Asahi Kasei Corporation (AHKSF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Asahi Kasei Corporation stock $9.89, price $10.42, that is 5.0% below the price, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 12 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0002 – $11.65 · fair‑value band $5.63 – $14.90 · the $10.42 price screens above the $9.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Asahi Kasei Corporation engages in material, homes, healthcare businesses.
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The company offers Pimel photosensitive polyimide/PBO precursor, a liquid photosensitive material for buffer coating and packaging applications; Sunfort dry film photoresist to form circuit patterns on printed wiring boards; Novacure, a latent curing agent for epoxy resin with storage stability; glass fabric for printed circuit boards; plastic optical fiber; suede products under the Dinamica name; Microza UF and MF industrial membranes and systems; Aciplex membranes, process equipment, and systems for caustic soda production; Hipore, a microporous polyolefin sheet which prevents the anode and cathode from contacting one another; Celgard, a lithium-ion battery separator; Deramic, a lead acid battery separator; photopolymers and platemaking systems; and fiber products under the Bemberg, ROICA, ELTAS, Bemliese, EUTEC, Precisé, SEMIA, smash, PULSHUT, Lastan, Cubit, NanoAct, ECORISE, BioCradle, CMC-Bemliese names.
It also provides cling film, bags and containers, and dishwashing liquid under the Saran Wrap, Ziploc, Cookper, Frosch names; packaging products under the OPS, Suntec, Barrialon, PVDC latex, and Saran names; pharmaceutical and food additives under the Ceolous and Celphere names; and clads and anchors under the Baclad and AR Chemical Setter names.
In addition, the company is involved in the provision of remodeling services; real estate-related operations; offers unit homes and apartment buildings; autoclaved aerated concrete, foundation systems, thermal insulation material, structural systems and components products; prescription drugs in the fields of orthopedics, critical/intensive care, urology, immune system, and central nervous system; enzymes and diagnostic products; and hemodialysis, therapeutic apheresis, and autologous blood-related businesses.
The company was founded in 1931 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Asahi Kasei Corporation (AHKSF) currently trades at $10.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.89, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 5.3%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $14.81 per share, and 4 of the 12 models we run sit above the $10.42 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.74, and 8 of the 12 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $5.63 (bear) to $14.90 (bull), the price of $10.42 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Asahi Kasei Corporation reported revenue of ¥3.1T in FY2026 versus ¥2.5T in FY2022, a compound +5.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥160B in FY2026, compounding −0.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $14.1B Large · P/E ratio 11.3 · P/S ratio 0.58 · EPS (TTM) $0.9200 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 5.2% · Return on equity 9.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at −5%, AHKSF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$5.63Fair Value $9.89Bull$14.90
Price $10.42 · Downside -5.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3999 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.71/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.8% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+17.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.5% vs 4.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 8%
2026 sits 82% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.3% a year for the price and +1.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Pharma expansion with novel antiviral approval offers a potential growth avenue, yet the core materials business shows only modest returns and no standout moat in a commoditized sector.
Main risk: Large-scale expansion of petrochemical production capacity in China could erode margins and force further exits from low-value materials businesses such as MMA monomer, PMMA resin and polyethylene derivatives.
Bull case: By accelerating its pharma pipeline through recent acquisitions and using generative AI to shorten material development cycles, the company could offset materials margin pressure with higher-margin healthcare growth.
Bear case: Persistent Chinese oversupply could trigger repeated portfolio exits in materials while patent cliffs erode pharma contributions leaving the conglomerate with a narrower set of higher-risk businesses.
Asahi Kasei is folding its acquired European pharma assets into a single global therapeutics brand and just received FDA approval for pritelivir, its first novel antiviral for refractory herpes lesions in immunocompromised patients. The move supports the stated goal of scaling healthcare to a sizable revenue contributor by 2030, even as materials and homes continue to dominate operations. Will the pharma expansion create a durable new growth engine or mainly add integration costs and execution risk to the existing portfolio?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 305 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside−5.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.8% · Above median
Return on assets3.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)6.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)9.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.40× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)11.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.06× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)0.71× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)20.3× · Pricier than median
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Is Asahi Kasei Corporation (AHKSF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.89 versus the last price from Oct 23, 2026 of $10.42, about 5% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AHKSF?
