Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV (AGUA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV MXN 3.89, price MXN 14.09, upside -72.4%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Grupo Rotoplas S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, purchases, sells, and installs plastic containers and accessories for water storage, conduction, and improvement solutions in Mexico, Argentina, the United States and internationally. It operates through Individual Solutions and Comprehensive Solutions segments.
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Grupo Rotoplas S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, purchases, sells, and installs plastic containers and accessories for water storage, conduction, and improvement solutions in Mexico, Argentina, the United States and internationally. It operates through Individual Solutions and Comprehensive Solutions segments. The company offers storage solutions, water tanks, cisterns, rural rainwater collector, urban rain collector, rotoplas accessories, water conditioning device, tamboplas, reservoirs, rainwater collection system, tank accessories. It provides agroindustry solutions, such as storage tank, hoppers, mother tank, feeders and drinkers, closed vertical tank, indoor water tanks outdoor water tanks, horizontal water tanks, firefighting water tanks, banjo accessories, bilayer tank, wet nurses, feeders and drinkers, and closed vertical tanks. The company also provides hydraulic pipe tubes, connections and tools and hydraulic installation used in single-family, social interest and residential homes, tall buildings, industries, boats, and others; and treatment solutions, such as biodigester, wet bath, system for agricultural irrigation type family orchard, self-cleaning biodigester, and septic tank, as well as heating products, that includes ecoshower electric shower and hot springs. Further, it provides sewage treatment, purification, desalination, processed water, and integrated water solutions. Additionally, the company engages in real estate services and residual water treatment activities; digital research and development services; and operates electronic trade platform, as well as grants financial support. The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.
Stock analysis
Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV (AGUA) currently trades at 14.09 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 3.89 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 262.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 19.55 MXN per share, and 10 of the 23 models we run sit above the 14.09 MXN price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 0.4700 MXN, and 13 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 2.71 MXN (bear) to 4.85 MXN (bull), the price of 14.09 MXN sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV reported revenue of 10.7B MXN in FY2025 versus 10.9B MXN in FY2021, a compound −0.5%/yr. Reported net income was 12.8M MXN in FY2025, compounding −55.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 6.8B MXN (≈ $388M) · P/E ratio 67.1 · P/S ratio 0.08 · EPS (TTM) 0.2100 MXN · Net margin 0.1% · Return on equity 0.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.7% · Operating margin 6.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −72%, AGUA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 2.71 MXNFair Value 3.89 MXNBull 4.85 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.1542 MXN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.5% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in MXN ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in MXN: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−47.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−47.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 6%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Mexico: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.1% a year for the price and +2.1% for the forecasts.
Compare Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Products & Equipment · 253 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−72% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Below median
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.72× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)67.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.20× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.61× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF0.4× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA8.2× · Cheaper than median
PEG2.96× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)5· sector 11
PAST (return on equity)3· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)64· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 42
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AGUA
Frequently asked questions
Is Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV (AGUA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 3.89 MXN versus a price of 14.09 MXN, about −72% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AGUA?
Our model-based fair value for Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV is 3.89 MXN (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 14.09 MXN.
What is the quality score of AGUA?
Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV (AGUA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 3.89 MXN (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2.71 MXN, optimistic scenario 4.85 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 3.89 MXN, about −72% upside versus a price of 14.09 MXN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 2.71 MXN, optimistic scenario 4.85 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV (AGUA)?
Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 11.1B MXN (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV (AGUA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV would have to grow free cash flow by +2.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AGUA use?
Our models discount Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.33, country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV that is +2.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV (AGUA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV grew +4.5 % a year. The price currently implies +2.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV (AGUA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV (+2.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV (AGUA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.98 %: that much free cash flow Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV (AGUA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV it is 3.89 MXN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 14.09 MXN. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AGUA trades above its calculated fair value: price 14.09 MXN, fair value 3.89 MXN, a gap of about −72% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AGUA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (14.09 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (3.89 MXN). For Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV the two are 10.20 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV worth?
The market values Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV at about 6.8B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 14.09 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 3.89 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AGUA?
Our models span a range for Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV: cautious scenario 2.71 MXN, base 3.89 MXN, optimistic 4.85 MXN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 14.09 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AGUA?
Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 67.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 3.89 MXN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.0, P/B 1.2, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 8.2.
What is the PEG ratio of AGUA?
The PEG ratio of Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV is 2.96 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV (AGUA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 0.8%, debt of 0.72 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AGUA from its 52-week high?
Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV trades at 14.09 MXN, about 2% below its 52-week high of 14.31 MXN and 37% above the low of 10.27 MXN (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 3.89 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Trane Technologies plc, Johnson Controls International plc, Carrier Global Corporation, Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 14.09 MXN, calculated fair value 3.89 MXN (−72%), Quality Score 56/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AGUA calculated?
We run Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 3.89 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV (AGUA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 14.09 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 3.89 MXN, about −72% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (4.85 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV
How large is the market capitalisation of Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV (AGUA)?
The market capitalisation of Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV is 6.8B MXN (≈ $388M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV (AGUA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV is 0.08 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV (AGUA)?
Earnings per share at Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV are 0.2100 MXN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 67.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV (AGUA)?
The net margin of Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV is 0.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV (AGUA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV is 0.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV (AGUA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV is 8.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV (AGUA)?
The operating margin of Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV is 6.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV (AGUA)?
Revenue at Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV is growing +1.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV (AGUA)?
Earnings per share at Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV are growing +360% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV (AGUA) carry?
The net debt of Grupo Rotoplas SAB de CV is 3.7B MXN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026