoma Central Corporation in 1990. Algoma Central Corporation was incorporated in 1899 and is headquartered in Saint Catharines, Canada.
Stock analysis
Algoma Central Corporation (AGMJF) currently trades at $16.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.02, implying the stock looks roughly 21.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $43.64 per share, and 8 of the 15 models we run sit above the $16.47 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $4.88, and 7 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $16.85 (bear) to $38.53 (bull), the price of $16.47 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Algoma Central Corporation reported revenue of C$760M in FY2025 versus C$599M in FY2021, a compound +6.2%/yr. Reported net income was C$143M in FY2025, compounding +14.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $668M · P/E ratio 5.5 · P/S ratio 1.04 · EPS (TTM) $2.97 · Dividend yield 4.9% · Net margin 18.8% · Return on equity 17.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 57% fair-value upside, at 28%, AGMJF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $16.85
Fair Value $21.02
Bull $38.53
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.63 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$16.16
$18.86
$24.57
76
EPV
$3.52
$4.88
$6.01
73
ROIC Compounder
$3.52
$4.88
$6.01
72
All 15 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$16.82
$44.54
$58.20
65
PEG = 1.0
$8.59
$12.27
$15.95
57
EPV
$3.52
$4.88
$6.01
73
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$4.26
$7.63
$10.56
68
DDM Multi-Stage
$4.26
$6.21
$8.01
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$38.95
$51.93
$64.91
63
P/S Multiple
$19.74
$26.32
$32.90
58
P/B Multiple
$31.53
$42.04
$52.55
55
EV/EBIT
$11.21
$17.11
$23.00
65
EV/EBITDA
$21.54
$30.87
$40.21
67
EV/Revenue
$6.15
$11.56
$16.97
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$8.72
$11.68
$17.43
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$16.16
$18.86
$24.57
76
ROIC Compounder
$3.52
$4.88
$6.01
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$30.55
$43.64
$56.73
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
46/100
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77
Profitability
46
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
24
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
46
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
32
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
76
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
69
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
93
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
90
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
45/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.3% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +7.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.26.4% vs 16.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 11%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 56% above its own trend.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Marine Shipping · 225 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Marine Shipping stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited ADANIPORTS | ₹1,738 | ₹1,041 | −40% |
| COSCO SHIPPING Holdings 601919 | ¥16.37 | ¥40.37 | +147% |
| Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, HLAG | €141.20 | €88.00 | −38% |
| Shanghai International Port (Group) Co 600018 | ¥5.36 | ¥6.41 | +20% |
| SITC International Holdings 1308 | HK$48.54 | HK$64.78 | +33% |
| HMM Co 011200 | 21,500 KRW | 33,795 KRW | +57% |
| Wan Hai Lines Ltd 2615 | 115.50 TWD | 191.50 TWD | +66% |
| Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company 601018 | ¥3.40 | ¥5.58 | +64% |
| Qingdao Port International Co 601298 | ¥9.75 | ¥15.59 | +60% |
| China Merchants Port Holdings 0144 | HK$16.89 | HK$24.25 | +44% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Algoma Central Corporation (AGMJF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $21.02 versus a price of $16.47, about +28% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AGMJF?
Our model-based fair value for Algoma Central Corporation is $21.02 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.47.
What is the quality score of AGMJF?
Algoma Central Corporation has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Algoma Central Corporation (AGMJF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $21.02 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $16.85, optimistic scenario $38.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Algoma Central Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $21.02, about +28% upside versus a price of $16.47 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $16.85, optimistic scenario $38.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Algoma Central Corporation (AGMJF)?
Algoma Central Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$782M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Algoma Central Corporation pay a dividend?
Algoma Central Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.92% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Algoma Central Corporation (AGMJF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Algoma Central Corporation it is $21.02 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $16.47. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Algoma Central Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AGMJF trades below its calculated fair value: price $16.47, fair value $21.02, a gap of about +28% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AGMJF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.47); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($21.02). For Algoma Central Corporation the two are $4.55 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Algoma Central Corporation worth?
The market values Algoma Central Corporation at about $668M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $16.47; our models calculate a fair value of $21.02 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AGMJF?
Our models span a range for Algoma Central Corporation: cautious scenario $16.85, base $21.02, optimistic $38.53 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $16.47). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AGMJF?
Algoma Central Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $21.02 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 5.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Algoma Central Corporation (AGMJF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Algoma Central Corporation (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 17.9%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AGMJF from its 52-week high?
Algoma Central Corporation trades at $16.47, about 7% below its 52-week high of $17.67 and 39% above the low of $11.82 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $21.02 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Algoma Central Corporation?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft,, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Algoma Central Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $16.47, calculated fair value $21.02 (+28%), Quality Score 46/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AGMJF calculated?
We run Algoma Central Corporation through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $21.02, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Algoma Central Corporation currently trades 22 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Algoma Central Corporation (AGMJF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $16.47. Our model-based fair value is $21.02, about +28% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Algoma Central Corporation right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($16.85). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($16.85 to $38.53) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Algoma Central Corporation (AGMJF) come from?
Earnings per share at Algoma Central Corporation grew +12.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.5 %, EBIT margin +4.3 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Algoma Central Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Algoma Central Corporation (AGMJF)?
The market capitalisation of Algoma Central Corporation is $668M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Algoma Central Corporation (AGMJF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Algoma Central Corporation is 1.04 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Algoma Central Corporation (AGMJF)?
Earnings per share at Algoma Central Corporation are $2.97 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Algoma Central Corporation (AGMJF)?
The dividend yield of Algoma Central Corporation is 4.9% (payout 27.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Algoma Central Corporation (AGMJF)?
The net margin of Algoma Central Corporation is 18.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Algoma Central Corporation (AGMJF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Algoma Central Corporation is 17.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Algoma Central Corporation (AGMJF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Algoma Central Corporation is 6.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Algoma Central Corporation (AGMJF)?
The operating margin of Algoma Central Corporation is −22.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Algoma Central Corporation (AGMJF)?
Revenue at Algoma Central Corporation is growing +19.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Algoma Central Corporation (AGMJF)?
Earnings per share at Algoma Central Corporation are growing +83.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Algoma Central Corporation (AGMJF) generate?
The free cash flow of Algoma Central Corporation is −C$124M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Algoma Central Corporation (AGMJF) carry?
The net debt of Algoma Central Corporation is C$499M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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