Adecoagro SA (AGRO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Adecoagro SA $8.47, price $10.85, upside -22.0%, quality 12 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.90 – $15.18 · fair‑value band $6.24 – $17.61 · the $10.85 price screens above the $8.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Adecoagro S.A., engages in agricultural and agro-industrial activities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. The company operates through three segments: Sugar, Ethanol and Energy, Fertilizers and Farming.
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Adecoagro S.A., engages in agricultural and agro-industrial activities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. The company operates through three segments: Sugar, Ethanol and Energy, Fertilizers and Farming. The company is involved in the production of a range of agricultural commodities, including soybean, corn, wheat, peanut, sunflower, cotton, and others; planting, harvesting, processing, and marketing of white, brown, and rough rice; genetic development of seeds; and production of dairy products, such as raw milk, ultra-high temperature milk, powdered milk, semi-hard cheese, cream, cream and cocoa flavored milk, chocolate and fluid milk, and other dairy products. It also generates electricity through burning biogas extracted from effluents produced by its dairy cattle; and provides grain warehousing and conditioning, and handling and drying services. In addition, the company cultivates andharvests sugarcane to produce ethanol, sugar, and bioelectricity; and sells carbon credits. Further, it engages in land transformation activities, such as the acquisition of farmlands or businesses with underdeveloped or underutilized agricultural land; and the implementation of production technology and agricultural practices. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. As of May 1, 2025, Adecoagro S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Tether Investments, S.A. De C.V.
Stock analysis
Adecoagro SA (AGRO) currently trades at $10.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.47, implying the stock looks roughly 28.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $7.69 per share, and 3 of the 12 models we run sit above the $10.85 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $0.9200, and 9 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $6.24 (bear) to $17.61 (bull), the price of $10.85 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 12/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Adecoagro SA reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$8.3M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.4B · P/E ratio 542.5 · P/S ratio 0.93 · EPS (TTM) $0.0200 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin −0.6% · Return on equity 1.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −22%, AGRO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $6.24Fair Value $8.47Bull $17.61
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0146 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.59/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.8% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
23.1% (2020) → 4.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+73.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +69.2% a year for the price and +3.3% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 296 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score12 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−22% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth23% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.83× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Adecoagro SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AGRO
Frequently asked questions
Is Adecoagro SA (AGRO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.47 versus a price of $10.85, about −22% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AGRO?
Our model-based fair value for Adecoagro SA is $8.47 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.85.
What is the quality score of AGRO?
Adecoagro SA has a Quality Score of 12/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.47 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.24, optimistic scenario $17.61. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Adecoagro SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.47, about −22% upside versus a price of $10.85 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $6.24, optimistic scenario $17.61. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
Adecoagro SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Adecoagro SA pay a dividend?
Adecoagro SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.98% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Adecoagro SA would have to grow free cash flow by +73.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.8 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AGRO use?
Our models discount Adecoagro SA at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Adecoagro SA that is +73.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Adecoagro SA (AGRO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Adecoagro SA grew +11.8 % a year. The price currently implies +73.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Adecoagro SA (AGRO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Adecoagro SA (+73.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.37 %: that much free cash flow Adecoagro SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Adecoagro SA it is $8.47 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $10.85. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Adecoagro SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, AGRO trades above its calculated fair value: price $10.85, fair value $8.47, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AGRO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.85); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.47). For Adecoagro SA the two are $2.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Adecoagro SA worth?
The market values Adecoagro SA at about $1.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $10.85; our models calculate a fair value of $8.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AGRO?
Our models span a range for Adecoagro SA: cautious scenario $6.24, base $8.47, optimistic $17.61 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $10.85). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of AGRO?
The PEG ratio of Adecoagro SA is 75.97 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Adecoagro SA (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 1.1%, debt of 0.83 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 12/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AGRO from its 52-week high?
Adecoagro SA trades at $10.85, about 29% below its 52-week high of $15.18 and 54% above the low of $7.07 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.47 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Adecoagro SA?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Muyuan Foods Group, Bunge Global SA, Tyson Foods, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Adecoagro SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $10.85, calculated fair value $8.47 (−22%), Quality Score 12/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AGRO calculated?
We run Adecoagro SA through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $8.47, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Adecoagro SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $10.85. Our model-based fair value is $8.47, about −22% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Adecoagro SA right now?
Weak quality (12/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($6.24 to $17.61). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Adecoagro SA (AGRO) come from?
Earnings per share at Adecoagro SA grew +46.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.5 %, EBIT margin −1.5 %, tax rate +6.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +27.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Adecoagro SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
The market capitalisation of Adecoagro SA is $1.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Adecoagro SA is 542.5. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Adecoagro SA is 0.93 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
Earnings per share at Adecoagro SA are $0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 542.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
The dividend yield of Adecoagro SA is 3.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
The net margin of Adecoagro SA is −0.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Adecoagro SA is 1.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Adecoagro SA is 6.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
The operating margin of Adecoagro SA is 0.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
Revenue at Adecoagro SA is growing +22.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Adecoagro SA (AGRO)?
Earnings per share at Adecoagro SA are growing +55.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Adecoagro SA (AGRO) carry?
The net debt of Adecoagro SA is $1.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 76.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026