Adecoagro S.A (AGRO) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $1.4B

Below-average quality, screening 60% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (12/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
• The model range is unusually wide ($8.11 to $22.14). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $5.90 – $15.18 · fair‑value band $8.11 – $22.14 · the $9.45 price screens below the $15.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

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Analysis

Adecoagro S.A (AGRO) currently trades at $9.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.12, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 12/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Adecoagro S.A generated revenue of $1.5B at a net margin of 0.9%. Revenue grew 22.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.1%. Net debt stands at $1.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $8.11 (bear case) to $22.14 (bull case); at $9.45, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 102% fair-value upside, at 60%, AGRO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($7.69) versus Multiples ($0.9200). Highest evidence: Rev-Margin DCF (74).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Adecoagro S.A., engages in agricultural and agro-industrial activities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. The company operates through three segments: Sugar, Ethanol and Energy, Fertilizers and Farming.

Full company description

Adecoagro S.A., engages in agricultural and agro-industrial activities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. The company operates through three segments: Sugar, Ethanol and Energy, Fertilizers and Farming. The company is involved in the production of a range of agricultural commodities, including soybean, corn, wheat, peanut, sunflower, cotton, and others; planting, harvesting, processing, and marketing of white, brown, and rough rice; genetic development of seeds; and production of dairy products, such as raw milk, ultra-high temperature milk, powdered milk, semi-hard cheese, cream, cream and cocoa flavored milk, chocolate and fluid milk, and other dairy products. It also generates electricity through burning biogas extracted from effluents produced by its dairy cattle; and provides grain warehousing and conditioning, and handling and drying services. In addition, the company cultivates andharvests sugarcane to produce ethanol, sugar, and bioelectricity; and sells carbon credits. Further, it engages in land transformation activities, such as the acquisition of farmlands or businesses with underdeveloped or underutilized agricultural land; and the implementation of production technology and agricultural practices. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. As of May 1, 2025, Adecoagro S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Tether Investments, S.A. De C.V.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Adecoagro S.A reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$8.3M in FY2025.

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Peer Group

Farm Products · 288 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.