Our model-based fair value for Asahi Kasei Corporation is $9.89 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Oct 23, 2026): $10.42.
What is the quality score of AHKSF?
Asahi Kasei Corporation has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Asahi Kasei Corporation (AHKSF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.89 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.63, optimistic scenario $14.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Asahi Kasei Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.89, about 5% lower versus the last price from Oct 23, 2026 of $10.42 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $5.63, optimistic scenario $14.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Asahi Kasei Corporation (AHKSF)?
Asahi Kasei Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥3.2T (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Asahi Kasei Corporation pay a dividend?
Asahi Kasei Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 2.55% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Asahi Kasei Corporation (AHKSF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Asahi Kasei Corporation pays a dividend of $0.265 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.5%. The next ex-dividend date is Mar 30, 2027. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2002. The payout ratio is 35.1% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.97 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Asahi Kasei Corporation (AHKSF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Asahi Kasei Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +10.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.0 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AHKSF use?
Our models discount Asahi Kasei Corporation at 8.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.66, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Asahi Kasei Corporation that is +10.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Asahi Kasei Corporation (AHKSF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Asahi Kasei Corporation grew +8.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +10.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Asahi Kasei Corporation (AHKSF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Asahi Kasei Corporation (+10.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Asahi Kasei Corporation (AHKSF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.93 %: that much free cash flow Asahi Kasei Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Asahi Kasei Corporation (AHKSF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Asahi Kasei Corporation it is $9.89 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $10.42. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Asahi Kasei Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, AHKSF trades above its calculated fair value: price $10.42, fair value $9.89, a gap of about −5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AHKSF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.42); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.89). For Asahi Kasei Corporation the two are $0.5250 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Asahi Kasei Corporation worth?
The market values Asahi Kasei Corporation at about $14.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $10.42; our models calculate a fair value of $9.89 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AHKSF?
Our models span a range for Asahi Kasei Corporation: cautious scenario $5.63, base $9.89, optimistic $14.90 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $10.42). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AHKSF?
Asahi Kasei Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.3 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $9.89 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 5.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Asahi Kasei Corporation (AHKSF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Asahi Kasei Corporation (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 9.8%, debt of 0.40 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AHKSF from its 52-week high?
Asahi Kasei Corporation trades at $10.42, about 11% below its 52-week high of $11.65 and 31% above the low of $7.95 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.89 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Asahi Kasei Corporation?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, Swire Pacific Limited, SGH Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Asahi Kasei Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $10.42, calculated fair value $9.89 (−5%), Quality Score 58/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AHKSF calculated?
We run Asahi Kasei Corporation through 12 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $9.89 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Asahi Kasei Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Asahi Kasei Corporation (AHKSF)?
The latest price we hold is from Oct 23, 2026 and stands at $10.42. Our model-based fair value is $9.89, about 5% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Asahi Kasei Corporation right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($5.63 to $14.90). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Where does the earnings growth of Asahi Kasei Corporation (AHKSF) come from?
Earnings per share at Asahi Kasei Corporation grew +1.1 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.1 %, EBIT margin −2.6 %, tax rate +1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Asahi Kasei Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Asahi Kasei Corporation (AHKSF)?
The market capitalisation of Asahi Kasei Corporation is $14.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Asahi Kasei Corporation (AHKSF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Asahi Kasei Corporation is 0.58 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Asahi Kasei Corporation (AHKSF)?
Earnings per share at Asahi Kasei Corporation are $0.9200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Asahi Kasei Corporation (AHKSF)?
The dividend yield of Asahi Kasei Corporation is 2.5% (payout 28.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Asahi Kasei Corporation (AHKSF)?
The net margin of Asahi Kasei Corporation is 5.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Asahi Kasei Corporation (AHKSF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Asahi Kasei Corporation is 9.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Asahi Kasei Corporation (AHKSF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Asahi Kasei Corporation is 4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Asahi Kasei Corporation (AHKSF)?
The operating margin of Asahi Kasei Corporation is 9.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Asahi Kasei Corporation (AHKSF)?
Revenue at Asahi Kasei Corporation is growing +11.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Asahi Kasei Corporation (AHKSF)?
Earnings per share at Asahi Kasei Corporation are growing +174% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Asahi Kasei Corporation (AHKSF) carry?
The net debt of Asahi Kasei Corporation is ¥638B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 5.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 9, 2026