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AgroGalaxy Participações S.A (AGXY3) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · BR · Market cap R$32.6M

AP AgroGalaxy Participações S.A AGXY3 · SA
PriceR$1.62
Fair ValueR$3.71
Upside+128.8%
Quality24/100
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Mixed Growth
Highly profitable · 70.1% net margin
Negative equity (buybacks among others) · negative free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (4/8)
Narrow moat 33/100
Evidence: Low Range R$1.86 – R$5.62 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026

From 2 valuation models · updated 26 days ago

Share price −8.5% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 129% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (24/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (R$1.86). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The model range is unusually wide (R$1.86 to R$5.62). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

R$175.70 R$1.62 Fair Value R$3.71 Jul 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R$1.62 – R$175.70 · fair‑value band R$1.86 – R$5.62 · the R$1.62 price screens below the R$3.71 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

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Analysis

AgroGalaxy Participações S.A (AGXY3) currently trades at R$1.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$3.71, implying the stock looks roughly 128.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 24/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, AgroGalaxy Participações S.A generated revenue of R$1.8B at a net margin of 70.1%. Revenue declined 63.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -30.6%. Net debt stands at R$1.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from R$1.86 (bear case) to R$5.62 (bull case); at R$1.62, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 76% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -13% fair-value upside, at 129%, AGXY3 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM R$1.74 R$2.91 R$3.77 70
DDM Multi-Stage R$1.74 R$2.76 R$3.13 61
All 2 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R$1.74 R$2.91 R$3.77 70
DDM Multi-Stage R$1.74 R$2.76 R$3.13 61

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) R$1.8B
Revenue growth (YoY) -63.8%
Net margin 70.1%
Return on equity -30.6%
Free cash flow −R$250M FY2024
Operating margin -39.1%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) R$-188.83
EPS growth (YoY) -57.7%
Net debt R$1.7B FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 24/100

Of which business quality 21 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26

Profitability 24
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 15
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 15
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 9
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

AgroGalaxy Participações S.A. engages in the agricultural business in Brazil. It is involved in the retail sale of agricultural Inputs; seed production, origination, storage, and sale of grains; and provision of agricultural services.

Full company description

AgroGalaxy Participações S.A. engages in the agricultural business in Brazil. It is involved in the retail sale of agricultural Inputs; seed production, origination, storage, and sale of grains; and provision of agricultural services. The company also engages in the sale of agricultural machinery and implements; provision of commercial representations, agricultural technical assistance, phytosanitary services, and seed repackaging; shipment and/or receipt of agricultural products on consignment and/or for deposit; and commercialization and export of cereals, such as soybeans and corn. It operates light stores, silos, soybean plants, and processing units. The company was incorporated in 2014 and is based in São Paulo, Brazil.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years

AgroGalaxy Participações S.A reported revenue of R$4.6B in FY2024 versus R$2.6B in FY2020, a compound +15.1%/yr. Reported net income was −R$3.0B in FY2024.

Growth Quality 49/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2024)
R$4.6B
Latest YoY
−50.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−11.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+24.3%
Avg. growth/yr (8Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+36.2%
Revenue +15.1%/yr
FY20 R$2.6B
FY21 R$6.6B
FY22 R$11.6B
FY23 R$9.4B
FY24 R$4.6B
Net income
FY20 R$81.5M
FY21 R$118M
FY22 R$28.0M
FY23 −R$374M
FY24 −R$3.0B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AgroGalaxy Participações S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AGXY3

Peer Group

Agricultural Inputs · 179 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 24 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +129% · Top 25%
Return on assets 14% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 70% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -39% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -64% · Bottom 25%

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 21
FUTURE 0 · sector 37
PAST 0 · sector 24
HEALTH 100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 33

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Agricultural Inputs stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Corteva, Inc CTVA $86.07 $27.81 -68%
Nutrien Ltd NTR C$94.23 C$81.69 -13%
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co 000792 ¥24.93 ¥21.26 -15%
CF Industries Holdings CF $119.19 $161.00 +35%
SABIC Agri-Nutrients Company 2020 122.90 SAR 127.31 SAR +4%
Yara International ASA YAR kr 451.30 kr 67.25 -85%
Yunnan Yuntianhua Co 600096 ¥30.17 ¥42.12 +40%
Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.,Ltd., 000893 ¥42.59 ¥38.01 -11%
Coromandel International Limited COROMANDEL ₹2,034 ₹1,129 -44%
UPL Limited UPL ₹594.75 ₹387.06 -35%

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Frequently asked questions

Is AgroGalaxy Participações S.A (AGXY3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 15, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$3.71 versus a price of R$1.62, about +129% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AGXY3?
Our model-based fair value for AgroGalaxy Participações S.A is R$3.71 (as of Jul 15, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is R$1.62.
What is the quality score of AGXY3?
AgroGalaxy Participações S.A has a Quality Score of 24/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of AgroGalaxy Participações S.A (AGXY3)?
AgroGalaxy Participações S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$1.8B (latest available figure, as of Jul 15, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of AGXY3?
The net profit margin of AgroGalaxy Participações S.A is about 70.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 70.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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