Adecoagro SA (AGRO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Adecoagro SA stock $8.47, price $9.00, that is 5.9% below the price, quality 15 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 9 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.90 – $15.18 · fair‑value band $6.24 – $17.61 · the $9.00 price screens above the $8.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Adecoagro S.A., engages in agricultural and agro-industrial activities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. The company operates through three segments: Sugar, Ethanol and Energy, Fertilizers and Farming.
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The company is involved in the production of a range of agricultural commodities, including soybean, corn, wheat, peanut, sunflower, cotton, and others; planting, harvesting, processing, and marketing of white, brown, and rough rice; genetic development of seeds; and production of dairy products, such as raw milk, ultra-high temperature milk, powdered milk, semi-hard cheese, cream, cream and cocoa flavored milk, chocolate and fluid milk, and other dairy products.
It also generates electricity through burning biogas extracted from effluents produced by its dairy cattle; and provides grain warehousing and conditioning, and handling and drying services.
In addition, the company cultivates andharvests sugarcane to produce ethanol, sugar, and bioelectricity; and sells carbon credits.
Further, it engages in land transformation activities, such as the acquisition of farmlands or businesses with underdeveloped or underutilized agricultural land; and the implementation of production technology and agricultural practices.
The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. As of May 1, 2025, Adecoagro S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Tether Investments, S.A. De C.V.
Stock analysis
Adecoagro SA (AGRO) currently trades at $9.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.47, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 6.3%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $12.68 per share, and 3 of the 9 models we run sit above the $9.00 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $3.05, and 6 of the 9 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $6.24 (bear) to $17.61 (bull), the price of $9.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 15/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Adecoagro SA reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$8.3M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.4B · P/E ratio 23.1 · P/S ratio 0.67 · EPS (TTM) $0.3900 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 3.0% · Return on equity 3.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −6%, AGRO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$6.24Fair Value $8.47Bull$17.61
Price $9.00 · Downside -5.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3344 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$1.05$4.98$10.3673
Growth DCF$1.04$4.71$9.5372
5Y EBITDA Exit$5.73$14.88$25.8171
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$1.05$4.98$10.3673
5Y Revenue Exitn/a$1.31$4.6269
5Y EBITDA Exit$5.73$14.88$25.8171
10Y Revenue Exitn/a$1.99$5.3564
10Y EBITDA Exit$3.67$10.64$20.3564
Multiples
EV/EBITDA$6.80$12.68$18.5764
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$4.86$6.51$9.7154
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$1.04$4.71$9.5372
Rev-Margin DCFn/a$1.39$4.6669
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
SaleIvo SarjanovicDirector1,163 shares at $13.03$15,154Apr 21, 2026
SaleDreyfus Kyril Robert Leonid LouisDirector1,163 shares at $13.03$15,154Apr 21, 2026
SaleBentancor Oscar Alejandro LeonDirector1,163 shares at $13.03$15,154Apr 21, 2026
SaleMariano BoschChief Executive Officer100,000 shares at $14.50$1.5MMar 19, 2026
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.59/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.8% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
23.1% (2020) → 4.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+76.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +72.5% a year for the price and +7.1% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 291 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score15 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−5.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.7% · Below median
Return on assets−0.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)3.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)17.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)39.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.83× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Adecoagro SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AGRO
Frequently asked questions
Is Adecoagro SA (AGRO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.47 versus a price of $9.00, about 6% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AGRO?
Our model-based fair value for Adecoagro SA is $8.47 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.00.
What is the quality score of AGRO?
Adecoagro SA has a Quality Score of 15/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.47 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.24, optimistic scenario $17.61. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Adecoagro SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.47, about 6% lower versus a price of $9.00 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $6.24, optimistic scenario $17.61. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
Adecoagro SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Adecoagro SA pay a dividend?
Adecoagro SA currently shows a dividend yield of 2.98% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Adecoagro SA (AGRO) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Adecoagro SA has a dividend yield of 3.0%. The last ex-dividend date was May 4, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2022. Our assessment: Safety not assessed. Payout ratio and cash coverage are not available, so we do not judge how safe this dividend is.
What growth is priced into Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Adecoagro SA would have to grow free cash flow by +76.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.8 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AGRO use?
Our models discount Adecoagro SA at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Adecoagro SA that is +76.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Adecoagro SA (AGRO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Adecoagro SA grew +11.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +76.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Adecoagro SA (AGRO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Adecoagro SA (+76.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.31 %: that much free cash flow Adecoagro SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Adecoagro SA it is $8.47 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $9.00. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is Adecoagro SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, AGRO trades above its calculated fair value: price $9.00, fair value $8.47, a gap of about −6% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AGRO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.47). For Adecoagro SA the two are $0.5340 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Adecoagro SA worth?
The market values Adecoagro SA at about $1.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $9.00; our models calculate a fair value of $8.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AGRO?
Our models span a range for Adecoagro SA: cautious scenario $6.24, base $8.47, optimistic $17.61 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $9.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AGRO?
Adecoagro SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.1 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $8.47 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2016 to 2024), reported earnings: 10.5. Other multiples: PEG 76.0.
What is the PEG ratio of AGRO?
The PEG ratio of Adecoagro SA is 75.97 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Adecoagro SA (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 3.7%, debt of 0.83 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 15/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AGRO from its 52-week high?
Adecoagro SA trades at $9.00, about 41% below its 52-week high of $15.18 and 27% above the low of $7.07 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.47 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Adecoagro SA?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Muyuan Foods Group, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Tyson Foods, Inc, Bunge Global SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Adecoagro SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $9.00, calculated fair value $8.47 (−6%), Quality Score 15/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AGRO calculated?
We run Adecoagro SA through 9 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $8.47 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Adecoagro SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $9.00. Our model-based fair value is $8.47, about 6% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Adecoagro SA right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($6.24 to $17.61). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Adecoagro SA (AGRO) come from?
Earnings per share at Adecoagro SA grew +46.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.5 %, EBIT margin −1.5 %, tax rate +6.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +27.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Adecoagro SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
The market capitalisation of Adecoagro SA is $1.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Adecoagro SA is 0.67 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
Earnings per share at Adecoagro SA are $0.3900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
The dividend yield of Adecoagro SA is 3.0% (payout 68.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
The net margin of Adecoagro SA is 3.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Adecoagro SA is 3.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Adecoagro SA is 6.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
The operating margin of Adecoagro SA is 17.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
Revenue at Adecoagro SA is growing +39.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
Earnings per share at Adecoagro SA are growing +55.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Adecoagro SA (AGRO) carry?
The net debt of Adecoagro SA is $1.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 76.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026