Ark Mines Ltd (AHK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 5, 2026: fair value of Ark Mines Ltd A$0.45, price A$0.31, upside +45.3%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.1100 – A$0.6800 · fair‑value band A$0.3060 – A$0.5865 · the A$0.3100 price screens below the A$0.4505 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
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Ark Mines Limited engages in the acquisition and exploration of mineral properties in Australia. The company explores for nickel, scandium, cobalt, copper, chromite, manganese, gold, iron, rare earth elements. It focuses on Sandy Mitchell Rare Earth project located in Northern Queensland.
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Ark Mines Limited engages in the acquisition and exploration of mineral properties in Australia. The company explores for nickel, scandium, cobalt, copper, chromite, manganese, gold, iron, rare earth elements. It focuses on Sandy Mitchell Rare Earth project located in Northern Queensland. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
Stock analysis
Ark Mines Ltd (AHK) currently trades at A$0.3100, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.4505, implying the stock looks roughly 31.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of A$1.21 per share, and 12 of the 23 models we run sit above the A$0.3100 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.0800, and 11 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.3060 (bear) to A$0.5865 (bull), the price of A$0.3100 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ark Mines Ltd reported revenue of A$2.0M in FY2026 versus A$0 in FY2022. Reported net income was A$894K in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap A$22.4M (≈ $15.6M) · P/S ratio 11.7 · Net margin 44.6% · Return on equity 12.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −13.2% · Operating margin 33.8% · Revenue (TTM) A$2.0M · Revenue growth (YoY) +191%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 45%, AHK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.3060Fair Value A$0.4505Bull A$0.5865
Price A$0.3100 · Upside +45.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.87/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+566.9%
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.7%
’11
’17
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’20
’23
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−45.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−45.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−597% → 27%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−13.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −16.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 217 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside+36.5% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12.1% · Above median
Return on assets5.9% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)43.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)33.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth190.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.07× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.4505 versus a price of A$0.3100, about +45% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AHK?
Our model-based fair value for Ark Mines Ltd is A$0.4505 (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.3100.
What is the quality score of AHK?
Ark Mines Ltd has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ark Mines Ltd (AHK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.4505 (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.3060, optimistic scenario A$0.5865. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ark Mines Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.4505, about +45% upside versus a price of A$0.3100 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.3060, optimistic scenario A$0.5865. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ark Mines Ltd (AHK)?
Ark Mines Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$2.0M (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ark Mines Ltd (AHK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ark Mines Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -13.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 6 years revenue grew +79.4 % per year. As of Oct 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AHK use?
Our models discount Ark Mines Ltd at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.32, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ark Mines Ltd that is -13.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ark Mines Ltd (AHK) delivered so far?
Over the past 6 years revenue at Ark Mines Ltd grew +79.4 % a year. The price currently implies -13.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ark Mines Ltd (AHK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ark Mines Ltd (-13.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ark Mines Ltd (AHK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.09 %: that much free cash flow Ark Mines Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ark Mines Ltd (AHK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ark Mines Ltd it is A$0.4505 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of A$0.3100. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ark Mines Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, AHK trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.3100, fair value A$0.4505, a gap of about +45% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AHK?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.3100); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.4505). For Ark Mines Ltd the two are A$0.1405 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ark Mines Ltd worth?
The market values Ark Mines Ltd at about A$22.4M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is A$0.3100; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.4505 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AHK?
Our models span a range for Ark Mines Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.3060, base A$0.4505, optimistic A$0.5865 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price A$0.3100). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ark Mines Ltd (AHK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ark Mines Ltd (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity 12.1%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AHK from its 52-week high?
Ark Mines Ltd trades at A$0.3100, about 53% below its 52-week high of A$0.6550 and 63% above the low of A$0.1900 (as of Oct 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.4505 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ark Mines Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ark Mines Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price A$0.3100, calculated fair value A$0.4505 (+45%), Quality Score 60/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AHK calculated?
We run Ark Mines Ltd through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.4505, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Ark Mines Ltd currently trades 31 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ark Mines Ltd (AHK)?
The closing price on Oct 5, 2026 was A$0.3100. Our model-based fair value is A$0.4505, about +45% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ark Mines Ltd right now?
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (A$0.3060 to A$0.5865) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Ark Mines Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Ark Mines Ltd (AHK)?
The market capitalisation of Ark Mines Ltd is A$22.4M (≈ $15.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ark Mines Ltd (AHK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ark Mines Ltd is 11.7 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Ark Mines Ltd (AHK)?
The net margin of Ark Mines Ltd is 44.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ark Mines Ltd (AHK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ark Mines Ltd is 12.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ark Mines Ltd (AHK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ark Mines Ltd is −13.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ark Mines Ltd (AHK)?
The operating margin of Ark Mines Ltd is 33.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ark Mines Ltd (AHK)?
Revenue at Ark Mines Ltd is growing +191% versus a year earlier (3y avg +567%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Ark Mines Ltd (AHK) hold?
Ark Mines Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$3.8M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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