AgroGalaxy Participações S.A (AGXY3) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · BR · Market cap R$32.6M
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Share price −8.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 129% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (24/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (R$1.86). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The model range is unusually wide (R$1.86 to R$5.62). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$1.62 – R$175.70 · fair‑value band R$1.86 – R$5.62 · the R$1.62 price screens below the R$3.71 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
AgroGalaxy Participações S.A (AGXY3) currently trades at R$1.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$3.71, implying the stock looks roughly 128.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 24/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, AgroGalaxy Participações S.A generated revenue of R$1.8B at a net margin of 70.1%. Revenue declined 63.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -30.6%. Net debt stands at R$1.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R$1.86 (bear case) to R$5.62 (bull case); at R$1.62, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 76% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -13% fair-value upside, at 129%, AGXY3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 21 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
AgroGalaxy Participações S.A. engages in the agricultural business in Brazil. It is involved in the retail sale of agricultural Inputs; seed production, origination, storage, and sale of grains; and provision of agricultural services.
Full company description
AgroGalaxy Participações S.A. engages in the agricultural business in Brazil. It is involved in the retail sale of agricultural Inputs; seed production, origination, storage, and sale of grains; and provision of agricultural services. The company also engages in the sale of agricultural machinery and implements; provision of commercial representations, agricultural technical assistance, phytosanitary services, and seed repackaging; shipment and/or receipt of agricultural products on consignment and/or for deposit; and commercialization and export of cereals, such as soybeans and corn. It operates light stores, silos, soybean plants, and processing units. The company was incorporated in 2014 and is based in São Paulo, Brazil.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
AgroGalaxy Participações S.A reported revenue of R$4.6B in FY2024 versus R$2.6B in FY2020, a compound +15.1%/yr. Reported net income was −R$3.0B in FY2024.
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Peer Group
Agricultural Inputs · 179 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Agricultural Inputs stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corteva, Inc CTVA | $86.07 | $27.81 | -68% |
| Nutrien Ltd NTR | C$94.23 | C$81.69 | -13% |
| Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co 000792 | ¥24.93 | ¥21.26 | -15% |
| CF Industries Holdings CF | $119.19 | $161.00 | +35% |
| SABIC Agri-Nutrients Company 2020 | 122.90 SAR | 127.31 SAR | +4% |
| Yara International ASA YAR | kr 451.30 | kr 67.25 | -85% |
| Yunnan Yuntianhua Co 600096 | ¥30.17 | ¥42.12 | +40% |
| Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.,Ltd., 000893 | ¥42.59 | ¥38.01 | -11% |
| Coromandel International Limited COROMANDEL | ₹2,034 | ₹1,129 | -44% |
| UPL Limited UPL | ₹594.75 | ₹387.06 | -35% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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