Argan Inc (AGX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Argan Inc stock $320, price $261, upside +22.4%, quality 73 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $29.86 – $796.28 · fair‑value band $223.81 – $415.63 · the $261.21 price screens below the $319.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 4 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Argan, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides engineering, procurement, construction, commissioning, maintenance, project development, and technical consulting services to the power generation market in the United States, Republic of Ireland, and the United Kingdom.
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It operates through three segments: Power, Industrial, and Teledata.
Its Power segment offers engineering, procurement, and construction, as well as designing, building, and commissioning of large-scale energy projects; and design, construction, project management, start-up, and operation, as well as provides technical consulting services; and turbine, boiler, and large rotating equipment.
This segment serves independent power producers, public utilities, power plant equipment suppliers, and other commercial firms.
The company's Industrial segment provides field services that support new plant construction and additions; maintenance turnarounds; shutdowns and emergency mobilizations for industrial plants; and fabricates, delivers, and installation of metal components, such as piping systems and pressure vessels.
Its Teledata segment offers trenchless directional boring and excavation for underground communication and power networks; aerial cabling; high and low voltage electric lines; and private area outdoor lighting systems, as well as installs buried cable.
It also provides structured cabling, terminations, and connectivity that offers the physical transport for high-speed data, voice, video, and security networks; and utility construction services and comprehensive technology wiring solutions.
This segment serves electricity cooperative, state and federal government agencies, counties and municipalities, and technology-oriented government contracting firms, as well as customers in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States.
Argan, Inc. was incorporated in 1961 and is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia.
Stock analysis
Argan Inc (AGX) currently trades at $261.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $319.73, implying the stock looks roughly 18% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $429.90 per share, and 11 of the 26 models we run sit above the $261.21 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $100.90, and 15 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $223.81 (bear) to $415.63 (bull), the price of $261.21 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Argan Inc reported revenue of $945M in FY2026 versus $509M in FY2022, a compound +16.7%/yr. Reported net income was $138M in FY2026, compounding +37.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $4.6B Mid · P/E ratio 20.7 · P/S ratio 3.89 · EPS (TTM) $12.59 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 15.1% · Return on equity 39.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 72 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 67% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −42% fair-value upside, at 22%, AGX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$223.81Fair Value $319.73Bull$415.63
Price $261.21 · Upside +22.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($8.12 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Plus 12 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.6% a year
Revenue growth 38 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+32.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+31.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.37.8% vs 14.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 14%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−12.1%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+22.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −14.1% a year for the price and +19.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Debt-free balance sheet with cash reserves supports targeted acquisitions in data networks, yet thin evidence outside financial metrics leaves any durable moat unclear.
Main risk: The loss or delay of projects from one or more of its top Power segment customers could sharply cut revenue and slow backlog conversion.
Bull case: By leveraging its debt-free balance sheet for targeted acquisitions Argan could diversify its customer base and extend into adjacent network services.
Bear case: If key customers award fewer projects to rivals or face permitting delays Argan could experience extended revenue gaps and execution-driven margin erosion.
Argan draws on its debt-free balance sheet and substantial cash reserves to pursue targeted acquisitions that extend its reach in data and communications networks. This complements the main power construction activities amid rising electricity needs from data centers and manufacturing. Does the strategy of selective expansion create more resilient revenue streams over time or mainly add complexity to project execution?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 787 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score73 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+22.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)39.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets11.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)15.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)14.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)61.5% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.8% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)20.7× · Pricier than median
P/B10.00× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)3.89× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)11.3× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Argan Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AGX
Frequently asked questions
Is Argan Inc (AGX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $319.73 versus a price of $261.21, about +22% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AGX?
Our model-based fair value for Argan Inc is $319.73 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $261.21.
What is the quality score of AGX?
Argan Inc has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Argan Inc (AGX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $319.73 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $223.81, optimistic scenario $415.63. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Argan Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $319.73, about +22% upside versus a price of $261.21 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $223.81, optimistic scenario $415.63. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Argan Inc (AGX)?
Argan Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Argan Inc pay a dividend?
Argan Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.77% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Argan Inc (AGX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Argan Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -12.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.2 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AGX use?
Our models discount Argan Inc at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.55, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Argan Inc that is -12.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Argan Inc (AGX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Argan Inc grew +19.2 % a year. The price currently implies -12.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Argan Inc (AGX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Argan Inc (-12.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Argan Inc (AGX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.09 %: that much free cash flow Argan Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Argan Inc (AGX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Argan Inc it is $319.73 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $261.21. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Argan Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, AGX trades below its calculated fair value: price $261.21, fair value $319.73, a gap of about +22% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AGX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($261.21); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($319.73). For Argan Inc the two are $58.52 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Argan Inc worth?
The market values Argan Inc at about $4.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $261.21; our models calculate a fair value of $319.73 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AGX?
Our models span a range for Argan Inc: cautious scenario $223.81, base $319.73, optimistic $415.63 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $261.21). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AGX?
Argan Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $319.73 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 15.9. Other multiples: P/B 10.0, P/S 3.9, EV/EBITDA 23.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Argan Inc (AGX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Argan Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 39.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 73/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AGX from its 52-week high?
Argan Inc trades at $261.21, about 67% below its 52-week high of $796.28 and at the low of $261.21 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $319.73 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Argan Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Larsen & Toubro Limited, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Argan Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $261.21, calculated fair value $319.73 (+22%), Quality Score 73/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AGX calculated?
We run Argan Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $319.73, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Argan Inc currently trades 18% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Argan Inc (AGX)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $261.21. Our model-based fair value is $319.73, about +22% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Argan Inc right now?
Solid quality (73/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($223.81 to $415.63) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Argan Inc (AGX) come from?
Earnings per share at Argan Inc grew +8.2 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.6 %, EBIT margin −4.9 %, tax rate +2.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Argan Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Argan Inc (AGX)?
The market capitalisation of Argan Inc is $4.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Argan Inc (AGX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Argan Inc is 3.89 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Argan Inc (AGX)?
Earnings per share at Argan Inc are $12.59 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Argan Inc (AGX)?
The dividend yield of Argan Inc is 0.8% (payout 15.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Argan Inc (AGX)?
The net margin of Argan Inc is 15.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Argan Inc (AGX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Argan Inc is 39.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Argan Inc (AGX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Argan Inc is 8.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Argan Inc (AGX)?
The operating margin of Argan Inc is 14.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Argan Inc (AGX)?
Revenue at Argan Inc is growing +61.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Argan Inc (AGX)?
Earnings per share at Argan Inc are growing +50.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Argan Inc (AGX) hold?
Argan Inc holds more cash than debt, $333M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026