Grupo Rotoplas S.A. (AGUA) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · MX · Market cap 6.3B MXN
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from 10.57 MXN to 7.52 MXN (−28.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +1.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 43% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (7.52 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 9.96 MXN – 30.67 MXN · fair‑value band 4.20 MXN – 7.52 MXN · the 13.21 MXN price screens above the 7.52 MXN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Grupo Rotoplas S.A. (AGUA) currently trades at 13.21 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 7.52 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 43.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Grupo Rotoplas S.A. generated revenue of 11.1B MXN at a net margin of 0.4%. Revenue grew 1.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.8%. Net debt stands at 3.7B MXN. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 4.20 MXN (bear case) to 7.52 MXN (bull case); at 13.21 MXN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -33% fair-value upside, at -43%, AGUA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (17.50 MXN) versus Earnings-Based (0.4700 MXN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Grupo Rotoplas S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, purchases, sells, and installs plastic containers and accessories for water storage, conduction, and improvement solutions in Mexico, Argentina, the United States and internationally. It operates through Individual Solutions and Comprehensive Solutions segments.
Full company description
Grupo Rotoplas S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, purchases, sells, and installs plastic containers and accessories for water storage, conduction, and improvement solutions in Mexico, Argentina, the United States and internationally. It operates through Individual Solutions and Comprehensive Solutions segments. The company offers storage solutions, water tanks, cisterns, rural rainwater collector, urban rain collector, rotoplas accessories, water conditioning device, tamboplas, reservoirs, rainwater collection system, tank accessories. It provides agroindustry solutions, such as storage tank, hoppers, mother tank, feeders and drinkers, closed vertical tank, indoor water tanks outdoor water tanks, horizontal water tanks, firefighting water tanks, banjo accessories, bilayer tank, wet nurses, feeders and drinkers, and closed vertical tanks. The company also provides hydraulic pipe tubes, connections and tools and hydraulic installation used in single-family, social interest and residential homes, tall buildings, industries, boats, and others; and treatment solutions, such as biodigester, wet bath, system for agricultural irrigation type family orchard, self-cleaning biodigester, and septic tank, as well as heating products, that includes ecoshower electric shower and hot springs. Further, it provides sewage treatment, purification, desalination, processed water, and integrated water solutions. Additionally, the company engages in real estate services and residual water treatment activities; digital research and development services; and operates electronic trade platform, as well as grants financial support. The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Grupo Rotoplas S.A. reported revenue of 10.7B MXN in FY2025 versus 10.9B MXN in FY2021, a compound −0.5%/yr. Reported net income was 12.8M MXN in FY2025, compounding −55.2%/yr from FY2021.
AGUA screens 43% overvalued. Compare with Trane Technologies plc →
Peer Group
Building Products & Equipment · 247 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Building Products & Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trane Technologies plc TT | $469.98 | $212.34 | -55% |
| Johnson Controls International plc JCI | $142.81 | $45.65 | -68% |
| Carrier Global Corporation CARR | $68.61 | $17.35 | -75% |
| Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A SGO | €76.62 | €101.60 | +33% |
| Geberit AG GEBN | CHF 523.20 | CHF 307.66 | -41% |
| Lennox International Inc LII | $543.93 | $363.09 | -33% |
| Kingspan Group KRX | €87.30 | €70.76 | -19% |
| Masco Corporation MAS | $78.04 | $54.36 | -30% |
| PT Impack Pratama Industri Tbk, IMPC | 1,420 IDR | 179.76 IDR | -87% |
| NIBE Industrier AB NIBEB | kr 36.03 | kr 25.37 | -30% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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