Argan, Inc (AGX) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $8.7B
Argan, Inc
AGX · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $151.07 to $150.44 (−0.4%) since Jul 14, 2026. Share price −10.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 75% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 71/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($309.09). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($118.77 to $309.09). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $29.95 – $798.55 · fair‑value band $118.77 – $309.09 · the $590.87 price screens above the $150.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Argan, Inc (AGX) currently trades at $590.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $150.44, implying the stock looks roughly 74.5% overvalued today. We read business quality at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Argan, Inc generated revenue of $1.0B at a net margin of 15.5%. Revenue grew 50.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 38.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $333M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $118.77 (bear case) to $309.09 (bull case); at $590.87, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 207% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -75%, AGX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($396.39) versus Asset-Based ($22.09). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Argan, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides engineering, procurement, construction, commissioning, maintenance, project development, and technical consulting services to the power generation market in the United States, Republic of Ireland, and the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Power, Industrial, and Teledata.
Full company description
Argan, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides engineering, procurement, construction, commissioning, maintenance, project development, and technical consulting services to the power generation market in the United States, Republic of Ireland, and the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Power, Industrial, and Teledata. Its Power segment offers engineering, procurement, and construction, as well as designing, building, and commissioning of large-scale energy projects; and design, construction, project management, start-up, and operation, as well as provides technical consulting services; and turbine, boiler, and large rotating equipment. This segment serves independent power producers, public utilities, power plant equipment suppliers, and other commercial firms. The company's Industrial segment provides field services that support new plant construction and additions; maintenance turnarounds; shutdowns and emergency mobilizations for industrial plants; and fabricates, delivers, and installation of metal components, such as piping systems and pressure vessels. Its Teledata segment offers trenchless directional boring and excavation for underground communication and power networks; aerial cabling; high and low voltage electric lines; and private area outdoor lighting systems, as well as installs buried cable. It also provides structured cabling, terminations, and connectivity that offers the physical transport for high-speed data, voice, video, and security networks; and utility construction services and comprehensive technology wiring solutions. This segment serves electricity cooperative, state and federal government agencies, counties and municipalities, and technology-oriented government contracting firms, as well as customers in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. Argan, Inc. was incorporated in 1961 and is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Argan, Inc reported revenue of $945M in FY2026 versus $509M in FY2022, a compound +16.7%/yr. Reported net income was $138M in FY2026, compounding +37.8%/yr from FY2022.
AGX screens 75% overvalued. Compare with Larsen & Toubro Limited →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Do Options Traders Know Something About Argan Stock We Don't?
- Argan Rides the Data Center and Power Construction Demand Supercycle
- Is AGX Stock Worth Buying After Its 92% Year-to-Date Price Surge?
Peer Group
Engineering & Construction · 831 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹3,815 | ₹1,994 | -48% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 346,000 KRW | 268,779 KRW | -22% |
| Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co 000720 | 99,000 KRW | 63,993 KRW | -35% |
| United Integrated Services Co 2404 | 1,250 TWD | 925.62 TWD | -26% |
| Samsung E&A Co 028050 | 42,550 KRW | 44,840 KRW | +5% |
| Rail Vikas Nigam Limited RVNL | ₹232.67 | ₹61.46 | -74% |
| Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co 047040 | 16,240 KRW | 6,507 KRW | -60% |
| NBCC (India) Limited NBCC | ₹102.36 | ₹48.22 | -53% |
| Cemindia Projects Limited CEMPRO | ₹1,330 | ₹730.69 | -45% |
| KEPCO Engineering & Construction Company 052690 | 92,700 KRW | 20,172 KRW | -78% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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