Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (AHRT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. $4.66, price $5.95, upside -21.7%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.15 – $11.57 · fair‑value band $0.9400 – $6.10 · the $5.95 price screens above the $4.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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AH REALTY TRUST INC is a vertically integrated, self-managed real estate investment trust. With over four decades of experience developing, building, acquiring, and managing high-quality retail, office, and multifamily properties located primarily in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern United States.
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AH REALTY TRUST INC is a vertically integrated, self-managed real estate investment trust. With over four decades of experience developing, building, acquiring, and managing high-quality retail, office, and multifamily properties located primarily in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern United States. The Company also provides general construction and development services to third-party clients, in addition to developing and building properties to be placed in their stabilized portfolio. Founded in 1979 by Daniel A. Hoffler, Armada Hoffler has elected to be taxed as a REIT for U.S. federal income tax purposes. AH REALTY TRUST INC was incorporated in 1979 and is based in Virginia Beach, Virginia.
Stock analysis
Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (AHRT) currently trades at $5.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.66, implying the stock looks roughly 27.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $10.83 per share, and 3 of the 9 models we run sit above the $5.95 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $1.25, and 6 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $0.9400 (bear) to $6.10 (bull), the price of $5.95 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. reported revenue of $285M in FY2025 versus $285M in FY2021, a compound +0.1%/yr. Reported net income was $5.6M in FY2025, compounding −28.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $655M · P/S ratio 2.28 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0800 · Dividend yield 9.4% · Net margin 2.0% · Return on equity 0.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9% · Operating margin 22.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at −22%, AHRT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.9400Fair Value $4.66Bull $6.10
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.61/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−22.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−31.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−31% vs −21%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 28%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 7.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+52.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +48.6% a year for the price.
Compare Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Diversified · 156 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−22% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)23% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)9.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.43× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AHRT
Frequently asked questions
Is Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (AHRT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.66 versus a price of $5.95, about −22% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AHRT?
Our model-based fair value for Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. is $4.66 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.95.
What is the quality score of AHRT?
Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (AHRT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.66 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.9400, optimistic scenario $6.10. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.66, about −22% upside versus a price of $5.95 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.9400, optimistic scenario $6.10. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (AHRT)?
Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $287M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. pay a dividend?
Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.41% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (AHRT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +52.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -5.8 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AHRT use?
Our models discount Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.11, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. that is +52.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (AHRT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. grew -5.8 % a year. The price currently implies +52.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (AHRT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (+52.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (AHRT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.48 %: that much free cash flow Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (AHRT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. it is $4.66 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $5.95. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, AHRT trades above its calculated fair value: price $5.95, fair value $4.66, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AHRT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.66). For Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. the two are $1.29 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. worth?
The market values Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. at about $655M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $5.95; our models calculate a fair value of $4.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AHRT?
Our models span a range for Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc.: cautious scenario $0.9400, base $4.66, optimistic $6.10 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $5.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (AHRT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 0.6%, debt of 2.43 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AHRT from its 52-week high?
Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. trades at $5.95, about 17% below its 52-week high of $7.18 and 16% above the low of $5.15 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc.?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Goodman Group, VICI Properties Inc, W. P. Carey Inc, Charter Hall Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $5.95, calculated fair value $4.66 (−22%), Quality Score 43/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AHRT calculated?
We run Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.66, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (AHRT)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $5.95. Our model-based fair value is $4.66, about −22% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. right now?
Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($0.9400 to $6.10). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (AHRT) come from?
Earnings per share at Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. grew −1.4 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −4.9 %, EBIT margin +12.4 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −7.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (AHRT)?
The market capitalisation of Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. is $655M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (AHRT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. is 2.28 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (AHRT)?
Earnings per share at Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. are $−0.0800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (AHRT)?
The dividend yield of Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. is 9.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (AHRT)?
The net margin of Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. is 2.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (AHRT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. is 0.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (AHRT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. is 2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (AHRT)?
The operating margin of Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. is 22.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (AHRT)?
Revenue at Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. is growing +7.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −14.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. (AHRT) carry?
The net debt of Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. is $1.7B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 23, 2026