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Aurubis AG (AIAGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Aurubis AG $134, price $193, upside -30.4%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Industrials · US · ISIN DE0006766504

AA Aurubis AG logo Broad data Oct 3, 2026

Aurubis AG

AIAGF · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $134.43 · Overvalued (−30.4%)
!Quality 54/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +7.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.5% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!0.8% dividend yield · Token dividend
!Moderate moat 46/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$211.21 $34.34 Fair Value $134.43 Aug 2015 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $34.34 – $211.21 · fair‑value band $125.49 – $151.39 · the $193.15 price screens above the $134.43 fair value. As of Oct 3, 2026.

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Company profile

Aurubis AG processes metal concentrates and recycling materials in Germany. The company engages in processing of scrap metals, organic and inorganic metalbearing recycling raw materials, and industrial residues. It also offers copper cast rods and specialty wires, shapes, bars and profiles, industrial rolled products, and architectural rolled products.

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Aurubis AG processes metal concentrates and recycling materials in Germany. The company engages in processing of scrap metals, organic and inorganic metalbearing recycling raw materials, and industrial residues. It also offers copper cast rods and specialty wires, shapes, bars and profiles, industrial rolled products, and architectural rolled products. In addition, the company produces gold, silver, tin, lead, lead-bismuth alloy, lead-antimony litharge, tellurium metals, and tellurium dioxide. Further, the company engages in the recycling of copper and alloy scrap; printed circuit board and electronic scrap; mixed heavy metal fractions and shredder; residues, slimes, and sludges; preciouse metal recycling material; tin scrap; and copper iron and bimetal scrap. Additionally, it provides sulfuric acid, iron-silicate, smelter intermediates, and selenium, as well as produces various products from purchased copper and copper alloy scrap, electronic scrap, and industrial residues. The company was formerly known as Norddeutsche Affinerie AG and changed its name to Aurubis AG in April 2009. Aurubis AG was incorporated in 1866 and is headquartered in Hamburg, Germany.

Stock analysis

Aurubis AG (AIAGF) currently trades at $193.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $134.43, 30.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $247.64 per share, and 8 of the 16 models we run sit above the $193.15 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $26.99, and 8 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $125.49 (bear) to $151.39 (bull), the price of $193.15 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Aurubis AG reported revenue of €18.2B in FY2025 versus €16.4B in FY2021, a compound +2.6%/yr. Reported net income was €539M in FY2025, compounding −3.2%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $8.4B · P/E ratio 7.9 · P/S ratio 0.23 · EPS (TTM) $24.58 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 3.0% · Return on equity 17.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −57% fair-value upside, at −30%, AIAGF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $125.49 Fair Value $134.43 Bull $151.39
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($22.98 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $129.34 $140.24 $164.98 76
EPV $123.85 $143.95 $161.29 74
ROIC Compounder $123.85 $143.95 $169.21 72
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $94.51 $258.20 $338.63 65
Lynch FV $51.08 $72.96 $94.85 61
PEG = 1.0 $51.08 $72.96 $94.85 57
EPV $123.85 $143.95 $161.29 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $17.54 $34.95 $52.92 67
DDM Multi-Stage $17.54 $26.99 $36.62 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $218.89 $291.86 $364.82 63
P/S Multiple $177.20 $236.27 $295.33 58
P/B Multiple $177.20 $236.27 $295.33 55
EV/EBIT $236.89 $317.00 $397.11 66
EV/EBITDA $238.92 $319.71 $400.49 67
EV/Revenue $168.09 $241.60 $315.12 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $75.84 $101.62 $151.68 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $129.34 $140.24 $164.98 76
ROIC Compounder $123.85 $143.95 $169.21 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $173.35 $247.64 $321.94 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48

Profitability 48
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 27
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 78
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 55
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 18
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 95
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 41/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.2% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+16.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15.7% vs 16.4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

AIAGF screens overvalued: fair value 30% below the price. Compare with ATI Inc →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (86 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Very negative
Recent news coverage is unusually downbeat.

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Values & ESG

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$134.43 −30%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aurubis AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AIAGF

Frequently asked questions

Is Aurubis AG (AIAGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $134.43 versus a price of $193.15, about −30% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AIAGF?
Our model-based fair value for Aurubis AG is $134.43 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $193.15.
What is the quality score of AIAGF?
Aurubis AG has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aurubis AG (AIAGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $134.43 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $125.49, optimistic scenario $151.39. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aurubis AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $134.43, about −30% upside versus a price of $193.15 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $125.49, optimistic scenario $151.39. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aurubis AG (AIAGF)?
Aurubis AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €20.4B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Aurubis AG pay a dividend?
Aurubis AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.83% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Aurubis AG (AIAGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aurubis AG it is $134.43 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $193.15. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aurubis AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, AIAGF trades above its calculated fair value: price $193.15, fair value $134.43, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AIAGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($193.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($134.43). For Aurubis AG the two are $58.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aurubis AG worth?
The market values Aurubis AG at about $8.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $193.15; our models calculate a fair value of $134.43 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AIAGF?
Our models span a range for Aurubis AG: cautious scenario $125.49, base $134.43, optimistic $151.39 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $193.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is AIAGF from its 52-week high?
Aurubis AG trades at $193.15, about 9% below its 52-week high of $211.21 and 57% above the low of $122.81 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $134.43 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aurubis AG?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ATI Inc, Carpenter Technology Corporation, Mueller Industries, Inc, Bharat Forge Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aurubis AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $193.15, calculated fair value $134.43 (−30%), Quality Score 54/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AIAGF calculated?
We run Aurubis AG through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $134.43, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Aurubis AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aurubis AG (AIAGF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $193.15. Our model-based fair value is $134.43, about −30% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aurubis AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($151.39). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Aurubis AG (AIAGF) come from?
Earnings per share at Aurubis AG grew +16.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.1 %, EBIT margin +7.0 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Aurubis AG

How large is the market capitalisation of Aurubis AG (AIAGF)?
The market capitalisation of Aurubis AG is $8.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Aurubis AG (AIAGF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Aurubis AG is 7.9. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Aurubis AG (AIAGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aurubis AG is 0.23 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aurubis AG (AIAGF)?
Earnings per share at Aurubis AG are $24.58 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aurubis AG (AIAGF)?
The dividend yield of Aurubis AG is 0.8% (payout 6.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aurubis AG (AIAGF)?
The net margin of Aurubis AG is 3.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aurubis AG (AIAGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aurubis AG is 17.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aurubis AG (AIAGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aurubis AG is 8.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aurubis AG (AIAGF)?
The operating margin of Aurubis AG is 10.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aurubis AG (AIAGF)?
Revenue at Aurubis AG is growing +21.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aurubis AG (AIAGF)?
Earnings per share at Aurubis AG are growing +195% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Aurubis AG (AIAGF) generate?
The free cash flow of Aurubis AG is −€97.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Aurubis AG (AIAGF) carry?
The net debt of Aurubis AG is €222M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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